Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Thursday, March 29, 2018

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.


Thursday, March 29, 2018


RACE 1: Post 12:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Friendly Outthedor; 2-Gosilently; 4-Frankincese

Forecast:  Frankincense so far has promised more than he’s delivered, but the son of Frankel switches to Prat and will get an extra furlong to work with while adding blinkers for the first time.  We’ll give him one more chance.  Friendly Outthedor returns to turf – apparently his preferred surface – and with a repeat of his race before last the Eurton-trained gelding should be in the thick of it.  Gosilently is a 12-race maiden and not really one to trust, but he continues to knock on the door and is a solid fit on numbers, so we’ll toss him in on a ticket or two.


​​RACE 2: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Tenthousandreasons; 2-Blame the Weather

Forecast:  The main contention is this maiden $20,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares is drawn inside with preference on top going to Tenthousandreasons.  She has competitive figures based on her races from last summer, and in her second off a layoff for Dollase and with the addition of blinkers the daughter of Ministers Wild Cat should produce a significant forward move.  Blame the Weather has plenty of zip and could get brave against this soft group, though that final furlong will be “hold your breath” time.


​​RACE 3: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 4-Ketos; 7-Street Vision

Forecast: This $25,000 claiming sprint came up fairly competitive.  Street Vision just won a restricted (nw-3) race for this price with a good number from slightly off-the-pace; the son of Street Sense shortens up a half-furlong today and tackles open company so his task will be tougher.  If the Glatt-trained gelding has even a slight forward move in him, he can be dangerous right back.  Ketos drops drastically in class following a disappointing run in a first-level allowance sprint earlier this month.  He might be the quickest in the field and could be dangerous if he clears early without pressure.  Let’s use both in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring Street Vision on top.


​​​RACE 4: Post: 1:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use:  2-Free Rose; 5-Kenjisstorm; 8-Isotherm

Forecast: Isotherm exits a series of tough graded stakes races and today shows up in a conditioned allowance event.  He’s most effective when held up early and allowed to run late and if gets that type of ride from Van Dyke the D’Amato-trained horse could produce the last run.  The “other” D’Amato, Kenjisstsorm, makes his first start since last July and could be dangerous if he can secure his coveted front-running trip.  He’s reunited with Prat, who has won on him in the past, and the son of Stormy Atlantic has been first or second in five of 10 career starts over the Santa Anita turf course.  Free Rose is winless in five starts over this course and hasn’t visited the winner’s circle since September of 2016 but the Baltas-trained gelding exits a Grade-1 race and is another who certainly should appreciate this softer task.


​​RACE 5: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Dad’s a Gambler; 7-Moonlight Blue

Forecast:  Moonlight Blue missed by a head in a similar restricted (nw-2) $12,500 claimer and if he can turn in two alike the Gio Ponti gelding can win.  However, he’s 1-for-13 lifetime and may not be totally trustworthy.  Dad’s a Gambler is intriguing; the Awesome Gambler gelding has hit the board in nine of 10 career starts and will be trying two-turns for the first time in his career.  On pedigree, she should handle the trip.  Let’s try to get by using just these two in our rolling exotics.


​​​​RACE 6: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 1-Longden; 3-Negro Lucero; 4-Route Six Six

Forecast:  Longden is a solid fit in the speed figure department and should be a strong pace factor throughout from the rail.  Though he was beaten as the favorite vs. similar in his last outing, the son of Bernardini should have every chance to make amends.  Route Six Six has rising speed figures and a good stalking style.  The son of Quality Road looks like the one to fear most.  Negro Lucero has plenty of room to improve and offers the best price value at 12-1 on the morning.  He’s a bit one-paced but if he can get decent fractions to run at son of Blame could be dangerous in the final furlong.  We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics while preferring the best price chance, Negro Lucero, on top.


​​​RACE 7: Post 3:00 PT.  Grade: B+

Single: 6-Best of Me

Forecast: Best of Me crushed a decent maiden field in her debut last month, and based strictly on speed figures she should be capable of handling this tougher task.  Drawn comfortably outside, the Miller-trained daughter of Super Saver can pop and go or stalk and pounce.  At 2-1 on the morning line she’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.


​​​​​RACE 8: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 2-Defiantly; 4-Incensed; 8-A Red Tie Day

Forecast: Defiantly, a $40,000 Baltas claim (barn super with this angle), is likely to improve a bunch for his new stable and has several back figures that put him in the hunt.  With a decent pace to chase, he could wear down the leaders late.  A Red Tie Day moves up two levels in class following a Jacobson claim and this veteran gelding seems capable of handling this tougher assignment based on his present form.  A winner of six starts in 12 career outings over the Santa Anita turf course, the son of Indygo Shiner should draft into a comfortable second flight, pace-stalking position.  Incensed has the pedigree to stretch out successfully and in his first try around two turns the son of Pollard’s Vision could be the controlling speed.



Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Thursday, March 29, 2018

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