The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
Thursday, June 21, 2018
RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Mongolian Window; 5-An Eddie Surprise; 6-Classy Atlantic
Forecast: The opener is a grass grab bag down the hill for $50,000 claiming sophomore fillies. We’ll use three and it’s tough to separate them. Mongolian Window turns back from a route, returns to the claiming ranks, and sports a bullet half mile workout since raced. She has rising numbers, but the concern is that she’s being dangled for $25,000 less than what she was claimed for and has run only twice since February. Still, we like her slightly on top. Classic Atlantic makes her first start for a tag and should appreciate the softer company. She exits a highly-rated allowance mile affair, but this is her first start since the third week of April. The good news is that Glatt has a strong record with layoff runners and she’s won sprinting on turf here in the past. An Eddie Surprise, first or second in six of seven starts over this unique course, should fire another big shot and may be the most dangerous of the closing types.
RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Studly Perfection; 6-On the Rocks
Forecast: Studly Perfection drops to her lowest level ever and may have found her friends. She’s won at this distance over this track and is stretching out again as the projected controlling speed. On the Rocks is a perfect one-for-one around two turns and has the classic two sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern for Machowsky. The daughter of Lucky Pulpit should draft into an ideal pace-stalking position outside and have every chance.
RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 3-Courteous; 6-Bizwhacks; 9-True Validity
Forecast: On paper, this appears to be a strong baby race for fillies. Courteous looks like a rocket ship for Mandella; she’s done excellent work in the morning and seems plenty fit and ready. We’ll put her on top but also include two other highly-regarded first-timers. True Validity breezed 9 4/5 seconds (fastest in the sale) at OBS in April and then brought $270,000 at auction. The daughter of Yes It’s True gets Prat and seems cranked up and ready. Bizwhacks has been training well at San Luis Rey Downs for O’Neill; she’s from the first crop of Fed Biz and went 21 2/5 seconds at the same sale as True Validity before selling for $200,000.
RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT. Grade: C
Use: 6-Royal C; 7-Heloise; 8-Tengs Rhythm
Forecast: The fourth race is a maiden claiming miler for 3-year-old fillies. Heloise closed a gap in her debut when fifth, beaten less than three lengths, and certainly is bred to improve routing (Richard’s Kid). The Cerin barn has excellent stats with the sprint-to-route angle, so we’re expecting an improved effort. Royal C has a similar pattern; she’s stretching out after displaying some late speed debuting last month and is another with a pedigree to allow a forward move over a distance of ground. Tengs Rhythm, in the money in all four of her starts, doesn’t necessarily have the bloodlines to stretch out successfully but she does have an experience edge over the other two main contenders and earned a career top speed figure in her most recent start.
RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Captain Buzzkill; 3-Jet Set Ruler; 10-Clyde’s Pride
Forecast: State-bred maidens meet over a mile on turf in the fifth race. We’ll go three-deep in our rolling exotics and hope that’s sufficient. Jet Set Ruler, a second-time starter with a sprint prep down the hill under his belt, stretches out for Baltas (good stats) and makes a major jockey switch to Prat. He exits a stronger race than the one he’s in today, so we’ll give him the edge on top. Captain Buzzkill has rising speed figures, a good inside post, and retains Bejarano. He’ll have every chance with a good ground-saving trip. Clyde’s Pride will have to overcome the extreme outside post but if he can negotiate a decent trip the son of Good Journey will be a major factor after flashing ability when finishing second in his first two career outings.
RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Looking At Thelake; 6-Duranga; 7-Party Hostess
Forecast: This extended sprint for restricted (Nw-3) $16,000 claiming fillies and mares is another difficult affair that requires a spread. Party Hostess, second in her lat pair at this level, should fire another good shot and is a major player. Beaten a neck while more than three lengths clear of a next out winner last time out, the Hollendorfer-trained mare should be forwardly placed and have every chance. The “other” Hollendorfer, Duranga, just won an Nw-2 $12,500 affair with a numbers makes her competitive on the raise. Prat stays aboard. Looking At TheLake has one win and 11 seconds or thirds and certainly is not one to trust, but she was second in her only prior dirt start and could be a late threat. She was shut off and eliminated at a critical stage in her most recent outing going long on the lawn.
RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Achira; 3-Wind Tartare; 7-Moonless Sky
Forecast: This second-level turf miler for fillies and mares is yet another challenging race on a very challenging card. Wind Tartare is an intriguing East Coast invader making her first start since last October for Baltas, who has put a series of solid works into the French-bred filly at San Luis Rey Downs. Stakes-placed overseas and with speed figures at Laurel and Monmouth Park last year that puts her in the fray, she looks very much like a live item in her 2018 bow. Achira should be the controlling speed and is strong on numbers, having defeated a next out winner in gate-to-wire fashion vs. slightly softer foes in early May. She switches to Stevens and will be tough to catch if not pressured early. Moonless Sky has won four of seven career starts over the Santa Anita lawn and is better than her unplaced performance in the Fran’s Valentine Stakes appears on paper. She’ll be running on late, but could use some help up front.
RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: B+
Forecast: Tapalita drops to the bottom and has back speed figures that are more than good enough to win at this level. The Hendricks-trained filly has the kind of early speed that will place her on or near the lead throughout, and with a healthy work pattern since raced she should be set for a forward move. Let’s make her a straight play and rolling exotic single.