Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Saturday, May 26, 2018

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Saturday, May 26, 2018

RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 1-Uber Star; 2-Allaboutmike

Forecast:  The first thing that jumps off the page in the opener is the lack of early pace, save for the sprinter-stretching-out Allaboutmike.  He’s unproven at this trip, but he’ll never get a better chance as the projected controlling speed.  Uber Star ran well in a productive race at this level last time out, lands the good rail, and on paper looks like the best of the closers.  We’re expecting Allaboutmike to get the trip so we’ll have extra ticketS keying him on top while also including ‘Star in our rolling exotics.

 

​​RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 3-Lucky Staxx; 6-Isee It in Hiseyes

Forecast:  Isee It in Hiseyes, in his second start off a layoff, adds blinkers for the first time and looks quick enough to control this abbreviated sprint from start to finish.  A recent bullet half mile workout over the training track should have this Miyadi-trained colt right on edge.  Lucky Staxx looked decent breaking his maiden vs. bottom-rung foes last month while earning a career top speed figure, and with another forward move today should be able to competitive right back.  We’ll prefer Isee It in Hiseyes on top but include both in rolling exotic play.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 5-Queen Laila; 6-Phantom Proton

Forecast:  Phantom Proton exits a strong race and was more than four clear of the rest when runner-up to the classier Marley’s Freedom last month.  Drawn comfortably outside, the Drysdale-trained filly should settle in a second flight position and then have every chance to pounce when ready.  Queen Laila crushed an optional $40,000 claiming field in her comeback last month and was promptly haltered by Jacobson, who protects her in her first out since.  In a race without much zip, the daughter of The Factor might be tough to catch if she can shake loose early.  We’ll prefer Phantom Proton on top but use both in our rolling exotics.

 

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT. Grade: B+

Use:  1-Party Dancer; 7-Resolu; 9-Ficanas

Forecast:  Ficanas makes her U. S. debut for Sadler with a string of good main track drills that should have her fit and ready.  An excellent runner-up despite a slow start in a big field in her only prior start last fall at Doncaster in England, she should simply outclass this group.  Resolu also displayed ability in her debut, winding up a close fourth over this course and distance earlier this month.  She seems certain to produce a forward move for Shirreffs and will be heard from late.  Party Dancer has the blinkers-off angle that we like so much and projects to enjoy an ideal ground-saving trip from the rail.  She’s worth tossing in on a ticket or two at 10-1 on the morning line.  Let’s go three-deep in our rolling exotics and then press with extra tickets keying Ficanas on top.

 

​​RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: X

Use: 2-Accelerate; 4-City of Light; 5-Dr. Dorr

Forecast:  This is a good one to watch, as the three favorites all appear capable of winning and are very difficult to separate.  City of Light is unproven at 10 furlongs but continues to improve and has won three straight, two of them Grade-1’s.  Accelerate just went down by a neck to ‘Light in Arkansas and before that won the Big ‘Cap at this trip.  Dr. Dorr gets the acid test but looked superb winning his last three, most recently the Californian with speed figure that makes him a major player at this level.  We’ll have no play in the race but include all three in our rolling exotics.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 4-What a View; 5-Kenjisstorm; 8-Syntax

Forecast:  The gamble here is against the 6/5 morning line favorite, Itsinthepost, who had a hard race in Kentucky last month (just as he had last year) and may feel the effects today (again, just as he did in 2017).  No question that he’ll be tough to beat with anything close to his best, but let’s go for a price instead.  Recent American S.-G3 winner What a View may not be able see out the trip, but he should have every chance as the clear controlling speed, and if he can relax early he could, in his present form, prove an elusive target.  Elliott stays aboard and will try to keep him together.  Kenjisstorm has run two excellent races since joining the D’Amato barn, retains Prat, and should fire another big shot again.  He’s better than his morning line of 8-1.  His D’Amato-trained barn mate, Syntax, is rounding to top for form and certainly will appreciate today’s extra quarter mile distance.  He’s always preferred to run second or third rather than win, and he has yet to visit the winner’s circle in five starts over the local lawn, but his healthy pattern indicates he’s ready for a top effort.

 

​​​RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: X

Single: 7-Baby Gronk

Forecast:  Baby Gronk gets a chance to make amends for his recent defeat at 50 cents on the dollar and should take full advantage of the opportunity.  In that last race he was five clear of the rest and earned a speed figure well-above par for the level; today’s field shouldn’t offer much resistance.  At 6/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower, the Spawr-trained gelding is a no-value rolling exotic single.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: X

Single: 7-Hawksmoor

Forecast:  With the scratching of Uni, Hawksmoor should have easy pickings in this Grade-1 nine furlong turf affair for fillies and mares.  Though she missed at odds-on in her seasonable debut at Laurel last month, the veteran Irish-bred mare should be fitter and stronger today and projects to be comfortably placed in a stalking position in a race without much speed.  There’s no value to be found, so we’ll pass the race other than to make her a rolling exotic single.

 

RACE 9: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: C+

Use: 1-North County Guy; 2-Katsumoto; 7-It’s a New Year

Forecast:  Katzumoto looks intriguing.  He makes his first start for Hofmans and his first start since chasing tougher in his debut last summer at Del Mar, and catches a very modest group of maiden claimers following as series of workouts that should have him fit and ready.  At 6-1 on the morning line he’ll be our top pick.  It’s a New Year has route numbers that are good enough to win, but he’s suspect sprinting (both of his one-turn races were uninspiring).  However, in a soft field and from a winning barn, has to be used.  We’ll also toss in North County Boy.  The Jacobson-trained gelding has steadily rising numbers and gets Leparoux, assuming he sticks around to ride him.

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Saturday, May 26, 2018

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