The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
Thursday, March 15, 2018
RACE 1: Post 12:00 PT. Grade: C
Use: 2-Get Yourself Home; 7-Nice Ice; 8-Wishful
Forecast: There will be no turf racing today, and due to the overnight rains the main track is likely to be in some state of off condition. The opener is inscrutable; we’ll go three deep but not with any degree of confidence. Nice Ice exits the Cal Cup Oaks (wasn’t beaten too badly) and has a pedigree that should allow her to handle a wet surface. The daughter of Northern Afleet figures to be doing her best work late. Wishful flashed speed down the hill and just missed last month; a similar effort today puts her squarely in the hunt. Get Yourself Home has been disappointing but retains Bejarano and adds blinkers, so we’ll toss her in as well.
RACE 2: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: C
Use: 1-Willy Tell Him; 5-Don’t Stalk Me
Forecast: Just five runners show up in this $20,000 claimer for 3-year-olds, two of which come from the Miyadi barn, and both are suspicious. Don’t Stalk Me won his debut last summer at Los Alamitos but was stopped on; he returns cheap so we assume the connections are more than willing to lose him. The son of Kafwain is bred to excel on an off track, so if he has one good one left he’ll be the horse to beat. Stable mate Willy Tell Him beat a maiden $50,000 field gamely in his debut last month but was a voided claim and today returns with a substantial drop in claiming value. Who knows what kind of shape he’s in? We’ll include both in our rolling exotics but otherwise pass the race.
RACE 3: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: C
Use: 2-Bourbon Dude; 5-Optic
Forecast: Optic is wheeled back quickly after losing all chance at the start in a slightly stronger maiden claiming sprint last week for the Desormeaux brothers. If he leaves with his field today, the son of Gemologist can handle this group, and the off track shouldn’t be an issue for him based on pedigree. The likely choice and one to beat is Bourbon Dude, though this third consecutive class drop isn’t what you’d call a healthy pattern. This is another race that may be best left alone.
RACE 4: Post: 1:30 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 8-Becomes a Queen
Forecast: Becomes a Queen has done some good work in the a.m. – she appears much better than her moderate workout times would indicate – and looks well-spotted for a major effort first time out in a below par race for state-bred older maiden fillies and mares. Let’s go with the fresh face as a straight play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 5: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Plane Lucky; 5-Devil’s Beauty
Forecast: Plane Lucky plummets in class in her first outing since December; she’ll beat this field with anything close to her best effort. Her only prior off-track race was good and she’s always run well over this main track. Devil’s Beauty moves up a notch for new connections following a fair runner-up effort; she has room to improve for a barn that boasts excellent recent stats with the first-off-the-claim angle and in a modest field looks like the one to fear most.
RACE 6: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 4-Strike At Daylight
Forecast: Strike At Daylight ran away and hid in her debut vs. maiden claimers in her debut last month while earning a strong speed figure and today makes her first start since being purchased privately by the Miller barn. She looks more than capable of dominating right back in this starter’s allowance sprint but should go lower than her morning line of 5/2. We’ll use her as a rolling exotic single.
RACE 7: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: C
Use: 2-Ryder’s Starlight; 8-Sturdy One; 10-Revenue Virginius
Forecast: This off-the-turf sprint is a messy affair. Sturdy One, a solid runner-up vs. similar last time out, goes for the Miller barn today and should run at least as well if not better. She has a good stalking style that insures a clean trip. Revenue Virginius lands the cozy outside draw and her second place finish behind Sturdy One two races back charts well here. Ryder’s Starlet is double-jumped in class in her first start since being claimed by the hot Cerin barn (terrific stats with this angle) so we’re anticipating a forward move. She should be running on late.
RACE 8: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-R Cha Cha; 10-Awesome Anywhere
Forecast: Awesome Anywhere projects to enjoy a soft pace-stalking trip outside and can win right back after a facile score vs. bottom-rung maiden claimers last month. His pedigree says a wet track will be no issue. R Cha Cha goes for Baltas today and removes blinkers in his first start since last summer. He gets a break in the weights with Ceballos aboard and is another bred to handle any type of off track.