The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
Sunday, March 25, 2018
RACE 1: Post 11:30 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 3-Hot Headed Gal; 6-Broome
Forecast: Miller appears to holds the aces here. Broome shows up in a claimer for the first time, lands the cozy outside post, and gets an ideal opportunity to make amends for her recent failure at 50 cents on the dollar. Clearly, she’s good enough to beat this field with anything close to her best; however, she hardly qualifies as one to trust. Hot Headed Gal is a first-timer with an okay work tab for the same outfit and is a “must use” as well.
RACE 2: Post 12:00 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Twisted Road; 2-Beneficent
Forecast: Beneficent has done some very good work in the morning leading up to his long-awaited debut and this former $700,000 yearling purchase looks fit to fire at first asking. The Sherman barn doesn’t win many with first-timers but this son of Uncle Mo could prove to be the exception to the rule. Twisted Road, a distant second in his most recent outing in late January, has room for further improvement and will be a strong factor if he leaves cleanly from the rail. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top going to Beneficent.
RACE 3: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: C
Use: 2-Sierra Echo; 3-Sharon’s Fury
Forecast: This modest maiden claiming sprint lacks depth, so let’s try to get by using just two in our rolling exotics without otherwise getting involved. Sharon’s Fury was in the money in his last pair but burned money as the favorite in both of those outings. This appears to be a softer spot, so the son of Sky Mesa should stick better, but at 6/5 on the morning line he doesn’t offer any real value. Sierra Echo is a first-timer bred for speed and hails from a barn that can get them ready off modest workouts. Toss him in somewhere.
RACE 4: Post: 1:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Vasilika; 5-Siberian Iris; 6-Fahan Mura
Forecast: Vasilika shows two strong races over this turf course since arriving from New York and should fire another big shot today from her favorable rail draw. The Hollendorfer-trained filly earned a career top number when beating a first-level allowance field in her most recent outing and this raise in class should be within her capabilities. Siberian Iris is lightly raced with further improvement in her and today has the highly- effective blinkers off angle to help matters. Prat stays aboard and will have running on strongly late. Fahan Mura seeks her third straight win for the high-percentage Cerin barn. She’s slower on speed figures than the other two major players and steps up from a mid-range claimer to this more competitive allowance spot, but we’ll still include her on a ticket or two.
RACE 5: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Lambo Luxx; 2-Mesa Sky
Forecast: The main contention in this bottom-of-the-barrel claiming sprint is drawn inside, with Lambo Luxx and Mesa Sky the two main players. ‘Luxx just won gamely at this level and must be given a chance right back; however his rail post position and the addition of seven pounds makes his task much more difficult. ‘Sky missed by a head to ‘Luxx in that common race earlier this month and is a first-off-the-claim play today for Jacobson. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics but then press with Mesa Sky on top.
RACE 6: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 5-Mischievous Song; 9-Onassis
Forecast: Mischievous Song was pulled up and then walked off in a turf miler vs. tougher last time out; we’ll assume she’s okay and put her on top in this main track maiden $30,000 affair for fillies and mares. The Hollendorfer-trained daughter of Into Mischief should be on or near the lead throughout. Onassis has improving numbers for Miller and also shows the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch out pattern. The extreme outside draw at this distance is a concern but with another forward move it might not matter. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with slight preference on top to Mischievous Song.
RACE 7: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 6-Wild At Midnight
Forecast: Wild At Midnight was an excellent second in her only prior outing last May in a fast, highly-rated race; she returns for the Baffert barn with a series of strong workouts that should have her fit and ready. The daughter of Midnight Lute is listed at 9/5 on the morning line and probably will go a bit lower. She’s a logical rolling exotic single.
RACE 8: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Coniah; 5-Ancient Secret; 6-Blame It On Alphie
Forecast: This is a strong edition of the Mizdirection Stakes for older fillies and mares sprinting down the Hillside course. Blame It On Alphie appears to have found her niche as a late-running turf sprinter and gets ideal conditions today with plenty of speed to compliment her late kick. Her win over this course and distance last month vs. softer foes was visually pleasing; today she gets tested for class. Coniah battled bravely while going toe-to-toe with Selcourt in the Las Flores Stakes last month and was flattered when that one came back to win yesterday’s Santa Monica Stakes, The Morey-trained mare can handle any surface and looks very much like the best of pace types. Ancient Secret makes her first start since joining the D’Amato barn and has been especially impressive in the morning. Her form doesn’t quite match up with these, but she could easily be better type for her new connections, so at 12-1 on the morning she’s worth including as well.
RACE 9: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 3-Tizno’s Dilemma; 5-Tiki Bar Logic
Forecast: Tizno’s Dilemma and Tiki Bar Logic finished two-three in an nw-2 $12,500 claiming affair earlier last month and meet again today in what appears to be a softer field for the same price. ’Dilemma was overmatched in her most recent start when raised to the $25,000 level; she returns to reality today, switches to Roman, and should be heard from late. ‘Logic is most effective on the front end and will take them as far as she can. We’ll try to survive and advance using just these two.
RACE 10: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: C
Use: 1-Bear Skinned; 3-Thankful Every Day; 9-Guy Code
Forecast: This $6,250 abbreviated sprint is chaotic and inscrutable. We’ll use three, but if you can afford to go deeper, do so. Bear Skinned was claimed for $20,000 by Carava two races back and plummets to the bottom, not a healthy sign, for sure. But against this group the veteran gelding may get brave. Thankful Every Day just broke his maiden over this track and distance vs. very weak $20,000 foes. He’s a fit on numbers and probably the quickest in the field. Guy Code was once much better than these but has fallen on hard times. He’s in light and leaves from a cozy outside post, so perhaps in this league he’ll snap back to life.