Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B+
Single: 7-Liar Liar
Forecast: Liar Liar encountered costly trouble when a closing third in his recent comeback and by all rights should have finished in the picture. In addition to making a major jockey switch to F. Prat, the R. Baltas-trained Irish-bred returns at the same level, is comfortably drawn outside, and seems likely to drop into favorable spot and then have every chance with clear sailing to produce a winning late kick. His morning line of 8/5 seems about right, so at anywhere near that price he’s win play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 2: Post: 1:35 PT Grade: X
Use: 3-Bandeena; 5-Our Bonnie Las
Forecast: Bandeena and Our Bonnie Lass, a close second and third respectively in a similar maiden $20,000 main track miler for fillies and mares, meet again and we’ll be surprised if the winner isn’t one or the other. ‘Lass has the always-popular blinkers off angle and perhaps a tad more tactical speed, so well give her a very slight edge on top, though Bandeena is improving with racing and with another forward move, even a slight one, should be in the thick of it again. Both should be included in the various rolling exotics in a race that we really have no plans to play.
RACE 3: Post: 2:10 PT Grade: X
Single: 3-Big Clare
Forecast: Big Clare has the powerful two-sprints-and-a-stretch out pattern and is bred to improve as the distances increase. The daughter of Mr. Big finished willingly in both of her sprints to indicate the longer the better and the P. D’Amato/F. Prat combo, at 28%, is hard to buck under any circumstance. She’s 6/5 on the morning line and seems certain to go lower, so let’s make her a short-priced rolling exotic single but otherwise sit the race out.
RACE 4: Post: 2:44 PT Grade: X
Use: 1-Miss Bigly; 4-Paige Runner
Forecast: This starter’s allowance main track miler for $32,000 level fillies and mares attracted just five entrants, two of which appear capable of winning. Miss Bigly lands the good rail, is assured of a ground-saving, pace pressing trip, and has recent speed figures that make her the one to beat. The P. D’Amato-trained mare exits a pair of much tougher local races after arriving from the Midwest, and with the switch to J. J. Hernandez the daughter of Gemologist looks tough to beat as the 6/5 morning line second choice. Paige Runner, a three-time winner over the Santa Anita main track, just crushed a state-bred optional claiming field by more than 13 lengths, a performance that earns her the role as the even money morning line favorite. Truthfully, these two are hard to separate, with neither having a significant speed figure edge over the other. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with perhaps a very slight edge on top going to Miss Bigley.
RACE 5: Post: 3:20 PT Grade: X
Use: 3-Lady Macarena; 4-Equilove
Forecast: Equilove shows a series of sharp drills leading up to her U.S. debut and looks fit and ready for a major effort in this maiden special weight grass sprint for 3-year-old fillies. Her form last year in Ireland was just okay but she get Lasix and F. Prat for the high-percentage P. D’Amato barn and may go lower than even her morning line of 6/5. Lady Macarena is worth including somewhere on your ticket as well. The daughter of Uncle Mo finished a willing runner-up in her debut over this turf courses in early February and has trained steadily since for a stable that has superior stats with the second-time starter angle. If for whatever reason Equilove doesn’t run to her works, the M. McCarthy-trained filly will be hard to deny.
RACE 6: Post: 3:54 PT Grade: C+
Use: 1-Info’s Treasure; 3-Gotta Be Lucky; 6-Secret Square
Forecast: We’ll spread three-deep in this six-runner restricted (nw-2) $16,000 middle distance claimer for sophomore fillies while giving a slight edge on top to Secret Square. Back on the main track and dropping to a realistic level, the A. Kitchingman-trained filly has run well over this particular surface in the past and in fact may be more comfortable on dirt than turf. She lacks tactical speed, but from her outside draw the daughter of Square Eddie can settle in the second flight and enjoy the type of trip that will allow her to move when she wants to. Gotta Be Lucky and Info’s Treasure, two-three finishers in a similar two-turn affair last month, aren’t ones to trust but in a weak field they are contenders by default. The former finally broke her maiden in career start number 20 two races back and projects to enjoy a good stalking trip, while the latter has hit the board in four of eight starts at Santa Anita and should at least get a piece of it again today.
RACE 7: Post: 4:26 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Desmond Doss; 3-Jetovator
Forecast: Let’s try to get by using just two in this competitive edition of the Sensational Star Stakes for turf sprinting state-bred older horses. Desmond Doss has rising speed figures and is a two-time winner over the Santa Anita turf course while returning to a sprint, and the evidence suggests he’s most effective around one turn. The S. Miyadi-trained son of Grazen projects to settle into a comfortable second flight, stalking trip, and then have dead aim from the quarter pole home. Jetovator loves this turf course (three wins) and earned a career top speed figure in easily handling a first-level allowance field last month. The veteran gelding has really gotten good of late for P. Eurton and based strictly on numbers is a major player right back.
RACE 8: Post: 4:56 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Betito; 7-El Centenario
Forecast: Bay Area shipper El Centenario looks as good as any in this bottom-rung maiden claiming sprint, especially after attracting red hot F. Prat. The J. Wong-trained gelding was overmatched in straight maiden company at Golden Gate Fields last time out but his sharp runner-up effort in a maiden $25,000 affair two runs back charts very nicely against this bunch. Betito, in the frame in his last pair, has numbers that are gradually rising, and with another forward move today should give our top pick some competition. These are the two that we’ll include in our rolling exotics with El Centenario strictly the one to beat at 2-1 on the morning line.
RACE 9: Post: 5:26 PT Grade: B-
Use: 3-Boru; 6-Seeking Revenge; 8-Honos Man
Forecast: Honos Man has a prior win over the local lawn and should appreciate the stretch out from a flat mile to this nine-furlong distance. A willing fourth (beaten less than two lengths) in a similar restricted (nw-3) $35,000 affair here last month, the son of Afleet Alex will be along in time with anything close to his best effort. Seeking Revenge, a first-off-the-claim play for V. Cerin (a strong 21% with this angle), has always preferred to run second or third rather than win but has run reasonably well over this turf course without winning (in the money in four of seven starts). The fact that a former trainer (Cerin) went back in for him must be considered a positive. Cerin’s other entrant, Boru, won his recent comeback vs. a lesser bunch here in game style with a competitive figure last month and could produce enough of a forward move to be dangerous right back. At 4-1 on the morning line he’s certainly usable.