Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Friday, May 7, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence;
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass;
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: X
Forecast: Goodtingscominpink is listed as the 4/5 morning line favorite in this five-runner starter optional claimer and that’s a difficult price to accept on a mare that has only one win from 16 career starts to go along with12 seconds/thirds. However, other than her apparent lack of a winning spirit, the daughter of Clubhouse Ride looks very much like a logical winner at an unplayable price in a race that is far below par for the level. You can use her as a no-value rolling exotic single or simply pass the race.
RACE 2: Post: 1:34 PT Grade: X
Single: 5-At the Spa
Forecast: At the Spa debuts in what appears to be a modest field of juvenile fillies and based on what she has shown in the morning she seems very likely to outrun her competition. A sharp half mile gate work (47 2/5 seconds, second fastest of 42) a couple of weeks ago points her out and though the barn hasn’t won a race this year we’re expecting the daughter of Outwork to gain control early and keep on going. Listed at 2-1 on the morning line but likely to go lower on the tote, she’s a logical short-priced rolling exotic single.
RACE 3: Post: 2:06 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Sugary; 4-Zubava
Forecast: Sugary looks pretty solid in this $25,000 claiming turf mile for fillies and mares. A three-time winner over the local lawn, she is drawn nicely inside, switches to J. J. Hernandez, and can really turn it on late when she’s on her game. A repeat of her race before last buries this group. For protection, you may want to include Zubava on a ticket or two as a back-up. The Fair Grounds invader attracts top rider F. Prat and has seven wins on her resume, though on pure speed figures she’s not up to Sugary’s level.
RACE 4: Post: 2:37 PT Grade: X
Use: 2-Phantom Dance; 3-Club Cal; 4-Onenightstandards
Forecast: This starter optional claimer drew just five entrants, three of which we could legitimately see winning, so we will pass the race and go three-deep in our rolling exotics. Phantom Dance crushed a maiden optional claiming field over this track and distance last month after strolling on the front end through easy splits in a performance that produced a career top speed figure. He catches a field without speed right back, so we are expecting similar strategy to be employed, though today he may have to go a bit quicker in the early stages. Onenightstandards, a $20,000 claim at Keeneland last month, lands F. Prat for his local debut and likely has a forward move or two in him for a clever outfit. He projects to draft into a pace pressing position and then have every chance from there. Club Cal is lightly-raced and improving and should be doing his best work from the second flight.
RACE 5: Post: 3:08 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Ultimate Hy; 2-Harper’s Gallop
Forecast: Ultimate Hy finished a good second in her debut earlier this meeting and then stepped forward nicely to graduate nicely over this course and distance in her next outing last month. There is no reason her improving pattern can’t continue today from an ideal inside draw and with U. Rispoli staying aboard. She packs a good late kick in a race that is likely to set up nicely up front for her. Harper’s Gallop, away since September and now in the L. Powell barn, has a prior win over the local lawn and has finished first or second in seven of 12 career outings. The work tab should have her fit enough off the bench and if she can shake loose early and become the controlling speed, the daughter of Suances may get very brave. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Ultimate Hay.
RACE 6: Post: 3:40 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Starship Sky; 7-Rowangoeshollywood
Forecast: Rowangoeshollywood had a decent tune-up when a willing third in a similar low-level maiden claimer sprint in her comeback and today stretches out as the projected controlling speed in a modest main track miler that will more than likely be slowly run early. She is good enough on pure numbers to beat this field, so we’ll put the daughter of Bayern on top. Starship Sky is a 14-race maiden and certainly not one to count on, but she has hit the board in two of her last three outings and probably will be in the fray once again. Failing at 6/5 last time out vs. similar hardly inspires confidence but a little will go a long way in this weak affair.
RACE 7: Post: 4:12 PT Grade: X
Single: 3-Brickyard Ride
Forecast: Brickyard Ride went way too fast for his own good in the Kona Gold S.-G3 as the 3/5 favorite and paid the price when fading to finish a distant and weary runner-up to Cezanne last time out. This is a much easier assignment – and at a shorter, more favorable trip – so we are expecting the C. Lewis-trained colt to make amends, though probably at an unplayable price. We can use him as a rolling exotic single or better yet simply pass the race.
RACE 8: Post: 4:44 PT Grade: B-
Use: 4-Bad Beat; 6-Bedrock; 8-Castle
Forecast: Bedrock was a clever winner at this distance over this turf course two runs back but was in too tough when a non-threatening fifth in his most recent outing. Back at his proper level today, the P. Miller-trained gelding switches to F. Prat, and with good racing luck and a little help up front projects to be a long in time. Castle, second as the favorite behind Bedrock in that common race in late February, is a two-time winner over the local lawn and could easily turn the tables on his main rival today. The son of Slew’s Tiznow should be prominent throughout. Bad Beat has plenty of speed – he may be the quickest in the field – and gets a significant break in the weights with the switch to good bug girl J. Pyfer. The son of Danza has a prior win over the course, so he is worth including on your ticket, at least as a saver.