Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Sunday, April 1, 2018

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Sunday, April 1, 2018

​RACE 1: Post 11:30 PT. Grade: X

Single: 2-Fly to Mars

Forecast: Fly to Mars is listed at 8/5 on the morning line but probably will go lower.  He’s a course specialist with two wins and a second in three career starts down the hill, and he didn’t get the best of trips when suffering his lone defeat to stable mate Calculator in the Clocker’s Corner Stakes in late January.  He’s been training exceptionally well since that race for Miller,  can beat this field on the front end or from a stalking position, and is a logical short priced rolling exotic single.

 

​​RACE 2: Post 12:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 4-Wedding Blush; 6-Conquest Flatterme

Forecast: Wedding Blush doesn’t have the healthiest of patterns – she’s dropping again in class and is well below the $40,000 she was claimed for just two races ago – but if she has one good one left she’ll handle this group.  The Hollendorfer-trained mare should be on or near the pace throughout.  Conquest Flatterme beat a softer restricted (Nw-3) $16,000 field last month in clever style and might be this good, though on pure numbers she’s not as fast as ‘Blush.  Drawn comfortably outside for the high percentage Cerin barn, she’s worth using at least as a back-up or a saver.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: C

Use: 1-Fabrication; 5-Our Tiger’s Boy

Forecast:  There’s really nothing to like in this weak bottom-rung maiden claiming abbreviated sprint for 3-year-olds; the two that we’ll include in our rolling exotics rate top billing by default.  Fabrication, in the money in two of his last three, isn’t fast on numbers but nobody else in here is, either.  If he leaves cleanly from the rail, the Mulhall-trained gelding will have every chance.  Our Tiger’s Boy is slower on figures but is lightly raced and probably has more room to improve.  He’s got some early speed and may get brave.  Tread lightly.

 

​​​RACE 4: Post: 1:00 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 1-Melissa Jane; 4-Miss Boom Boom; 5-Vasilika

Forecast: Melissa Jane makes her U.S. debut for Powell in a starter’s handicap and is burdened with the co-high weight of 124 lbs. based on her strong French form  She ran for a tag earlier in her career, but most recently finished third, beaten just a neck, in a listed stakes at Deauville  on synthetic in early January.  She’s a first-time Lasix user and won’t be impacted by the return to grass.  Also, the recent workouts say she’s ready.  Vasilika, second off the claim for Hollendorfer, has excellent recent form and is the likely choice and one to beat.  She switches to Prat and should enjoy an ideal stalking trip.  Miss Boom Boom is a first-off-the-claim play for Baltas (superior stats with this angle) and has been first or second in five of eight career starts over the Santa Anita turf course.  This nine furlong trip is stretching her limit; nonetheless, she seems likely to fire another big shot today.  We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics while preferring Melissa Jane on top.

 

​​RACE 5: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: C

Use: 1-Gemini Journey; 5-Little Nati; 6-Winner’s Dream

Forecast: The late Pick-5 begins with a difficult restricted (Nw-3) $16,000 claimer for fillies and mares over a mile on the main track.  We’ll use three, but if you find the need to go deeper, go right ahead.  Winner’s Dream returns to her claim level for Carava after disappointing vs. slightly tougher foes in her most recent start over a wet track that she may not have cared for.  She’s back with Nakatani, and a repeat of her race before last might be good enough.  Little Nati has room for further improvement after winning a restricted (Nw-2) $12,500 affair in mid-February with a career top speed figure.  With another move, she’s right there.  Gemini Journey stretches out for Spawr and projects to be prominent throughout while saving ground.  She’s won over this main track in the past, has numbers that fit, and is worth including in an open fray.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 4-Bowie; 5-Spin Me a Kiss; 9-Zaffinah

Forecast: Bowie and Spin Me a Kiss exit the same race – a strong affair won by Blame It On Alphie (who came back to finish a close second the Mizdirection Stakes) – and are tough to separate in this second-level allowance sprint down the Hillside Course for fillies and mares.  Bowie was the 4/5 choice in that race but after making the pace faded late to wind up fourth.  A repeat of her entry-level allowance win two races back probably would be good enough.  Spin Me a Kiss, first or second in six of 10 career starts and a solid runner-up last time out, has good tactical speed and likely will settle in behind Bowie during the early stages.  Perhaps offering the best value in the field – she’s 5-1 on the morning line – is Zaffinah, who lands the good outside post and is reunited with her “win rider” Prat.  She’s proven over the course and is better than her last outing shows.

 

​​​RACE 7: Post 2:30 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 1-Coco Kisses; 4-Pulpiinthesky

Forecast: Coco Kisses tipped her hand in her debut when finishing an excellent second in a similar state-bred maiden sprint for fillies and mares, and if she can avoid trouble from the rail the daughter of Empire Way likely will earn her diploma.  A recent :59 flat (third fastest of 53) workout should have her right on edge.  Bay Area shipper Pulpininthesky is worth including as well.  A closing fourth in her only outing in late December, the daughter of Lucky Pulpit adds blinkers for new trainer Glatt and picks up Prat.  At 5-1 on the morning line she’s a “must use.”

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 3:00 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 2-Deal With It Dude; 7-Donworth; 10-Ike Walker

Forecast: This entry-level allowance optional claimer is fairly competitive, so we’ll use three and hope to get by.  Deal with It Dude has rising speed figures and is lightly raced with further improvement likely.  A strong third vs. similar over a wet fast track last month, the son of First Dude should enjoy a ground-saving, pace-stalking trip, and at 5-1 on the morning line offers decent value both in the exotics and in the straight pool.  Ike Walker is a first-off-the-claim for Miller and looks very live after just missing in a straight $40,000 seller in late February.  The old pro has won 10 races in his career and may be the most dangerous of the closing types.  Donworth, also from the Miller barn, has enjoyed an excellent season and is more than good enough to win with his best effort.

 

RACE 9: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 5-Goodwillambassador; 6-Camps Bay

Forecast: Goodwillambassador shows up in a claimer for the first time and may have found his winning level.  The D’Amato-trained colt is questionable both on turf and around two turns but in a race without a whole lot of speed he should have every chance either on the front end or from a comfortable stalking position.  Camps Bay is progressing nicely for Sadler and is the likely choice and one to beat after finishing a good third vs. high-priced maiden claimer over this course and distance last month.  Talamo will have him doing his best work late.

 

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Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Sunday, April 1, 2018

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