Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Santa Anita
Thursday, January 30, 2020
*
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
*
Handicappers also are encouraged to access Jeff’s Daily Santa Anita Workout Analysis (see below), an exclusive report containing commentary, fractional times, grades, and a link to the video of the actual workout by each race’s key contenders.
*
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
*
The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
Today’s Day Makers: View Video
Today’s Workout Analysis: View Report (PDF)
*
*
RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Grandpa Louie; 4-Abusive Gary
Forecast: Grandpa Louie shows up in a seller for the first time, is re-equipped with blinkers, and switches to F. Prat in this modest maiden $50,000 claiming sprint for older horses. Having failed three times as the favorite in six career starts, twice at odds-on, the P. Miller-trained gelding hardly is one to trust, but on pure numbers he really should have this group over a barrel. The bottom line, though, is at 9/5 on the morning and likely to go lower, the son of Coil won’t offer any wagering. Abusive Gary shows up in a seller for the first time, shortens to six furlongs, switches to the main track, and continues to look good in the morning. We’ll give him one more chance and include him in our rolling exotics.
*
*
RACE 2: Post 1:28 PT. Grade: X
Use: 3-Shanghai Barbie; 5-Boonesboro Beauty
Forecast: Boonesboro Beauty is a Bay Area invader with speed figures that are more than good enough to win at this restricted (nw-2) $12,500 level and she’s shown she can handle conventional dirt, having beaten maiden special weight company at Pleasanton last summer. This class drop seems realistic and she gets a break in the weights with the switch to good bug boy J. Diaz, Jr. It all adds up to a 6/5 morning line favorite. Shanghai Barbie has finished in the frame in each of her last three outings and was more than three lengths clear of the rest when runner-up over this track and distance in a similar miler for older fillies and mares 13 days ago. The N. Drysdale-trained filly has good tactical and should have every chance to seal the deal from the quarter pole home. We’ll have tickets using both in our rolling exotics.
*
*
RACE 3: Post 1:58 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Mucho Macho Woman; 5-Mela Jones; 7-Fresh Face
Forecast: Mucho Macho Woman, away since the fall meeting, returns in a maiden claimer for the first time and seems to have found her proper level. The R. Ellis-trained filly is turning back to a sprint, sports a strong recent series of works, and really doesn’t have much to beat. Mela Jones, in her second off a long layoff, returns to the main track, exits a series of tougher straight maiden turf sprints, and has speed figures that make her the one to beat for the potent Cedillo/Carava team. She appears the quickest of the quick and will take them as far as she can. Fresh Face has trained a bit better than her moderate work tab gives her credit for, so we’ll toss her in as well. She’s a daughter of Uncle Mo debuting in a claimer, not an encouraging sign, but if she can run at all she’ll fit with these.
*
*
RACE 4: Post 2:29 PT. Grade: X
Single: 8-Border Town
Forecast: Five of the eight entrants in this maiden special weight turf miler for older horses exits the same race, the Jan. 5th event over this course and distance that was won by Lincoln City. Border Town in his first outing since September, his first for R. