Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Thursday, Jan. 25, 2018

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Thursday, January 25, 2018

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RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: C

Use:  4-Lovely Linda; 5-Yaffe

Forecast: Lovely Linda returns to the main track, drops to her lowest level ever and should be able to stick around for a long time in a field lacking in effective closers.  She’s hard one to trust but if she shake loose early she could get brave late.  Yaffe, away since October and also plummeting in class, is a one-paced plodding sort but is a strong fit on speed figures and should be heard from in the final furlong.  In a race that might otherwise be best avoided, we’ll use both in our rolling exotics.

 

​​RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B+

Single: 5-Alternate Rhythm

Forecast: Alternate Rhythm is a rolling single by default in this six-runner modest sprint.  The Mullins-trained gelding is making the always pivotal straight maiden to maiden claiming class drop in addition to adding blinkers for the first time.  The son of Alternation has back numbers that are more than good enough to win at this level, exits a fast, highly-rated and produce race, and really has little to beat, at least among the known element.

​RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: C

Use: 2-Crown the Kitten; 8-Street Moxie; 9-Southern Freedom

Forecast:  Southern Freedom makes her fourth consecutive class drop and must leave from the extreme outside post position in this one mile turf affair in her first start since August.  However, she’s run well over this course in the past, switches to hot-riding Bejarano, and may be capable of firing a bit shot fresh.  We’ll use her, but certainly not single her.  Crown the Kitten, first off the claim for Desormeaux (excellent stats with this angle), returns after a nearly 10 week vacation another is another eligible to run very well fresh.  The negative is that she’s winless in seven starts over this turf course and always has preferred to run second or third rather than win.  Street Moxie is an intriguing Northern California invader adding blinkers for the first time while returning to her claim level.  Wong, who usually hits at more than 30 percent and even higher at certain locals, most likely will try to employ gate to wire tactics.  We’ll try to get by using just these three but if find the need to go deeper, go right ahead.

 

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: B+

Single:  1-Tea for Tam

Forecast:  Team for Tam was well-backed in her debut last fall but didn’t run to her works and was well-beaten in what turned out to be a fast, highly-rated race.  She continues to impress in the morning and seems certain to improve a ton while stretching out to a distance that should be much more to her liking.  The daughter of Malibu Moon might even find herself on the lead from her rail post, assuming she breaks with her field.  Let’s make her a straight play and rolling exotic single.

​RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: C

Use:  1-Shining Armada; 6-Crimsoned N Clover; 8-Dressed in Panda; 11-Topaz Time

Forecast: There is nothing to trust in this bottom-rung maiden claiming sprint for older fillies and mares, so the best advice is to use as many as you can afford to.  Shining Armada, an okay second in her debut at Los Alamitos, has the most room to improve so we’ll put her on top and hope that she leaves cleanly from the rail.  Crimsoned N Clover has enough early speed to be an early factor and should stick much better at this five and one-half furlong trip.  Dressed in Panda is a fit on figures and has hit the board in three of course career starts over the Santa Anita main track.  She won’t have to improve much to win.  Topaz Time shows up at the maiden $20,000 level for the first time and has back figures that are good enough to beat a field like this.  Tread lightly here.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Blame It On Alphie; 5-Spin Me a Kiss; 9-Angel Allie

Forecast: Second-level allowance fillies and mares sprint down the hill in a typical grass grab bag requiring a spread.   Blame It On Alphie has been routing all of her life and could easily be very effective in her first career sprint.  She has won off the pace going a mile, so we assume similar late-running tactics will be employed today.  Spin Me a Kiss missed by a neck in the Unzip Me Stakes under these conditions last September and not much more will be needed to beat this field.  Away since the fall but sporting a sharp recent work tab, the D’Amato-trained daughter of Hard Spun may be the one to beat.  Angel Allie, away since winning over this course and distance during the fall meeting with monster speed figures, looks capable of handling this tougher task if she’s cranked up; however, the work tab looks a little light.  The late running daughter of Sky Mesa has run well fresh in the past (she won her debut, can’t get any fresher than that), so we’ll consider her a contender as well.

​​RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B_

Use: 1-Line Drive; 4-Uno Trouble Maker; 5-Fracas

Forecast: Uno Trouble Maker is a first-off-the-claim for Miller (24% with a flat-bet profit) and seems certain to improve following a visual pleasing if not particularly fast maiden claiming score last month.  She’s protected today in a sign of confidence, switches to Prat, and has the proper style for this extended sprint distance.  Fracas is a fit on numbers and shows good, solid, consistent sprint form.  She moves up a notch for new trainer Marquez, gets the cozy outside post, and switches to Bejarano.   Lino Drive just crushed a poor maiden claiming field by 17 lengths and earned a giant speed figure in doing so.  O’Neill wheels her back in six days while facing tougher foes in what certainly qualifies as a classic bounce maneuver.  We’ll toss her in as a saver, nothing more.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: C+

Use: 7-Khaleesi; 9-Lori’s Attitude

Forecast:  We’ll double the finale, a downhill grass starter’s allowance event for fillies and mares.  The bad news is that, combined, Lori’s Attitude and Khaleesi are zero-for-12 lifetime over this course and distance.  ‘Attitude has hit the board five times under these conditions and has the route-to-sprint angle we like, so we’re expecting the Gaines-trained mare to fire a good shot.  Khaleesi is a first-off-the-claim for Machowsky turning back to a sprint in her first outing since November.  She’s protected, so we assume the Brazilian-bred daughter of Kitten’s Joy is doing well.  We’ll prefer these two if something else catching your eye, go for it.

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Thursday, Jan. 25, 2018

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