Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Thursday, Jan. 10, 2019

 

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go four-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

SANTA ANITA

Thursday, January 10, 2019

​RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 2-Halo Darlin; 6-Goseecal

Forecast: Goseecal has been away since August but has a history of firing fresh, and this return to the mid-level claiming ranks seems logical.  Both of her career wins were accomplished over the Santa Anita turf course, her numbers are strong, and in a $35,000 seller restricted to non-winners of three the Cerin-trained mare should greatly appreciate the class relief.  There’s value at her morning line of 3-1 if you can get it.  Halo Darlin might be worth using as a saver; she’s a first-off-the-claim for Becerra and is stretching out again with prior two-turn numbers that put her in the hunt.

 

​​RACE 2: Post 1:02 PT. Grade: X

Use: 2-Victory Element; 6-Candy Cornell

Forecast: Away since last spring but training like he’s fit and ready, Victory Element won’t be offering any value at 6/5 on the morning line but the Baffert-trained colt appears to have very little to beat in this six-runner affair for older maidens.  The son of Pioneerof the Nile ran well sprinting in his debut when second over this main track last April and then was second again at odds-on in a two-turn affair the following month before being stopped on.  He’s plenty fit based on his work tab.  Candy Cornell might be worth using as a back-up; the son of Candy Ride has a big figure to go back to - a sharp runner-up effort in his debut at Del Mar back in the fall of 2017 – but his activity pattern has been spotty and his last two outings fell far short of his first start.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 1:32 PT. Grade: X

Single: 1-Slewgoodtobetrue

Forecast:Slewgoodtobetrue has the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern and a pedigree that should allow her to handle the added distance if this maiden main track miler for 3-year-old fillies.  On pure form she’s a standout, hence her morning line of even money, so while she’ll obviously not offer any wagering value in the straight pool we can use her as a rolling exotic single and move on.

 

​​​RACE 4: Post 2:02 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Girl Downstairs; 3-Miss Boom Boom

Forecast: Girl Downstairs makes her first start since being claimed in late November by Miller (27% with this angle), retains Prat, lands the good rail, and has run well over this course in the past.  A bullet five-furlong workout at San Luis Rey Downs late in December indicates she’s doing well, so we’re expecting a major effort from the veteran daughter of A. P. Warrior.  Miss Boom Boom also should be included in rolling exotic play; the Baltas-trained mare exits a fast, highly-rated and productive race (though well-beaten), has two prior wins over the course, and switches to Rosario.  This drop into the $25,000 claiming ranks (she was claimed for $40,000 two races back) might be viewed as suspicious to some, but we’ll go with theory that the barn is merely being realistic and simply trying to win a race.

 

​​RACE 5: Post 2:32 PT. Grade: C

Use: 2-Nice Work; 3-Drink; 5-Gran Martillo; 7-Dyf

Forecast: This is one of the weaker maiden $50,000 claimers for 3-year-olds that we’ve seen in awhile and nothing would surprise us.  We’ll go four-deep without any great conviction.  Gran Martillo finished with interest to be third in his debut and has a right to move forward with that effort behind him.  He gets an extra furlong to work with today and should be heard from in the final furlong.  Dyf is a first-time gelding and also will be adding blinkers, so there’s reason to believe he can improve as well.  Freshened since November, returning to the main track, and turning back to a sprint, the Powell-trained son of Midshipman switches to Prat and should be competitive in a weak field.  We’ll also toss in the second-time starter Nice Work, a class dropper trying dirt and landing Rosario, and Drink, a second time starter adding blinkers, switching to Van Dyke and dropping from straight maiden to maiden claiming.

 

​​RACE 6: Post 3:02 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 1-Ladybug; 2-Sheza Chattycat

Forecast:Ladybug must overcome the rail in this downhill turf sprint for $40,000 claiming fillies and mares but we believe the daughter of Medaglia d’Oro will return to her best form against this softer company.  She broke her maiden over this course and distance last summer but has been unsuccessful since when facing competition that was out of her reach; however, in her first outing since November and with a recent sharp workout to have her on edge, the Sadler-trained filly seems set for significant forward move.  Sheza Chattycat is the one to fear most and should be included at least as a back-up in rolling exotic play.  In a field that appears to lack pace, the Trappe Shot mare could find herself on or near slow early splits and could stick around a long time if such a projected race flow materializes.

 

RACE 7: Post 3:32 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Kochees; 4-Allaboutaction

Forecast: We’ll go two-deep in the seventh race, a $40,000 claiming main track sprint for older horses.  Allaboutaction is listed as the 5/2 morning line choice, and while we’ll use him, we’re not sure we trust him.  Yes, the son of Candy Rise shows an excellent lifetime win percentage (8-for-28) and his record over the local main track is even more impressive (4 wins, 2 seconds in 6 starts) but most of his success was earned for high percentages trainers like Miller, Hollendorfer, and Baltas.  We’re just not sure if we can expect the same consistent results for Sierra.  Kochees doesn’t train like much in the morning but when it counts he generally lays his body down.  In the money in his last pair, most recently in a tough starter’s allowance race while five lengths clear of the rest, the Hollendorfer-trained gelding is a win-machine with good prior form over the Santa Anita main track.

 

​​RACE 8: Post 4:02 PT. Grade: B

Use: 4-S Y Sky; 5-Show It N Moe It

Forecast: It’s been awhile since S Y Sky actually crossed the wire first in a race – her most recent win came via disqualification – but the daughter of Grazen has never been off the board in seven starts and is a black type winner over the Santa Anita main track, having won the Melair Stakes during the summer of 2017.  In this open allowance extended sprint for California-bred fillies and mares, the D’Amato-trained daughter of Grazen likely will be a short price favorite (she’s 8/5 on the morning line) due to a pace flow that favors her stalking/pressing style.  Show It N Moe It exits a pair of difficult stakes races that she wasn’t quite up to, but in this spot the Sherlock-trained filly should prove to be competitive.  She’s a three-time winner over the Santa Anita main track and likely will find herself within range throughout with clear sailing outside.

 

​​RACE 9: Post 4:32 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 3-Smoovie; 5-Oh Pretty Woman

Forecast:Oh Pretty Woman ran extremely well in her only prior start down the Hillside course last summer, and after being freshened since August the daughter of Scat Daddy returns under ideal conditions with a work tab that indicates she’s fit and ready.  We’re expecting Van Dyke to have her along in time, and if you can get close to her morning line of 4-1, all the better.  Smoovie may have found a home on grass and is worth including somewhere on your ticket as a saver.  Third in a similar state-bred maiden turf sprint in early November, she returns for O’Neill sporting a bullet five-furlong gate drill on the main track late last month and should be prominent throughout.

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Thursday, Jan. 10, 2019

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