Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Sunday, Feb. 18, 2018

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.


Sunday, February 18, 2018

​RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 1-Doubelievenmagic; 3-Meal Ticket; 8-Chalky

Forecast: Doubelievenmagic launches a comeback – she hasn’t been out since the summer of 2016 – and the fact that Hofmans brings her back protected indicates that she’s still well-liked by her connections.  The daughter of Majestic Warrior has just two races on her resume but if she can duplicate her Gulfstream Park debut performance she can beat this field at a nice price.  Look for Blanc to take her back early and then cut her loose late.  Meal Ticket came off a similar extended vacation as Doubelievenmagic when rallying to be second over this course and distance last month and has every right to produce a forward move with that effort under her belt.  Chalky closed a gap in her U.S. debut over a mile on grass without posing a real threat but today she shortens up and adds blinkers, so we’ll expect her to improve considerably.  These are the three we’ll be using in our rolling exotics; we’ll press on a few extra tickets keying Doubelievenmagic


​​RACE 2: Post 1:03 PT. Grade: B

Use: 2-Show Time Rocket; 3-Justify

Forecast: This maiden special weight sprint for 3-year-olds drew just five runners, two of which hail from the Baffert barn.  Justify has trained a like a nice sort and looks ready for a major effort first crack out of the box, but his stable mate Show Time Rocket has the benefit of a prior run in a productive race, and like most Baffert maidens should produce a significant forward move.  Either one can win so we’ll use both in our rolling exotics.


​​RACE 3: Post 1:36 PT. Grade: B+

Single: 4-Bay Muzik

Forecast:  Bay Muzik, away since May, returns waiver protected in this $32,000 claiming sprint restricted to 4-year-olds and has trained well enough up north at Golden Gate Fields to be fit and ready.  The son of Maclean’s Music is a solid fit on speed figures and could easily be a better type this time around.  At 4-1 on the morning line he’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.


​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:09 PT. Grade: B+

Use:  1-Hemp Hemp Hurray; 5-Colosi

Forecast:  Hemp Hemp Hurray, freshened since finishing unplaced in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, returns to a sprint where he belongs and ships in from Florida for this downhill turf dash for 3-year-olds.  He’ll race without blinkers for the first time and likely will inherit a good second flight, stalking position.  Colosi moved up a ton in his first start on grass, breaking his maiden under these conditions in very impressive fashion.  He could easily be this good and is a “must use” in rolling exotic play.


​​RACE 5: Post 2:42 PT. Grade: X

Use: 2-Awesome Anywhere; 7-Williston Dude

Forecast: 2-Awesome Anywhere earned a strong number when second in his debut vs. similar while more than eight lengths clear of the rest and if runs back to that performance he’ll break his maiden at a very short price.  As a saver, we’ll also have a ticket or two using Williston Dude, first off the claim for Glatt, adding blinkers, and switching to Talamo.


​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:14 PT. Grade: B+

Single: 4-Siberian Iris

Forecast: Siberian Iris flew home but ran out of real estate when second in a Hillside turf sprint in her recent comeback and today stretches out to a more suitable trip.  Prat stays aboard for Mandella and with good racing luck and a decent pace up front she should be along in time.  Let’s make her a straight play and rolling exotic single and hope to get close to her morning line of 5/2.

​​RACE 7: Post 3:46 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 3-Ransomed; 8-Velvet Jones

Forecast: Velvet Jones drops again in class while appearing to be on an unhealthy pattern.  The Miller-trained filly has no tactical speed over a track in which deep closers have a difficult time at all distances, but in a rather shallow field for $12,500 restricted to non-winners of two the daughter of Tiz Wonderful might be able to produce the last run.  We’ll use her in our rolling exotics but at 6/5 on the morning line she offers no real wagering value.  Ransomed doesn’t quite match up with Velvet Jones based on speed figures but she gets a break in the weights and should be prominent throughout in a field without much zip.  We’ll toss her in as well in a race that might be best left alone.

​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:18 PT.  Grade: X

Single: 6-Selcourt

Forecast:  Selcourt earned a career top speed figure when dismantling a softer field in her comeback and has trained extremely well since.  She has a tactical edge over her main rival Skye Diamonds, so we’ll take a stand and single the daughter of Tiz Wonderful in our rolling exotics.


​RACE 9: Post 4:50 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-Bunny Yogurt; 2-International Diva; 3-Mischievous Song

Forecast: High priced maiden claiming 3-year-old fillies meet over a mile on grass in the nightcap.  Let’s try to get by using the inside three.  International Diva is bred for turf on both sides of her pedigree and the Irish-bred filly seems well-meant in a wide open grab bag.  We suspect she’s a lot better than her 12-1 morning line would indicate.  Bunny Yogurt shows up for a tag for the first time and seems certain to improve.  She lands the good rail, switches to Desormeaux, and looks dangerous from off the pace.  Mischievous Song remove blinkers, stretches out for the first time, tries grass and switches to Bejarano.  She’s likely to employ gate-to-wire tactics.



Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Sunday, Feb. 18, 2018

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