Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Thursday, Feb. 8, 2018

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Thursday, February 8, 2018

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RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 7-An Eddie Surprise; 9-Nothing But Heat

Forecast: We’ll pass on the newcomers and stick with experience in the opener using a pair of fillies exiting the same race and turning back in distance.  An Eddie Surprise ran well over this course and distance when second in her debut during the fall meeting and then finished third, beaten six lengths, over a mile vs. similar state-bred maiden competition last month.  Probably most effective sprinting, the O’Neill-trained daughter of Square Eddie looks logical though at 6/5 on the morning line offers no real value.  Nothing But Heat, two lengths behind An Eddie Surprise in that race, ran like she was in need of the outing and may have a bit more upside than her main rival.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics while going with the better price (‘Heat) slightly on top.

 

​​RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: C

Use: 4=Hardcore Troubador; 5-Swiss Minister

Forecast: Swiss Minister and Hardcore Troubador finished two-three in a similar state-bred first-level allowance sprint last month and look like the main players again today.  ‘Minister loves this track (five career wins) and can be counted on for his best effort, while ‘Troubador is clearly the controlling speed and will take them as far as he can.  Both should be included in rolling exotic play in a race that we’ll otherwise pass.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 3-Kentan Road; 6-Li’l Grazen

Forecast:  Kentan Road is the quickest of the quick and may never look back, especially with this class drop to the $32,000 level in a race restricted to 4-year-olds.  Li’l Grazen is the most dangerous of the closers and figures to bounce back after failing to land a blow vs. tougher down the hill just six days ago.  We’ll use these two in our rolling exotics while giving the more dependable Li’l Grazen the edge on top.

 

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use:  2-Tee Em Eye; 4-Pomp and Party

Forecast:  Pomp and Party, second in a similar sprint last month, should run at least as well today and seems the solid choice in this $16,000 restricted (nw-3) claimer for fillies and mares.  She’s won over this track in the past, doesn’t need the lead to be effective, and retains Elliott, who knows her well.  Tee Em Eye won competing this claiming price last summer and has been chasing tougher ever since.  This class drop seems warranted and the daughter of Cyclotron figures to be heard from late.  Both should be used in rolling exotic play with preference on top going to Pomp and Party.

 

​​RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Captain Ron; 4-Kopitar

Forecast: Kopitar shows up in a seller for the first time while turning back from a mile and has run well vs. tougher over this course and distance in the past.  He’s also adding blinkers for the first time.  Captain Ron showed he belonged at this level two runs back when a solid third, is re-equipped with blinkers in his first start since August, and seems quite capable of firing a big shot fresh.  The rail is no bargain but the son of Speightstown looks on paper to be the controlling speed.  Both should be included in rolling exotic play with Kopitar slightly preferred on top.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 3-Stoney’s Mr Cruiser; 6-Black Tie ‘n Tails; 10-Bargaining

Forecast: There’s little to trust in this bottom-rung $6,250 abbreviated sprint, so we’ll go three-deep and hope that’s enough.  Black Tie ‘n Tails has high profile winning connections and may go favored for that reason alone.  The veteran Vronsky gelding plummets to the bottom and has won over this track in the past, so if he has one good one left he should handle this task.  Stoney’s Mr Cruiser exits a tougher $10,000 affair and will go better in this league.  The Treece-trained gelding is winless in five starts over the local track but has earned speed figures that are better than par for this level.  Bargaining projects to be a strong pace factor and may stick around for awhile against this group.  He’s worth tossing in at 6-1 on the morning line.

​​RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 3-Move Over; 8-River Boyne

Forecast: River Boyne broke his maiden in highly impressive fashion earlier this meeting and looks capable of repeating on the raise despite the shortening of trip from nine furlongs to a flat mile.  The Irish-bred colt retains Prat and appears to have the necessary turn of foot to be effective at this distance.  Move Over probably wasn’t cranked up in his U.S. debut down the Hillside Course but still managed to finish a strong runner-up when closing with interest to be beaten just over a length.  The English-bred colt stretches out to what should be a more suitable distance and with a race under his belt figures to produce a significant forward move.  We’re expecting the winner to be one of these two.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade:  C

Use: 1-Ocean Bound; 3-Bragging Rights; 7-Lancakes; 11-Cinnamon Twist

Forecast:  The nightcap is an inscrutable bottom-rung maiden claiming sprint for sophomore fillies and mares.  Use as many as you can afford to.  Ocean Bound has shown some early zip, and despite being beaten 17 lengths in her last start earned a buried speed figure that actually charts very well here.  We’ll put her on top by default.  Cinnamon Twist drops into a claimer for the first time and will enjoy this much softer assignment.  She also adds blinkers, so if she can run at all she’ll be a factor.  Lancakes is a first-timer with okay works.  Low profile connections notwithstanding, she’s a “must use” due to the stranger danger factor.  Bragging Rights, another with early speed, shortens up a half-furlong and could produce a forward move in her second start off a layoff for a good barn.

 

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Thursday, Feb. 8, 2018

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