Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Thursday, April 26, 2018

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Thursday, April 26, 2018

RACE 1: Post 12:00 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Angel Allie; 2-Tizanillusion; 4-Lightning Dove

Forecast:  The Thursday opener is a difficult downhill turf sprint for conditioned allowance fillies and mares.  We’ll use three without a strong degree of confidence and hope to survive and advance.  Angel Allie has speed figures that fit and takes a significant class drop into the claiming ranks for the first time.  She fits nicely in this league but will have to overcome her lack of tactical speed.  Tizanillusion and Lightning Dove exit the same race – they finished a half-length apart – with the latter getting up to win close home at 28-1 – and both should be major players again.

 

​​RACE 2: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 2-Captivate; 5-Tidal Effect

Forecast:  Tidal Effect makes his first start since being gelded and shortens from a mile while switching to Prat.  At this extended sprint trip, the son of Malibu Moon should be along in time.  Captivate has been a money burner and isn’t one to trust, but this is his first start in a seller so improvement is likely.  Both should be used in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Tidal Effect.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: C

Use: 4-Easter Fever; 7-Southern Treasure; -Kiss My Lulu

Forecast:  Bottom-rung older fillies and mares sprint five and one-half furlongs in the first leg of the Pick-6.  It’s a treacherous affair, as one might expect.  Southern Treasure and Kiss My Lulu, one-three finishers at this level over this track and distance in early February, are major players again and both have a right to run well despite returning from a two and one-half month vacation.  We’ll also include the class dropping Easter Fever, first or second in eight of 12 career starts over the Santa Anita main track.  Tread lightly here.

 

​​​RACE 4: Post: 1:30 PT. Grade: B

Use:  1-California Breeze; 9-Sweet Treat

Forecast: California Breeze drops to the bottom-rung and looks best in a weak affair.  She’ll have to overcome the rail, but if the daughter of Into Mischief can negotiate a good trip – and reproduce her turf figures on the main track – she’ll likely to be along in time.  Sweet Treat is slower on numbers than ‘Breeze and just failed at even money in a similar event when settling for second.  We’ll toss her in as a saver on a ticket.

 

​​RACE 5: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 2-Eddie Haskell; 6-Moonlight Drive; 8-Home Run Kitten

Forecast:  Moonlight Drive moves up a level for new trainer Jacobson following a clever win over this course and distance in mid-February.  Talamo stays aboard and will have this Italian-bred horse rolling late.  Home Run Kitten, second in the same race ‘Drive exits, is a past-classer with winning connections and will be heard from late with good racing luck.  Eddie Haskell, away for a year but returning in a realistic spot with numbers that can win, has trained well enough to be fit and ready and has run well fresh in the past (he won his debut, can’t get any fresher than that).  All three should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll give Moonlight Drive a very slight edge on top.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 3-Stringent; 10-Fire to the Wire

Forecast:  Stringent plummets in class while seeking his first win since June of 2015.  The veteran gelding has had plenty of issues but exits much tougher races without running too badly and should greatly appreciate the class relief.  Fire to the Wire was sharp in beating a $12,500 non-winners of two field last month and looks like a very live item while moving up to $16,000 non-winners of three.  We should be able to get past this race using just these two, with preference on top to Stringent.

 

​​​RACE 7: Post 3:00 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 6-Kawara; 8-Little Scotty

Forecast:  In his first career start on dirt (albeit in an off-the-turf affair), Little Scotty pressed the pace to the turn and then opened up at will to easily handle a $25,000 claiming field while earning a powerful speed figure.  Despite the raise in class to the optional $40,000 level, the son of Paddy O’Prado seems quite capable of repeating on the raise.  Kawara retains Prat and seems likely to produce a forward move in his third outing since being imported from Brazil.  He might appreciate patient handling from Prat.  Both should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll have extra tickets keying Little Scotty on top.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: B

Use:  4-Party Dancer; 5-Bring On the Band; 6-Rockin Ready

Forecast: Rockin Ready has the two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern that we like so much, and the daughter of More Than Ready should move up considerably at this one mile trip.  We expect that she’ll receive the patient ride that Talamo gave her in her debut when she just missed in a photo to subsequent Keeneland allowance winner Toinette.  Bring On the Band is an intriguing Irish invader with juvenile form that makes her a major player in her U.S. debut.  The workouts aren’t flashy but should have her fit and ready.  Party Dancer switches to Prat, boasts an improving pattern and will be dangerous with another forward move.

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Thursday, April 26, 2018

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