Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Sunday, May 23, 2021
Click Here to View Today’s Santa Anita Workout Report
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
Click Here to View Today’s Santa Anita Workout Report
RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B+
Use: 1-Notre Dame; 2-Ian Glass
Forecast: Notre Dame looks like the controlling speed again and if he can duplicate his dirt form on grass he’ll probably win again. His one prior turf race was a disaster but he’s obviously a much better type since being gelded. Ian Glass is genuine, consistent, a two-time winner over the local lawn and quite popular at the claim box, most recently having been haltered by the Bay Area-based A. Mathis. He’s a fit on numbers and projects to draft in behind Notre Dame and then have dead aim and every chance from the top of the lane to the wire. We’ll prefer Notre Dame on top but include both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:35 PT Grade:
Use: 2-Ikigai; 5-Bet On Mookie
Forecast: Ikigai is a precocious son of Bayern and can score at first asking based on his brief but noteworthy work pattern. The S. Callaghan-trained colt flashed good speed in a recent gate drill that should have him fit and ready. Bet On Mookie breezed a quarter mile in a quick 21 2/5 seconds at the OBS March sale and then brought $125,000 through the ring, a nice price for a son of the Florida-based stallion Uncaptured. His work tab at San Luis Rey Downs for P. Miller (solid with first-timers) looks promising, so we’re expecting a good effort from him first time out. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Ikigai.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:09 PT Grade: X
Use: 3-Dancing Dana; 5-Agreetodisagree
Forecast: Agreetodisagree is a perfect one-for-one over the local turf course and just earned a career top speed figure when second while more than four lengths clear of the rest in a similar allowance sprint on dirt last month. She prefers to settle early and turn it on late and seems likely to produce the last run under F. Prat, who rides her back. Dancing Dana has the route-to-sprint angle that we like and should inherit a good stalking position and then have her chance to seal the deal. We’ll have tickets including both in our rolling exotics with preference on top to the logical favorite, Agreetodisagree.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:42 PT Grade: X
Single: 3-Chollima
Forecast: Chollima rates top billing by default in a race that appears to be on loan from Los Alamitos. First or second in five of eight starts with a prior win over the local main track, she’s a first-off-the-claim play for an outfit that has poor stats with this angle but if she fires her best shot she should win. We can use her as a rolling exotic single, buy the race, or better yet simply sit it out.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:18 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-Gregdar; 5-Rip City
Forecast: Gregdar finished second at this level last time out but may have found the 10-furlong trip slightly out of his reach. He shortens to as mile today and projects to enjoy an ideal pace-stalking trip in this five-runner affair that should be free of trouble. The P. D’Amato-trained colt also is reunited with “win” rider U. Rispoli and holds the edge in the speed figure department over main rival Rip City, a three-time winner over the Santa Anita turf course and listed as the 6/5 morning line favorite. The M. Puype-trained gelding is thoroughly genuine and consistent but is facing a tougher assignment today.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:50 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Next Revolt; 4-Leprino
Forecast: Next Revolt returns to his claim level and is reunited with “win rider” F. Prat, so there should be no excuses for the R. Hess, Jr.-trained gelding, who is exiting an infinitely tougher starter’s allowance sprint. In a shallow race for the level, the son of Revolutionary is listed as the 9/5 morning line favorite, but we suspect he’ll go lower. Leprino has won his last pair in good style but moves up another notch on the class ladder following a $12,500 claim by V. Brinkerhoff. A perfect two-for-two at this one mile trip, the lightly-raced former $750,000 yearling purchase should be on or near the lead throughout. Preference on top goes to Next Revolt but we’ll have tickets using both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:20 PT Grade: B
Use: 4-Hubris; 5-Hudson Ridge
Forecast: Hudson Ridge is a maiden but has improving speed figures, continues to train well, and should enjoy today’s nine furlong trip. The son of American Pharaoh lacks a true turn of foot but with an extra furlong to work with today we’re expecting the B. Baffert-trained colt to leave his previous form behind. Hubris couldn’t cope with subsequent stakes winner Du Jour when second in a hot allowance race in late March but he, too, should enjoy today’s mile and one-eighth journey while most likely stalking a modest early pace. He makes a major jockey switch to F. Prat and is rightly listed as the 9/5 morning line favorite. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Hudson Ridge.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:52 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Esagarare; 5-Reem
Forecast: Reem is the 8/5 favorite and based on pure form deserves to be, though she’s never been one to trust and has a history of waving the white flag under pressure from the furlong pole to the wire. Maybe today she’s finally found a field she can handle, but at 8/5 on the morning line there’s no real value to be found. A viable alternative – and one that should be included with Reem on your rolling exotic tickets – is Esagerare, a non-threatening fourth in a maiden claimer at Keeneland last fall in her only outing and making her California debut for a low profile but capable trainer. The daughter of Exaggerator has trained quite well since arriving in the West and could be a whole lot better than her debut indicates. At 12-1 on the morning line, she’s a “must use.”
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RACE 9: Post: 5:24 PT Grade: B+
Single: 1-In Vronsky Style
Forecast: This Cal-bred maiden turf sprint actually came up stronger than par with the first-timers Patriot Missile (a filly) and Really Big News both showing enough in the morning to be considered contenders. Additionally, Minister Shane just missed by a head in a similar turf sprint last month and has worked very well since. That said, the 8/5 morning line favorite In Vronsky Style will be difficult to beat. The P. D’Amato-trained gelding couldn’t quite see out the mile when worn down late to wind up third last time out but has looked especially sharp in the morning since and turns back to a sprint, his preferred trip. With a clean break from the rail, the lightly-raced sophomore seems likely to capitalize on his role as the controlling speed. You may find the need to use the other contenders somewhere on your ticket, but the main push should go to In Vronsky Style.
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