Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Sunday, March 18, 2018

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Sunday, March 18, 2018

​RACE 1: Post 11:30 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 2-Just Be Held; 3-Mining Diamonds

Forecast: Mining Diamonds returns to her claim level and adds blinkers in her first outing since last September.  The work tab should have her fit enough to beat this restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claiming field, though at 9/5 on the morning line she doesn’t offer all that much value.  Just Be Held is one-for-16 lifetime but does have a decent record over this main track, and with a break in the weights coupled with a logical class drop the Vallejo-trained filly should be highly competitive.  ‘Diamonds gets top billing but both should be included in rolling exotic play.

 

​​RACE 2: Post 12:00 PT. Grade: C

Use: 2-Where’s the D; 6-Rosie My Rosie

Forecast: Rosie My Rosie is listed as the 6/5 morning line favorite in this $8,000 claiming miler for fillies and mares after just beating a $16,000 field last month.  Prior to that she was a voided $25,000 claim, so considering this unhealthy pattern the Hess-trained mare hardly qualifies as a dependable investment.  She certainly can win if she has one good one left, though.  Where’s the D stretches out, has the pedigree to get the trip, and though well-beaten at Los Alamitos in her most recent start seems capable of bouncing back with a big effort today.  We are anticipating gate-to-wire tactics.  Let’s try to get by using just these two in our rolling exotics but otherwise pass the race.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: C

Use: 4-Earnednevergiven; 5-Crazy Uncle Rick

Forecast: Crazy Uncle Rick shows up in a high-priced maiden claimer for the first time and may have found his proper level.  The son of Uncle Mo is the 6/5 morning line favorite and deserves to be, though at that price he’s fairly unattractive.  Earnednevergiven is a first timer with an okay work tab for Machowsky and certainly won’t have to be a world beater to act with these.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics.

 

​​​RACE 4: Post: 1:00 PT. Grade: B

Use:  1-Gray Admiral; 7-Risky Proposition

Forecast: Risky Proposition has the two-sprints-and-a-stretch out pattern we like and a pedigree that okay’s this two turn trip.  The Glatt-trained gelding is strong in the speed figure department and switches to Prat, so all systems are go.  Gray Admiral looked decent breaking his maiden over this course and distance recently in just his second career start and with another forward move may be tough right back.  Both should be used in your rolling exotics; we’ll have an extra ticket or two keying Risky Proposition on top.

 

​​RACE 5: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 4-Shining Armada; 7-Dizzy Diva

Forecast: Dizzy Diva, in the money in both of her starts since joining the Hofmans barn this year, lands the good outside post and should have every chance to earn her diploma in this bottom of the barrel maiden claiming sprint for older fillies and mares.  Shining Armada, third in the same race ‘Diva exits, has been a beaten favorite in her last pair and isn’t one to trust, but in a weak field she’s certainly not without a chance.  ‘Diva probably will win, but we’ll double the race in our rolling exotics.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Spectator; 2-Phantom Proton

Forecast: Spectator won her first two outings last summer including the Sorrento Stakes and then was a respectable third in the Del Mar Debutante.  She makes her first start since September in this second-level allowance sprint while facing older foes for the first time and has trained like she’s fit and ready to pick up where she left off.  The rail post is no bargain, but the D’Amato-trained daughter of Jimmy Creed seems a cut above this group.  Phantom Proton just won an entry-level allowance sprint last month with a career top number; she’s a late-running sprinter with the proper style for this extended sprint trip and in her present form is a “must use.”

 

​​​RACE 7: Post 2:30 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-Tony Blackjack; 4-Tina’s Exchange; 5-Quality Line

Forecast: This first-level allowance extended sprint appears quite competitive and requires a spread in rolling exotic play.  Quality Line is a fit on figures, likes this track, and may be capable of producing the last run, similar to what he did vs. starter’s allowance foes two runs back.  Tony Blackjack, a prototype late-running sprinter, lost his punch two-turning on turf last time out but is back where he belongs today and will be heard from late.  Tina’s Exchange, away since August but with the ability to fire fresh, has finished first or second in all five starts and is a genuine and consistent sort.  The Exchange Rate gelding should be prominent throughout.  Let’s give Quality Line a very slight edge on top but use all three in rolling exotic play.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 3:00 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 1-Madam Dancealot; 9-Sassy Little Lila

Forecast: Sassy Little Lila is a devoted front-runner and will try to establish the running in this nine-furlong turf stakes for fillies and mares.  She’s probably quicker than the other speed type, Midnight Crossing, so if she can get over from her outside post without undue pressure, she could take this field gate to wire.  Madam Dancealot was the beaten choice in the Buena Vista Stakes last month but can snap back with today’s extra furlong to work with.  First or second in eight of 16 career starts, the Irish-bred filly will be running on late.  We’ll use both while preferring ‘Lila on top.

 

RACE 9: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 6-Boom Boom Bango; 8-Champagne Honey

Forecast: Champagne Honey tipped her hand when finishing a good second (almost four clear of the rest) in a similar affair last month and really won’t have to improve much to graduate.  Baze should have her on or near the lead throughout.  Boom Boom Boom is a first-timer from the Puype barn, is bred to be quick, and shows an intriguing series of workouts.  We’ll prefer ‘Honey on top but double the race in our rolling exotics.

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Sunday, March 18, 2018

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