Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategy For Thursday, Feb. 15, 2018

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Thursday, February 15, 2018

​RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 3-For Him; 4-Jimmythisnjimthat; 5-Joeray

Forecast: The Thursday opener is a starter’s allowance downhill turf sprint for 3-year-olds that appears fairly wide open.  We’ll go three deep and hope to get by.  Joeray, making his first start since being haltered by Jacobson, won an off-the-turf maiden claiming miler with a good number in just his second career start and today is being protected by his new connections.  He’s a progressive son of Midnight Lute that should have no issue with this turn back in trip.  Jimmythisnjimthat won at first asking in decent fashion and was claimed by Hollendorfer.  Like Joeray, this sophomore gelding doesn’t return for a tag, indicating he’s well-liked by his new trainer and certainly is eligible to produce a significant forward move.  For Him ran well to be third when facing infinitely tougher foes in his only prior try on grass last fall. The son of Violence has plenty of zip and might be dangerous if he can shake loose early without pressure.

 

​​RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: C

Use: 3-Del Mar Diva; 4-So Euro; 5-Knowitallhousewife

Forecast: Knowitallhousewife, in the money in all three of her starts since joining the Kitchinghman stable, makes her first start since last fall and tuned up for this maiden claiming abbreviated sprint for folder fillies and mares with a bullet gate drill at Del Mar last week.  On pure numbers, she’s the one to beat.  Del Mar Diva adds blinkers, shows a bullet gate drill since raced and may improve enough to graduate from a modest group.  So Euro is a first-timer with an okay work tab for a barn that is quite capable of winning with a debut runner.  In an open fray, we’ll toss her in as well.

 

​RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Gentrified; 3-Eagle Screams

Forecast:  Gentrified crushed a restricted $16,000 field with a career top speed figure over this track and distance in his last outing and seems quite capable of repeating on the raise from his good inside post with Roman staying aboard.  Eagle Screams, first off the claim for Jacobson, moves up a notch after a solid runner-up effort on turf last month.  He’s won 12 races in his career but none on dirt and has been primarily and turf/synthetic specialist throughout most of his career.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics with preference on top to Gentrified.

 

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: B+

Single:  6-Tough It Out

Forecast:  Past-classer Tough It Out showed signs of life when finishing third in a state-bred $16,000 extended sprint in his last race and today shows up for $32,000 in a restricted (nw-3) one mile turf affair.  The son of Grazen is stakes-placed over the local lawn, likes this distance, and looks ready to produce another forward move.  At 6-1 on the morning line he’s a gambling number so let’s make him a straight play and rolling exotic single.

 

​​RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Tiger Mom; 7-Chiefs Lil Pearl

Forecast: Chiefs Lil Pearl has been claimed in each of her last three outings and today makes her first start for the Hollendorfer barn.  The Bay Area invader earned by far her best speed figure ever when winning for $12,500 up north last month and despite this three-level class hike looks capable of winning right back in a below-par race for fillies and mares.  Tiger Mom, freshened since mid-December and second in her last two outings for $32,000, gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Roman and should be on or near the lead throughout.  Both should be included in rolling exotic play.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Hot Sean; 4-Cat Burglar

Forecast: Baffert holds the aces in this third-level allowance middle distance main track event.  Hot Sean is an improving son of Flatter with steadily rising speed figures and should be tough once again after a game win over this track and distance last month.  From the rail, he could find himself on the lead, though Infobedad, drawn just to his outside, has enough early speed if utilized to keep him company.  Cat Burglar, away since last July, is a true horse-for-course, having won six of 10 over the Santa Anita main track.  Prat jumps aboard for the first time and will have this veteran son of Unbridled’s Song within striking range throughout.  We’ll give him a very slight edge on top.

 

​​​RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 4-Ronald R; 5-Tribal Fighter

Forecast: This grass grab bag offers at least a couple of strong possibilities, so let’s go with our best price chance on top.  Ronald R was given a run down the hill in his local debut and was never a factor, but he should be much more competitive today with that effort behind him combined with the stretch out to a mile.  The Irish-bred gelding had useful form overseas last year and off his best effort can act with these.  Tribal Fighter may be most comfortable  sprinting down the hill but this two-turn trip is within his range, and the Baltas-trained gelding could be extra dangerous if allowed the front end without undue pressure.

​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: Lord Rayleigh; 5-Fly First Class; 9-Famous Rock Star

Forecast:  Famous Rock Star is bred to be very quick and this son of Rocky Bar has shown plenty of zip in a.m. drills for Mullins.  Assuming he breaks well, the Arizona-bred sophomore will likely be on or near the lead from the get-go.  Fly First Class, a strong third in his debut, seems like the best of the known element and is strictly the one to beat.  Lord Rayleigh closed with interest in a promising debut at Golden Gate Fields and today gets an extra half furlong to work with.  The Smith-Hollendorfer team always is formidable.  In what appears to be a better than par race for the level, we’ll give Famous Rock Star the edge on top but include all three in our rolling exotics.

 

 

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategy For Thursday, Feb. 15, 2018

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