Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
Single: 6-Big Passion
Forecast: The Sunday opener is a low-level maiden claiming main track miler for older fillies and mares. In a borderline inscrutable affair that we’re not planning on getting too involved in, let’s zero in on the sprinter-stretching-out Big Passion. If she’s ever going to handle two-turns, it will be in her first try, so if the daughter of Mr. Big can get loose on the lead under bug girl E. Ellingwood she may get brave and roll all the way to the wire. If it’s not her, it could be anybody.
RACE 2: Post: 1:40 PT Grade: C+
Use: 2-Kenzou’s Rhythm; 3-Justin’s Quest
Forecast: Justin’s Quest has never been one to trust, and after being claimed for $35,000 two runs back the son of Justin Phillip shows up today in a bottom-rung $10,000 affair. F. Prat stays aboard – good sign – so against this bunch the T. Yakteen-trained gelding may have found his friends, though at 6/5 on the morning line he’ll offer very little value. Kenzou’s Rhythm returns to his proper level and rates a look off his good runner-up try two runs back. The veteran gelding always has liked this main track – he’s been first or second in seven of 12 career starts – so we’ll consider him the one to fear most.
RACE 3: Post: 2:13 PT Grade: X
Forecast: Here’s another short price favorite that seems logical but won’t be offering any real wagering value. Barraza has displayed improvement in the morning and shows up in an expensive maiden claimer that should be well within his capabilities. Second to his highly-regarded stable mate Triple Tap while well clear of the rest last time out, the son of Into Mischief is realistically spotted, has little to beat, and should take full advantage of the opportunity to earn his diploma.
RACE 4: Post: 2:45 PT Grade: X
Use: 5-Flat Out Joy; 7-Bristol Bayou
<b>Forecast: First off the claim for S. Miyadi, Bristol Bayou lands the cozy outside post, picks up F. Prat, and will be a short price to duplicate her easy maiden $20,000 score less than two weeks ago while being wheeled back on short rest while seeking an immediate return on investment. This seven furlong trip seems made to order for her stalking/prompting style, but she’s 4/5 on the morning line so there’s not much we can do with her. Flat Out Joy finished in the frame in all six of her starts over the Santa Anita main track and should produce her usual honest effort again. The R. Ellis-trained mare has trained well since raced and projects to be close up throughout in what likely will be a soft early pace. You can use her as a back-up or a saver in rolling exotic play while reserving the main punch to Bristol Bayou.
RACE 5: Post: 3:17 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Shanghai Sunrise; 3-Dancing Dana; 4-Warren’s Memorable
Forecast: There are three main players in this starter’s optional claiming sprint for 3-year-old fillies, with slight preference on top going to Shanghai Sunrise. The M. Puype-trained daughter of Shanghai Bobby has improving speed figures and a pair of sharp recent workouts that indicate she’s ready for a significant forward move. Dancing Dana is genuine, consistent, and solid on speed figures. She’ll have every chance from a good pace-stalking position. Warren’s Memorable is back sprinting where she belongs and with some help up front could be quite dangerous from off the pace. These are the three we’ll be using in our rolling exotics with preference on top to Shanghai Sunrise.
RACE 6: Post: 3:49 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Invictatatus; 5-Go Daddy Go
Forecast: Go Daddy Go shows up in a soft restricted (nw-2) $32,000 for the first time and should be able to take full advantage of the opportunity. He’s plenty fast enough on speed figures to beat this field; however, his career record of one-for-15 makes him somewhat unreliable and at 8/5 on the morning line he’ll offer little in the way of wagering value. Therefore, for protection, we’ll also include in our rolling exotics Invictatatus, who’ll very likely attempt gate-to-wire tactics from his rail draw. The Strong Mandate has run reasonably well on dirt in the past and may enjoy this return to the main track.
RACE 7: Post: 4:21 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Ginja; 4-Stressed; 6-Caparegime
Forecast: Ginja and Stressed both have credentials to win this maiden $100,000 claiming sprint for sophomore fillies but so does Caparegime and she’ll be the best price of the three, so we’ll put her on too while including all three in our rolling exotics. The V. Cerin-trained daughter of Street Boss appeared in dire need of the outing when flashing speed before fading in her debut and we’re expecting a much better performance today with that tightener behind her. J. J. Hernandez, the barn’s “go-to” rider, stays aboard and should have her in an ideal stalking position outside the other two committed speed types. Stressed is listed at 6/5 on the morning line while exiting the same races as Caparegime and clearly is the one to fear most. She makes a major jockey switch to F. Prat and could very well be the quickest of the quick. Gina was beaten by subsequent stakes winner Soothsay in her debut after flashing speed and then weakening in the final furlong to wind up a respectable fourth. The daughter of Quality Road certainly has a right to move forward off that effort for a barn that always has good stats with the second-time starter angle.
RACE 8: Post: 4:53 PT Grade: B-
Use: 5-Trina; 7-Time for Ebby; 8-Li’l Grazen
Forecast: Here’s another spread race, this one for first-level allowance state-bred fillies and mares. Time for Ebby makes her 61st career start and is back at her winning level after being pitched too high in open company last time out. She continues to train eagerly and is reunited with “win rider” T. Baze, so we’re expecting to see her best stuff. Li’l Grazen is a first-off-the-claim play for P. Miller (27% with massive ROI) and therefore is an automatic “must use.” She’s back with F. Prat, who’s always gotten the most run out of her. Trina is a sharp Bay Area invader with speed figure that fit on this circuit. If she can duplicate her synthetic track form on this dirt surface she’ll be a threat.
RACE 9: Post: 5:25 PT Grade: -B-
Use: 2-My Tigress; 6-Uncaged Kitty
Forecast: My Tigress missed at even money when a disappointing third vs. similar maiden $50,000 foes last month but has worked quite well since, so we’ll give the R. Baltas-trained filly another chance with F. Prat staying aboard. She had a legitimate excuse in that race – she had a bad stumble at the start – but with a clean journey today she should be able to handle this soft task. Uncaged Kitty represents stranger danger from San Luis Rey Downs and is bred to win early (Smiling Tiger) for the clever P. Miller outfit. She shows a couple of recent gate drills that catch the eye, so we’ll toss her in for protection but use My Tigress as the main punch.