Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Santa Anita
Saturday, February 8, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Handicappers also are encouraged to access Jeff’s Daily Santa Anita Workout Analysis (see below), an exclusive report containing commentary, fractional times, grades, and a link to the video of the actual workout by each race’s key contenders.
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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Today’s Day Makers: View Video
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Today’s Workout Analysis: View Report (PDT)
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RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 6-Street Behavior; 7-Nonno’s Polaris
Forecast: Maiden claimers sprint six and one-half furlongs in the Saturday lid-lifter, a below par race for the level that we’ve got down to two main contenders. Nonno’s Polaris finished second in a pair of lesser maiden-claiming events last fall but has speed figures that fit nicely in this maiden $50,000 affair and probably won’t need to improve much at all to graduate. His late-running style suggests he’ll enjoy today’s extended sprint trip and with the barn’s go-to rider taking the call the S. Knapp-trained gelding seems capable of producing the last run. We’ll also include “stranger danger” Street Behavior in our rolling exotic play. The son of Street Sense has been working reasonably well according to the listed clockings and the P. Miller barn always is dangerous with these first-timers from the training center. R. Fuentes has been riding some live runners from the stable lately and this gelding could turn be of similar ilk.
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RACE 2: Post 12:58 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 4-Kustom for Karl
Forecast: Kustom for Karl ran better than the line will show when a close fourth in her debut over this course and distance last month and seems very likely to produce a significant forward move with that bit of experience behind her. The J. Mullins barn has excellent stats with second-time starters, and with better racing luck (and clear sailing) from the top of the stretch to the wire the daughter of Custom for Carlos should be able to produce a winning late kick under excellent turf rider U. Rispoli. At 3-1 on the morning line she’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 3: Post 1:28 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Edna; 3-Coalinga Hills
Forecast: Bottom-rung claiming fillies and mares meet over a six and one-half furlongs in the third race. There’s not much to work with, so we’ll use two in our rolling exotics but otherwise not get too involved. Edna drops drastically in class from $20,000 to $10,000 and has the kind of early speed that should allow for separation during the early stages. As the controlling speed, the S. Miyadi-trained filly could get very brave. Coalinga Hills has won two of her last three starts and is strictly the one to beat. She has a good stalking style that should produce a comfortable trip, and while she’s not particularly fast on speed figures she does know where the wire is.
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RACE 4: Post 1:58 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Tropical Terror; 3-Rocks and Salt; 6-George Herman Ruth;
Forecast: The fourth race is a maiden special weight grass miler for California-bred 3-year-olds that on paper looks fairly challenging. We’ll go three-deep and hope to survive and advance. Rocks and Salt is improving with racing, retains F. Prat, and may be capable of producing a winning late kick. The C. Gaines-trained gelding doesn’t have any tactical speed, but in a field with only seven runners he should be forwardly placed throughout. George Herman Ruth walked out of the gate in his debut sprinting on grass last month and lost all chance, but he continues to train like a colt with some ability and probably deserves another chance. He’s shown some speed in the morning, so if he leaves with his field the son of Grazen should be prominent throughout and have every chance. Tropical Terror, third in the same race Rocks and Salt just finished second in, gets the rail and adds blinkers, so there’s every reason to believe he can improve. Toss him in on a ticket or two.
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RACE 5: Post 2:28 PT. Grade: X
Single: 4-Venetian Harbor
Forecast: Venetian Harbor is the 2/5 morning line favorite in this year’s edition of Las Virgenes S.-G2. A maiden winner by nearly 11 lengths here in late December, the daughter of Munnings stretches out to a mile and moves way up in class, but this task should be well within her abilities based on the impression she left in that runaway score for the always-potent F. Prat/R. Baltas team. She’ll be too short to play, of course, but you can use her as a no-value rolling exotic single or simply pass the race.
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RACE 6: Post 2:58 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-French Rose; 6-Trouville
Forecast: We’ll double the sixth race, a starter optional claiming sprint over seven furlongs for 3-year-old fillies. Base strictly on speed figures Trouville is the best filly in the field, yet she’s still a maiden after three starts. In her last pair, the L. Powell-trained daughter of Will Take Charge finished second in highly-rated affairs, and with any kind of improvement today she should be able handle this task by utilizing her stalking style that is ideal for this seven furlong journey. There may some value here at 7/2 on the morning line if you can get it. French Rose, in the money in her last pair but beaten as the choice in a first-level allowance state-bred affair last time out, isn’t as fast on figures as Trouville but seems like a trier and is another with a good style for an extended sprint. Preference on top goes to Trouville but both should be used in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 7: Post 3:31 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 5-Mugaritz; 6-River Boyne; 7-Frontier Market
Forecast: The Grade 3 Thunder Road Stakes is a grass grab bag for older milers and has several possibilities. We’ll use three, but you should include as many as your budget allows. Frontier Market is an intriguing Eastern invader now in the J. Sadler barn and deserves a close look despite managing to finish only third when favored in his last appearance, the Artie Schiller Stakes at Aqueduct in early November. The veteran gelding, now 7-years-old but with only 12 career starts, has trained quite well for his California debut and picks up F. Prat. He’ll be running on strongly late and with good racing luck should make his presence felt in the final furlong. River Boyne was compromised by a poor outside post position when third in a listed stakes race at Turf Paradise last time out and returns to his favorite course and distance today while remaining long overdue for a win. The Irish-bred horse tries a rider switch to A. Cedillo, continues to look sharp and eager in the morning, and figures to have every chance from a mid-pack early position. Mugaritz had his six race winning streak snapped when unplaced in the San Antonio S.-G2 in late December but he’s a perfect two-for-two on grass and could easily snap back to top form against this softer group. The Dialed In gelding switches to M. Smith and may employ gate-to-wire tactics.
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RACE 8: Post 4:02 PT. Grade: B
Use: 3-Adens Dream; 5-Oliver
Forecast: Adens Dream was visually very impressive winning an overnight race at Los Alamitos last time out in mid-December, and while form at that track doesn’t always carry over to Santa Anita the J. Sadler-trained gelding has worked splendidly here in the interim and could easily win right back with a similar performance. A two-time winner over the local main track and with a bullet five furlong recent workout (:59 4/5, fastest of 26), the 7-year-old has never been sharper. Oliver should get a dream stalking trip outside and projects to have dead aim and every chance with this class drop to second-level allowance ranks. He’s never been terribly fond of the Santa Anita main track – his best work has been accomplished at Del Mar and Los Alamitos – but under these conditions he’s a major player. We’ll prefer Adens Dream on top but include both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 9: Post 4:30 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Fivestar Lynch; 4-Irish Spirit
Forecast: The nightcap is a high priced ($62,500) maiden claiming turf miler. Let’s go for a price. Irish Spirit launches a comeback – he’s been away since December of 2018 – and returns as a first-time gelding with a series of workouts that should have him fit and ready. Now 5-years-old but with only three prior starts, the son of Curlin still has plenty of room to improve, and with M. McCarthy’s go-to rider, G. Franco, taking the call, there’s enough evidence to suggest that he’s extremely live and well-meant. At 8-1 on the morning line, ‘Spirit certainly is worth using both in the win pool and in the vertical and horizonal exotic plays. Fivestar Lynch is the 9/5 morning line favorite and deservedly so after finishing second vs similar competition in his last two outings. The Irish-bred gelding lands the good rail, adds blinkers for the first time, and should be on or near the lead throughout. He’s a “must use” in rolling exotic play.
