Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Saturday, March 24, 2018

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Saturday, March 24, 2018

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RACE 1: Post 12:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Comes the Dream; 2-Eagle Screams; 4-Excessive Kid

Forecast: We’ll handicap the first race under the assumption that it will remain on grass.  Excessive Kid drops to his lowest level ever and is reunited with his “win” rider Frey.  He’s proven to be effective when there’s give in the ground and two of his three career victories have been accomplished over the Santa Anita lawn.  Comes the Dream makes his third start off a long layoff with a realistic class drop, gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Ceballos, and should be heard from in the final furlong.  He’s a two-time winner over this course and his recent numbers put him right there.  Eagle Screams, first off the claim for Miyadi (33% with a strong flat-bet profit), has the popular blinkers off angle going for him plus gets a break the weights, and a good inside draw.  The old gelding has 12 career wins and always must be respected.

 

​​RACE 2: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 1-Facts Matter; 5-Once On Whiskey

Forecast: Once On Whiskey closed a huge gap in his debut when second to stable mate Curly’s Rocket and today gets an extra furlong to work with for a barn that has strong stats with second-time starters.  The son of Bodemeister trained very well in the interim and should be hard to contain with a similar display of late speed.  Facts Matter has an improving pattern and seems like a logical exacta partner with ‘Whiskey.  The Hollendorfer-trained colt should be prominent throughout and have every chance.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 3-Fair Regis; 5-Powder

Forecast:  Fair Regis moves into the allowance ranks in search of her fourth straight score, and based on her present form – and her rising speed figures – the Falcone-trained filly seems more than capable of handling this class hike in stride.  She can be tough on the lead or from a stalking position, so Van Dyke, who takes over for the injured Bejarano, has a few options.  Powder seems the most dangerous of the speed types and should stick better today in her second start off a layoff.  These are the two we’ll include in our rolling exotics, with preference on top to Fair Regis.

 

​​​RACE 4: Post: 1:30 PT. Grade: B

Use:  2-Bob’s Bad Boy; 3-Fly First Class

Forecast: Fly First Class exits a strong, productive race, and with another forward move speed figure-wise the son of Eddington should be able to earn his diploma.  Bob’s Bad Boy flashed excellent speed in his first try down the hill vs. softer maiden claimers and hung on well to be third; on pure numbers he’s a fit with these despite the move to straight maiden company and appears to have found a home on grass.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and then press with extra tickets keying Fly First Class.

 

​​RACE 5: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: X

Single: 1-Paradise Woods

Forecast: Paradise Woods was worn down late by Unique Bella in the La Brea S.-G1 in late December and she doesn’t have to worry about that champion sprinter today, so the daughter of Union Rags looks like the logical top pick in a race that also includes the top class sprinting distaffers Skye Diamonds and Selcourt.  However, at even money on the morning line, ‘Woods offers no wagering value, so the best we can do is use her a short price rolling exotic single while otherwise passing the race.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 4-Palace Paynter; 8-Tengs Rhythm

Forecast: This maiden claiming sprint for 3-year-old fillies has a few question marks so proceed with caution.  Palace Paynter was far back in her only outing last summer vs. straight maiden rivals but could be a much better type this time around, especially against this considerably softer group.  Her workout times at Del Mar catch the eye, so she should be fit and ready for Miller.  Tengs Rhythm displayed promise in her debut last summer when a respectable second to a future stakes winner, but then was stopped on.  She returns for a tag – not a good sign – so we perhaps she not coming back as well as she left for Mullins.  We’ll use her, but not with any degree of confidence.   These are the two we’ll prefer, but if you find the need to go deeper, go right ahead.

 

​​​RACE 7: Post 3:00 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 4-Quick Finish; 7-Bad Boy Leroy

Forecast: Quick Finish is pretty fast on speed figures and really won’t have to improve off either one of his last two starts to defeat this starter’s allowance field.  The Blacker-trained gelding projects to the controlling speed and a shorter price than his 9/5 morning line odds.  Big Boy Leroy is worth including as a back-up or a saver; the Glatt-trained gelding doesn’t have the numbers that match up with the favorite but he’s quite eligible to improve following a dominant maiden claiming win last month and should have every chance from his comfortable outside draw.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 5-Ride Lady Ride; 6-Venice

Forecast: Ride Lady Ride takes a significant class drop from straight maiden to maiden-claiming and appears to have the kind of early speed that will make her very effective against this softer group.  The return to the main track shouldn’t be an issue for the daughter of Twirling Candy.  Venice ran well over wet-fast track when second vs. softer earlier this month; if she can duplicate that effort over dry land she should at least hit the board.  Ride Lady Ride gets top preference and we’ll have extra tickets keying her on top.

 

RACE 9: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: C+

Use: 2-Itsinthepost; 6-Aquaphobia; 9-Hayabusa One

Forecast: Itsinthepost seeks his third straight win and seems well-placed to continue his streak.  The French-bred gelding is a marathon specialist who can handle give in the ground, so conditions appear ideal for the Mullins-trained stayer who boasts six career wins over the local turf course.  Hayabusa One ran the favorite to a photo in the recent San Marcos Stakes and should run every bit as well today.  He’s a lightly-raced 5-year-old with room for further improvement, though he’s unproven over this trip.  Aquaphobia, a $25,000 claim three runs back, has improved for his new connections and gets tested for class.  He’s like to be pacesetter or pace presser and is worth using somewhere on your ticket at 10-1 on the morning line.

 

RACE 10: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 7-Velvet Jones; 9-Pray Anyway

Forecast: Velvet Jones, in the money in her last four starts, is overdue for a win and gets a likely spot in this restricted (nw-2) $12,500 claiming abbreviated sprint for fillies and mares.  She’s a perfect one-for-one at this trip and just earned a career top speed figure when second (while three lengths clear of the rest) vs. similar two weeks ago.  Pray Anyway is a big price on the morning line (15-1) but may be worth using.  This two-turn turf/synthetic specialist has been away since last May and makes her first start for Mulhall in a dirt sprint, so anything goes, but on her best day she’s good enough to compete at this level and could very well fire a big shot fresh.

 

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Saturday, March 24, 2018

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