Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Thursday, Jan. 11, 2018

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Thursday, January 11, 2018

​RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 7-Rustic Canyon; 8-Culpable; 10-Jump the Tracks

Forecast: We’re going to assume that the turf races on today’s card will remain on grass.  Jump the Tracks has rising speed figures, drops into a claimer for the first time, and has the pedigree to handle the switch in surface and distance.  The outside draw does him no favors, but the son of Desert Code should be able to drop over and secure a favorable second-flight spot.  Rustic Canyon has the blinkers-off angle that we like so much and he, too, shows up in a claimer for the first time.  The son of Unusual Heat retains Roman and is likely to find himself on or near the lead throughout.  Culpable is a first-timer from the Mandella barn with Prat taking the call; based on connections alone the son of Blame warrants consideration.  Let’s try to get by using just these three while slightly prefer Jump the Tracks on top.

 

​​RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: C

Use: 2-Curlina Curlina; 3-Hope She Will

Forecast: Curlina Curlina is winless in 20 starts and yet by default is a contender in this bottom –rung maiden $20,000 claimer over a mile on the main track for fillies and mares.  That fact alone gives you an idea of how weak this race came up.  At least Hope She Will has had only six prior starts, so you’d have to assume she has more upside.  A filly with competitive speed figures but no real style, the Bruce Headley-trained has been freshened since mid-November and shows a decent runner-up try over this main track last summer.  Let’s use them both in rolling exotic play – you have my permission to toss Curlina Curlina if you’d prefer to cut down on your rolling exotic ticket – while otherwise passing the race.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 2-Arroiwsphere; 4-Tell Me More; 5-Paddy Jean

Forecast: Tell Me More makes her local debut for new trainer Miller in her first start since June and her first in a claimer.  She has trained like she’s fit and ready, catches a particularly soft field for the level, and offers value at anywhere close to her morning line of 6-1.  Arrowsphere is the logical pacesetter and will take them as far as she can, but always has been suspect under pressure in the final furlong.  Paddy Jean has hit the board in six of 10 starts and should be in the fray again.  On pure numbers, she’s probably the one to beat.  Let’s press with extra tickets keying Tell Me More but include all three in our rolling exotics.

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Revenue Virginius; 3-Princess Karenda

Forecast: Princess Karenda is a first-off-the-claim play for red-hot trainer Cerin and seems likely to display improvement for her new connections.  The veteran daughter of Benchmark always has been especially fond of the Santa Anita main track (in the money in 14 of 18 career starts), gets a break in the weights with the switch to Roman, and looks capable of producing the last run.  Revenue Virginius, claimed in six of her last seven starts, returns to the Hollendorfer barn in a sign of confidence, switches to Bejarano, and is another with an excellent record over the local main strip.  The rail is no bargain but with good racing luck she’ll be right there.  Let’s give Princess Karenda a very slight edge on top while including both in rolling exotic slay.

 

​​RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 3-Wicked Storm; 5-Ms Dupree; 12-Gracious Me

Forecast: Gracious Me tipped her hand with a strong runner-up performance in her debut last month at Los Alamitos and probably won’t have to improve much at all to graduate today in this restricted straight maiden sprint for sophomore fillies.  She switches to Cerin’s main man Desormeaux and is drawn comfortably outside.  Ms Dupree has trained okay for her debut and clearly won’t have to be a world beater to act with these.  Maidens from the D’Amato barn often run better than they work.  Wicked Storm is bred to be quick and has shown enough in the a.m. to give her a look.  At 6-1 on the morning line she’s worth tossing in.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 2-Wild Lando; 7-Animo

Forecast: Wild Lando has shown a bit of run in his first three outings and looks logical in this uninspiring state-bred maiden special weight sprint.  The son of Empire Way was a beaten choice in a hot race up north last time out but on pure numbers should be more than good enough to handle this task.  Animo represents stranger danger in the form of a first-time starter with a useful work tab.  The barn doesn’t win with debut runners but a little will go a long way here.  Both should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll have extra tickets keying Wild Lando.

 

​​​RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B-

Use:  1-Lucky Student; 5-Where’s the D

Forecast: Low-level claiming fillies and mares sprint six furlongs in the penultimate race on the program.  Lucky Student removes blinkers in her second start off a long layoff and should produce a forward move after displaying speed but fading late vs. similar at Los Alamitos last month.  If she can leave cleanly from the rail and make the running, the Craig Dollase-trained mare could be hard to catch.  Where’s the D returns to her claim level for Machowsky, has a prior win over this main track and projects to draft into a good pace-stalking position and have every chance.  Let’s try to survive and advance using just these two.

​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 3-Pomp and Party; 5-Tuscany Beauty; 7-Rizzi’s Honors

Forecast:  The finale is a restricted (nw-3) $16,000 claimer for fillies and mares.  Rizzi’s Honors returns to her claim level for hot trainer Glatt, retains “win rider” Baze and should find herself comfortably placed outside.  In the money in seven of eight career starts over the main track at Santa Anita, she has current numbers that fit and offers wagering value at her morning line of 8-1.  Pomp and Party won a $20,000 claimer at Del Mar in late November and returns after six weeks on the sidelines for $16,000, not really a healthy pattern.  However, if she has another good one in her she’ll be right there.  Tuscany Beauty is only 2-for-19 lifetime and not one to trust in the final furlong, but she has dangerous early speed and may get brave if she can shake loose early.

 

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Thursday, Jan. 11, 2018

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