Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
*
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
Click Here to view Today’s Santa Anita Workout Report
RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-One Flew South; 2-Evening Sun; 3-I Will Not
Forecast: The main contention is drawn inside in the Sunday opener, a first-level allowance turf sprint for older horses. One Flew South crushed a starter’s allowance field over the local lawn last month with a career-equaling speed figure and with a similar effort today he’ll be hard to beat right back. The son of Giant’s Causeway projects to settle into a good ground-saving, stalking position and the kick home when called upon. I Will Not exits a fast dirt sprint and will appreciate this return to turf. Highly-competitive on pure numbers and with a good stalking style, the D. O’Neill-trained son of Square Eddie is a major player at 9/2 on the morning line. European shipper Evening Sun has Timeform ratings that make him a fit at this level and a work tab that should have him fit and ready for a big effort in his U.S. debut. He’s a first-time Lasix, first-time gelding for J. Mullins and lands top grass rider U. Rispoli, so at 4-1 on the morning line he’s a “must use” in rolling exotic play.
*
*
RACE 2: Post: 1:35 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Gotta Be Lucky; 3-You Wanna Ear Rip
Forecast: You Wanna Ear Rip stretches out again and a repeat of her good runner-up effort over this track and distance two runs back should be good enough to handle this modest $10,000 claiming group of older fillies and mares. Gotta Be Lucky adds blinkers and seems certain to employ gate-to-wire tactics from the rail. Fourth in the same race our top pick exits, the daughter of Lucky Pulpit has finished first or second in six of 12 starts over the Santa Anita main track and should produce her usual honest effort again.
*
*
RACE 3: Post: 2:07 PT Grade: B+
Single: 3-Frazzled
Forecast: Each of the five entrants has credentials to win this starter optional claiming turf event for sophomore fillies but rather than “buy” the race we’ll take a stand and single Frazzled. First off the claim for R. Baltas, the daughter of Outwork can be expected to produce a significant forward move for her new connections in a race that will be slowly run early and may allow her to inherit the role as the controlling speed. A sharp recent training track workout for her new connections catches the eye, so at 2-1 on the morning line we’ll make her a win play and rolling exotic single.
*
*
RACE 4: Post: 2:41 PT Grade: X
Single: 5-Supersonic Flyer
Forecast: Supersonic Flyer is listed as the 2/5 morning line favorite in this six-runner maiden claiming sprint for state-bred fillies and mares. She projects to enjoy the easiest of front-running trips and though she was worn down late in a similar spot last month she has a sixteenth of a mile less to worry about and speed figures that tower over the field. In an unplayable race, she’s a no value rolling exotic single.
*
*
RACE 5: Post: 3:15 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Cinnte Winte; 3-Bellize; 4-Mongolian Mission
Forecast: Cinnte Winte makes the all-important class drop from straight maiden to maiden claiming, lands the good rail, switches to U. Rispoli and is a solid fit on speed figures. She’s a legitimate 9/5 morning line favorite in this one mile turf affair for fillies and mares. Bellize, a willing fourth vs. similar last time out with a career top speed figure, should be closer to the pace today and have every chance from the quarter pole home. Mongolian Mission returns to her proper level and ran well over this course and distance when beaten a neck in her debut earlier this year. A repeat of that race today puts her in the fray at 5-1 on the morning line.
*
*
RACE 6: Post: 3:48 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Smoothlikebuttah; 4-Ultimate Hy
Forecast: Smoothlikebuttah switches to F. Prat, is guaranteed a ground-saving trip from the rail, has worked quite well since raced and shows a prior win over this track and distance. Second at 6/5 in a similar affair in late April, she gets an ideal spot to make amends and offers value at or near her morning line of 4-1. Ultimate Hy is the likely choice and one to beat based on her grass form, but this will be her first career start on dirt. Based strictly on pedigree she shouldn’t have any issues with the main track, but we’ll just have to see. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Smoothlikebuttah due to price considerations.
*
*
RACE 7: Post: 4:21 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Whatmakessammyrun; 3-Missy P.
Forecast: Missy P. was disappointing when having to settle for second at odds of 30 cents on the dollar behind stable mate Astute in the Angel’s Flight S. last month, but she’s trained very well since and switches to grass while taking on the boys in this year’s renewal of the Desert Code S. If she can transfer her dirt form to turf, she’s fast enough to win based purely on speed figures so we’ll give her the slight edge on top over Whatmakessammyrun, was a convincing winner over this course and distance in his West Coast debut in early May in a race that charts very well here despite the class hike. The M. Glatt-trained colt should settle in the second flight and then have dead aim from the top of the lane to the wire. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.
*
*
RACE 8: Post: 4:52 PT Grade: B+
Single: 6-Rayray
Forecast: Rayray exits a series of much stronger allowance races and should find this starter optional claiming field well within his capabilities. The City Zip gelding has several speed figures on his resume that are more than good enough win, and in a field lacking in early speed the M. Glatt-trained 5-year-old should find himself in a good stalking position without having to be used much to get there. He also benefits from a break in the weights with the switch to J. Pyfer so at 5/2 on the morning line he’s a win play and rolling exotic single.
*
*
RACE 9: Post: 5:26 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Fantail; 4-Ivy League; 5-Jazzique
Forecast: The finale is a competitive affair for entry-level allowance fillies and mares that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Ivy League is steadily improving for R. Mandella, having earned a career top speed figure when a respectable fourth in the Providencia S.-G3 in early April. Freshened, working well, dropping in class and shortening to a mile, the daughter of Medaglia d’Oro has plenty of upside and should be capable of producing a winning late kick. Fantail failed to run to her backing when a troubled sixth in her U.S. debut last month as the favorite, but we expect the R. Baltas-trained filly to leave that form behind today while stretching out to a much more suitable trip. She continues to work impressively, retains F. Prat, and figures to be prominent throughout. Jazzique was a bit rusty in her local bow in her first outing since last July when a non-threatening sixth in a recent grass sprint but seems certain to improve today in her second start off a layoff while stretching out to a more favorable distance. All three should be used in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Ivy League.
*
