Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Workout Report, Day Makers, and Wagering Strategies for Saturday, Jan. 11, 2020

Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies

Santa Anita

Saturday, January 11, 2020

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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

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​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

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Handicappers also are encouraged to access Jeff’s Daily Santa Anita Workout Analysis (see below), an exclusive report containing commentary, fractional times, grades, and a link to the video of the actual workout by each race’s key contenders.

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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.

Grade B=Solid Play.

Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.

Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

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​The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches.  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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Today’s Day Makers: View Video

Today’s Workout Analysis: View Report (PDF)

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RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 3-Vastly Deep; 5-You’reright Again

Forecast: Vastly Deep ran well when a close third in a tougher starter’s allowance sprint at Golden Gate Fields last time out while earning a career top speed figure.  This drop into the $25,000 league is a tad suspicious and may indicate he’s “for sale.”  At 8/5 on the morning line he won’t be offering much in the way of wagering value, anyway.  You’reright Again looked decent breaking his maiden for $32,000 at Del Mar in late November in what has proven to be a productive race, and from his outside draw the L. Wicker-trained gelding has the option to pop and go or stalk and pounce.  He’s not as fast as ‘Deep on pure numbers but with a series of good workouts at San Luis Rey Downs in recent weeks he appears to have a healthier pattern.  Both should be included in rolling exotic play.

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​​RACE 2: Post 1:01 PT. Grade: B

Use: 4-Mandy; 7-Win Often

Forecast: Win Often ran well in a similar spot in November at Del Mar when a sharp runner-up with an improved speed figure and remains protected in this starter optional claiming sprint over the track he broke his maiden in his debut during the fall season.  A steady if unspectacular work pattern has kept her on edge, so the daughter of Vronsky seems the solid choice for the low profile but high percentage D. Pederson barn.  Mandy drops into a claimer for the first time, switches to J. Rosario, and should have a strong pace presence throughout.  She’s not as fast on numbers as ‘Often but is worth including in rolling exotic play as a backup or a saver.

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​​RACE 3: Post 1:32 PT. Grade: X

Use: 1-Storm the Hill; 3-Jolie Olimpica

Forecast: The five-runner Las Cienegas S.-G3 should boil down to the two favorites.  Unbeaten Brazilian invader Jolie Olimpica makes her U.S. debut for the always-potent R. Mandella/M. Smith team and has trained well enough to be fit and ready in this abbreviated turf sprint.  It’s difficult to gauge her South American form but considering her U.S. connections she must be pretty good.  Storm the Hill has been off form of late but we’ve always considered her most effective as a late-running sprinter and this turn back in trip should bring out her best.  She switches to F. Prat, lands the rail, and in a small field should have her chance to produce a strong late kick from the quarter pole home.

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​​​RACE 4: Post 2:04 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Mahi Mahi; 3-Champagne On Ice; 7-Itsthattime

Forecast: Here’s a spread race, a maiden-claiming $30,000 main track miler for 3-year-olds.  Itsthattime  a closing second in a similar event at Del Mar in late November, won’t need to improve much at all to earn his diploma; the J. Bonde-trained gelding earned a career top figure in that race and appears to have the most effective closing kick in the field.  R. Bejarano, who has gotten off to a very slow start this meeting, stays aboard and knows him well.  Champagne On Ice, nosed out when even money in a maiden $20,000 affair at Golden Gate Fields last month, should be prominent throughout and have every chance.  He was a distant runner-up in his only prior outing on dirt at Santa Anita in a sprint during the fall meeting, so the surface switch shouldn’t be an issue.  His J. Wong-trained stablemate, first-time gelding Mahi Mahi, lands the rail and could try gate-to-wire tactics, though there may be other speed in the field.  The son of Ministers Wild Cat is competitive on raw numbers and should at least get a piece of it.

