Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Sunday, April 22, 2018

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Sunday, April 22, 2018

RACE 1: Post 11:30 PT. Grade: C

Use: 3-She’s Light; 6-Token Vow; 7-Copper Fever; 9-Stradella Road

Forecast:  The opener – a downhill turf sprint for older maiden fillies and mares – looks fairly wide open, requiring a spread in rolling exotic play.  We’ll go four-deep but otherwise pass the race.  She’s Legal ($130,000) and Token Vow ($105,000), a pair of first-timers who brought big bucks at auction as 2-year-olds, finally make it to the races and both have shown enough in the a.m. to be considered contenders, and both are listed at 6-1 on the morning line.  Stradella Road has steadily rising speed figures and seems best of the known element, while Copper Fever, far back when well-beaten in her debut on dirt, could easily improve a bunch with the switch in surface.

 

​​RACE 2: Post 12:00 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 2-Poetic; 6-Not Now Carolyn

Forecast:  We’ve seen better 6/5 morning line favorites than Not Now Carolyn – she’s only 1-for-10 in her career – but on pure numbers the daughter of Tapit really should dominate.  Assuming she breaks well, she’ll likely secure a comfortable pace-prompting position outside and then have every chance from there.  Poetic stretches out for the first time and certainly has the pedigree to handle the trip.  She’s considerably slower on figures than the favorite but seems likely to produce a forward move.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics with preference on top to Not Now Carolyn.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Aunt Lubie; 6-Life of Illusion

Forecast:  Life of Illusion probably can’t beat a real good maiden but so far it’s taken a pretty good maiden to beat her.  She was more than four clear of the rest when second to the talented Wild At Midnight last time out while earning a career top speed figure and a similar effort today most likely will be good enough.,  Aunt Lobie, a first-timer by Uncle Mo, has done some good work in the morning for Mandella and looks live under Prat.  Both should be used in your rolling exotics.

 

​​​RACE 4: Post: 1:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use:  1-Kona Dreams; 6-Defiantly; 7-Tough It Out

Forecast: This is another difficult grass grab bag with several possibilities among the eight entrants.  Kona Dreams lands the good rail and should be the controlling speed.  He’s won on this course in the past, is solid in the speed figure department, and may get brave if not pressured early.  Defiantly drops to a realistic level and may be the one to fear most, though record over this turf leaves quite a bit to be desired.  Tough It Out is ambitiously placed in his first start since being claimed by Cerin, but this barn’s stats with this maneuver are strong, so we’ll toss him in under the assumption that the Grazen gelding will produce a significant forward move.

 

​​RACE 5: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Caray; 3-Spokane Eagle

Forecast:  Caray and Spokane Eagle exit the same race – a similar starter’s allowance sprint last month – and they finished heads apart when second and third, respectively.  ‘Eagle has had only five races and probably has more room to improve so we’ll put him slightly on top, but both are “must uses” in rolling exotic play.  On numbers, they tower over the others.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: X

Single: 2-Nessy

Forecast:  Nessy is 6/5 on the morning line in this year’s San Juan Capistrano Stakes and looks very much like it on paper, having just finished third in the Mac Diarmida Stakes at Gulfstream Park, just behind One Go All Go, who won yesterday’s Elkhorn Stakes at Keeneland.  The concern, of course, is that he’s just 2-for-20 lifetime, so a strong case can be made that he’s not one to trust.  But his recent form is excellent and on paper he simply outclasses the others, so you can use him as a no-value rolling exotic single or simply pass the race.

 

​​​RACE 7: Post 2:30 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 2-Top of the Game; 6-Law Abidin Citizen

Forecast:  Law Abidin Citizen looks intriguing in this second-level allowance main track miler in a race that may offer only a moderate early pace.  He’s very effective when on or near the lead and should enjoy an ideal pace-setting/prompting trip.  At 6-1 on the morning line he offers a bit of value both in the straight pool and in rolling exotic play.  Top of the Game has been overmatched of late but this drop into the optional claiming ranks could help get his confidence back.  He’s won four of his six career starts over the Santa Anita main track and might appreciate today’s switch to Franco.  Let’s give Law Abidin Citizen the edge on top and have an extra ticket or two keying him in the exotics.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 3:00 PT.  Grade: C

Single: 11-Blaze’n Prospector

Forecast: This bottom-rung $6,250 claiming sprint is loaded with runners who were once much better than this but have serious questions regarding current condition.  It’s a treacherous affair that probably is best left alone, but if you must, Blaze’n Prospector may be considered as a single under the assumption – shaky as that may be – that he has one good one left.  This will be his first start since November, but he’s fired fresh in the past and on pure numbers lays over the field.  Guy Code comes off an all-out win in a similar spot last month but was a voided claim.  It’s that kind of race.

 

RACE 9: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: C+

Use: 2-Red Shelby; 5-Fluorescent; 8-Beauty Divine

Forecast: The finale is an inscrutable downhill maiden claiming turf sprint for older fillies and mares.  We’ll use three but best advice is to include as many as you can afford.  Red Shelby, Fluorescent, and Beauty Divine all are dropping into a seller for the first time, always a powerful angle to lean on.  Red Shelby is the quickest of the three and could get brave against this group, while the second-time starter Fluorescent – exiting the same main track sprint as ‘Shelby – should improve with that experience behind her.  The switch to Prat is a positive factor for her.  Beauty Divine is re-equipped with blinkers and has the route-to-spring angle that often produces form reversals.  Fluorescent will be the best price of three (she’s 10-1 on the morning line) so we’ll put her on top.

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Sunday, April 22, 2018

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