Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Sunday, March 7, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 5-Cover Version; 6-Gallovie; 7-Lavender
Forecast: The Sunday opener is a challenging starter optional claiming turf dash for fillies and mares that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Lavender, featured in a Black Book segment a couple of weeks ago, makes her first start off a J. Sadler claim while turning back to an extended sprint, and with some help up front the veteran mare should be capable of producing a winning late kick. Both of her career victories were accomplished over the local lawn, and with the switch to the barn’s “go to” rider U. Rispoli and a projected pace flow that appears favorable to her style, the Irish-bred mare looks extremely live at 7/2 on the morning line. Gallovie, freshened for two months and training well in the interim for R. Baltas, picks up F. Prat and seems likely to be part of the pace throughout. This will be her first start a tag, so the class drop helps, but the concern is the presence of other speed – specifically Capital Heat on the rail – that may prevent the English-bred mare from securing the front running trip that she seems to require to be successful. Cover Version was a visually pleasing winner of a $32,000 claiming grass miler here two weeks ago and if the short rest doesn’t impact her performance today the R. Saldana-trained daughter of Medaglia d’Oro will be a threat right back. These are the three we’ll be using in our rolling exotics with Lavender the preferred top pick.
RACE 2: Post: 1:04 PT Grade: C+
Use: 2-Pawnee; 3-Warren’s Memorable; 6-Mama Superior
Forecast: Here’s another open affair, a starter optional claimer for fillies and mares at a mile on the main track. Pawnee is progressing with experience, and while she’ll need to step forward again following a recent maiden claiming score against this tougher group the daughter of Mr. Big could easily have it in her. Her pedigree suggests she’ll be just as effective at this longer trip and U. Rispoli got to know her last time and stays aboard. Mama Superior seeks her third straight win, most recently with a career top figure over this track and distance, and shows a healthy work pattern since, while the filly that she defeated, Warren’s Memorable, has a reasonable look as well with the switch to F. Prat, though as a tradeoff she’ll be picking up 8 lbs. today. We’ll use all three in rolling exotic play and then have a few extra tickets keying Pawnee on top.
RACE 3: Post: 1:36 PT Grade: B+
Forecast: Rakassah makes her first start since August and has trained like she’s fit and ready in this extended grass sprint for first-level allowance fillies and mares. The Irish-bred four-year-old has never been worse than second in five starts since being imported from England, and with a win over the local lawn, speed figures that fit, and from a barn that has outstanding stats with come-backers she appears the solid pick at 5/2 on morning line. It all adds up to a win play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 4: Post: 2:08 PT Grade: B+
Use: 4-Kalypso; 5-Moraz
Forecast: Moraz continues to impress in the a.m. and seems ready to break through with a significant forward move in this year’s edition of the Santa Ysabel S.-G3 for sophomore fillies. A respectable third in the Las Virgenes S.-G3 last month, the daughter of Empire Maker will appreciate today’s extra distance in a race that projects to produce a respectable early pace that will compliment her closing style. Kalypso, a good second in the La Virgenes, may be a tad more effective sprinting and today may have deal with the sprinter-stretching-out Heels Up, though with both those fillies under his shedrow (along with a third filly in the field, Beautiful Gift), trainer B. Baffert can choreograph the pace flow if he so choses. We’ll stick with Moraz and Kalypso in rolling exotic play and then press in the win pool with Moraz on top.
RACE 5: Post: 2:42 PT Grade: B+
Use: 2-Carpe Fortuna; 3-Majestic Steps
Forecast: Majestic Steps has the two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern that usually leads to a major effort and the Irish-bred filly has the pedigree and running style to step forward considerably in this first-level allowance grass miler. The P. D’Amato-trained filly continuous to shine in the morning so we’re expecting the Irish-bred filly to justify her 8/5 morning line favoritism. Carpe Fortuna, scratched yesterday from the China Doll S. for this less ambitious event, is a first-time Lasix user and was most recently a strong third in the Blue Norther S. over this course and distance in late December. If not policed on the front end, the P. Eurton-trained filly could take control early and never look back. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Majestic Steps.
RACE 6: Post: 3:14 PT Grade: B+
Single: 4-Traffic Stopper
Forecast: Traffic Stopper launches a comeback in this modest bottom-rung maiden claiming sprint for older fillies and mares and her best effort from last year should be good enough to handle this modest task. Her recent workouts lead us to believe that she’s a better type this time around, and with F. Prat taking the call for new trainer M. Puype she’ll offer value at or near her morning line of 5/2. In a race which offers nothing else to trust, we’ll make her a win play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 7: Post: 3:46 PT Grade: B+
Single: 1-North County Guy
Forecast: North County Guy probably wants more than a mile but in his present form the Cal-bred gelding should be able to handle this three-other-than allowance event from a good rail draw that ensures a second-flight, ground-saving trip. The R. Baltas-trained gelding is fresh from a clever score in the nine furlong Cal Cup Turf Classic in mid-January that produced a career top speed figure, and his work tab at San Luis Rey Downs is healthy, consistent, and includes a bullet 58 4/5 five furlong clocking (fastest of 26) three weeks ago. He’s 3-1 on the morning line and seems worth every bit of that, so lets use him in the win pool and as a rolling exotic single.
RACE 8: Post: 4:20 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Miss Baylee; 5-Omg It’s Jessica
Forecast: Omg It’s Jessica flashed promise in her debut when missing by a head to the talented Becca Taylor at Los Alamitos in December but then failed to make any impression when always outrun in a state-bred grass sprint the following month. Back on the main track today, the daughter of Smiling Tiger certainly seems capable of bouncing back in what appears on paper to be a lackluster field, so with U. Rispoli jumping back aboard we’ll put the C. Dollase-trained filly on top. Miss Baylee finished a well-beaten fifth in that same race but she, too, should enjoy the return to dirt. The daughter of Dominus continues train like a fairly decent type for B.Koriner, finished second to subsequent stakes winner My Girl Red over this main track last summer in her debut, and picks up F. Prat. At 4-1 on the morning line, she’s a “must use” in rolling exotic play.
RACE 9: Post: 4:52 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Acai; 3-Ole Silver
Forecast: We’ll double the finale, an extended turf sprint for starter optional claiming fillies and mares. Ole Silver is lightly raced and improving, having just missed by a nose with a good late kick in a restricted $25,000 claiming turf sprint last time out. She’s been impressive in the a.m. since so we’re expecting another forward move from the daughter of Acclamation. There’s a good gamble available at her morning line of 4-1 if you can get it. Acai has numbers that fit but hasn’t won since May of 2019, and over a course that generally favors the stalkers/closers her pace pressing style may make her a bit vulnerable. However, loose-on-the-lead speed always is dangerous and if she can secure that type of trip the daughter of Square Eddie might get very brave.