Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Saturday, March 17, 2018

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Saturday, March 17, 2018

​​

RACE 1: Post 12:00 PT. Grade: X

Use: 6-Jungle Warfare

Forecast:  Jungle Warfare makes his first start as a gelding and certainly should improve.  His numbers are about the same on dirt as they are on grass, so this race, originally slated for turf but now on the main track, looks to be his for the asking.  We’ll make him a rolling exotic single pretty much by default.

 

​​RACE 2: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Cow Dog; 8-Go Girl Gone

Forecast: Go Girl Gone displayed a bit of ability when third in a similar event in her debut two weeks ago and if she can produce a forward move off short rest she can beat this modest group.  This shorter trip should be to her advantage.  Cow Dog chased tougher in her debut but second-timers in the Miyadi barn often improve, and this daughter of Old Topper should as well despite her rail post.  Let’s use both in our rolling exotics with preference on top to Go Girl Gone.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Barbara Beatrice; 4-Miss Sunset

Forecast:  This race has been taken off the turf, and that’s good news for Miss Sunset.  The daughter of Into Mischief just won the Spring Fever Stakes in gate-to-wire style over the Santa Anita main track and the surface switch won’t be an inconvenience to her, unlike some of the others.  Barbara Beatrice does her best running from off the pace and will be picking up the pieces late.  Let’s try to get by using just these two.

 

​​​RACE 4: Post: 1:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 4-Here and There; 5-Chromium; 8-Omdurman

Forecast: Omdurman lands the cozy outside post and projects to draft into a nice pace-stalking position and have every chance from there.  He gets a break in the weights combined with a significant (but logical) class drop and on pure form is strictly the one to beat.  Chromium likes this Santa Anita main track (three of his four career wins have come here) and earned a pretty decent figure when second vs. similar last month.  We’ll use him along with the horse that was third in that same $10,000 claimer, Here and There, a first-off-the-claim for Metz with decent prior off-track form and switching to Bejarano.

 

​​RACE 5: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: C

Use: 1-Run Like Rhett; 4-Miner’s Light; 6-Mr. Twinery; 9-Sagittari

Forecast:  This $25,000 claiming miler has been transferred to the main track.  Spread, spread, spread.  Mr. Twinery didn’t leave well vs. similar last time out on grass but could be the controlling speed today on the main track, assuming he breaks with his field.  On pedigree, there’s no reason he can’t route.  Sagittari earned a career top number when second over a wet-fast track under these conditions earlier this month and not much more will be needed to win today.  Run Like Rhett should be the most dangerous of the closers and has won over this main track in the past, while Miner’s Light shows up for a tag for the first time and could easily improve enough in this league to make some noise in the final furlong in what is just his second start since joining the Miller barn.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Easter Morn; 5-Jay Makes Us Laugh; 6-Make It a Triple

Forecast: Make It a Triple returns to the main track (probably his preferred surface) and seems well-placed to regain his winning form.  He’s a progressive sort, and a repeat of his highly-rated score vs. $16,000 claimers two runs back charts very well in this first-level allowance event.  Easter Morn manhandled a state-bred maiden field last month with a strong number and with another forward move today should be the one to fear most.  With Prat out of town, Rosario picks up a very live mount.  Jay Makes Us Laugh was a smart winner two races back but didn’t seem to handle the all-weather track at Golden Gate Fields last time out and faded under pressure in the final furlong.  He remains protected by Truman and rates a look off his best effort.

 

​​​RACE 7: Post 3:00 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 3-Johnny Ray; 5-Two Hail Marys; 11-Lil Milo

Forecast: Johnny Ray shows up in a claimer in his first start since last summer at Saratoga and will race without blinkers and as a first-time gelding.  The barn does well with layoff runners, and in a wide open maiden claimer this Heap-trained sophomore may be as good as any.  Two Hail Marys launches a comeback for new trainer Hess; the son of Slew’s Tiznow has been away for almost a year but flashed speed vs. straight maidens when last seen and looks like a very live item with Rosario taking the call.  Lil Milo is a first-timer with a speed pedigree and an acceptable work tab.  The son of Rocky Bar is worth including on a ticket or two.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: X

Use: 3-River Boyne; 5-Heck Yeah

Forecast: River Boyne packs a powerful late kick and should be capable of producing the last run but Heck Yeah is clearly the most dangerous of the pace-types and his only grass appearance (a sharp win down the hill) was visually very pleasing.  These two stick out; we’ll give River Boyne a slight edge on top but over a course that may have been softened by overnight rain it’s conceivable that he won’t display the same type of late acceleration.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics but otherwise sit it out.

 

RACE 9: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: C+

Use: 3-Mended; 6-Majestic Heat; 9-Mopotism; 10-Fault

Forecast: This year’s edition of the Grade-1 Santa Margarita Stakes is a completely wide open affair, especially when you consider that the main track might be in some state of wet.  Fault may be more of a grass specialist but she’s trained well enough on dirt to warrant a big look, and at this nine furlong trip might be able to wear down the leaders in the final furlong.  Mended is strictly the one to catch; she lost little when dropping a heartbreaker in the La Canada Stakes earlier this meeting and seems clearly the best of the speed types, though nine furlongs might be testing her limit.  Mopotism was no match for Unique Bella in the Santa Maria Stakes last month but doesn’t have to worry about her today, while Majestic Heat has been disappointing in her last two but may snap back with the switch to Nakatani.

 

​​​​​RACE 10: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 7-Call Me Home; 9-Ultimate Bango; 1-Fashionably Fast

Forecast: Call Me Home and Fashionably Fast finished two-three in a highly-rated race last month and both have room for further improvement with added experience.  We’re expecting the winner of this state-bred sprint for 3-year-olds to be one or the other, though we’ll also have a ticket or two using the first-timer Ultimate Bango, a Heap-trained gelding with speed breeding and a decent work tab.

 

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Saturday, March 17, 2018

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