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​​RACE 5: Post 2:36 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Mosienko; 2-Secret Square; 7-Destiny’s Journey

Forecast: Mosienko rates top billing in this starter optional claiming turf miler for 3-year-old fillies after finishing a good fourth in a similar affair at Del Mar in mid-November.  She has rising speed figures with each start and from the rail the daughter of Hat Trick is assured a ground-saving, pace-pressing trip.  Secret Square broke her maiden sprinting on the main track at Del Mar while earning a pretty solid speed figure and if she transfers that form to two-turns and grass the daughter of Square Eddie will be a major player.  The jockey-trainer team of J. Rosario and J. Sadler always is tough to beat.  Destiny’s Journey is worth including as well; the daughter of Paynter made her turf debut at 61-1 in the same race Mosienko exits and improved a ton to finish a closing second, beaten less than a length.  If she runs back to that race today, she’ll be right there again.

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​​RACE 6: Post 3:07 PT. Grade: B

Use: 5-Baby Gronk; 7-Gate Speed

Forecast: ​Gate Speed wins this with a repeat of his race before last, a highly-rated romp in a maiden $40,000 claimer over this track and distance during the fall meeting.  In a field without too much speed, the M. Glatt-trained gelding should be able to make the running without undue pressure and then have every chance to dominate to the wire.  He’s reunited with “win rider” J. Rosario and remains protected in this starter’s allowance dash in a sign of confidence.  Baby Gronk gets an extra half-furlong to work with today and should settle into a comfortable second-flight, stalking position.  Never worse than second in five career starts over the Santa Anita  main track, the B. Spawr-trained gelding seems like a logical exacta partner with our top pick.  Both should be used in rolling exotic play; we’ll press with extra tickets keying Gate Speed on top.

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RACE 7: Post 3:37 PT. Grade: B

Use: 4-Nu Pi Lambda; 10-Rakassah; 11-She’s So Special

Forecast: She’s So Special turns back to a sprint and it was under similar conditions at Del Mar that the daughter of Hard Spun ran her best race, a closing second with a career top speed figure in mid-November.  She flattened out in a two-turn main track miler at Los Alamitos on dirt last month but with the switch to J. Rosario the daughter of Hard Spun appears capable of settling in mid-pack and then producing a winning late kick.  Rakassah is an intriguing English import from the P. D’Amato barn.  Her form overseas was okay – not great – but against this group the first-time Lasix user should be competitive.  F. Prat will have her doing her best work from the top of the lane to the wire.  Nu Pi Lambda has plenty of speed but has proven to be a bit suspect under pressure in the late stages.  She’ll take them as far as she can on the front end.  We’ll include all three in our rolling exotics and then have a few extra tickets keying She’s So Special on top.

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RACE 8: Post 4:07 PT. Grade: B

Use: 3-Queen Bee to You; 7-Spiced Perfection

Forecast: Spiced Perfection clearly is the best mare in the field but is unproven around two turns.  The daughter of Smiling Tiger did win a one-turn mile stakes race in New York last time out but these conditions aren’t the same.  You have to respect her, and you certainly have to  use her in rolling exotic play, but we’ll prefer the better-priced Queen Bee to You on top.  Certainly not as accomplished on resume as Spiced Perfection but a known entity around two turns and seeking her third straight score, the A. Lerner-trained mare is a versatile sort who can be tough on the front end or from off the pace. She’ll run her race, whether or not it’s good enough to upset ‘Perfection remains to be seen.

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​​RACE 9: Post 4:37 PT. Grade: B

Use: 2-Sassyserb; 11-Miss Ryleigh

Forecast: ​Miss Ryleigh closed a gap in a promising sprint debut at Golden Gate Fields last month and today goes for new connections following a private sale.  The California-bred daughter of Boat Trip is bred to handle turf; the main question is whether she’s fit enough to handle a mile with a pedigree that suggests she’d probably prefer one corner.  The J. Rosario-P. Miller team always is a powerful combo.  Sassyserb, runner-up in her last three with a career top speed figure in her most recent outing, has proven form two-turn on grass and logically is the one to fear most.  She’s guaranteed a good ground-saving trip from her inside draw and with this return to state-bred company the A. Meah-trained filly may be the most reliable in the field.  Preference on top goes to Miss Ryleigh – she has a higher ceiling – but both should be included in rolling exotic play.

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Workout Report, Day Makers, and Wagering Strategies for Saturday, Jan. 11, 2020

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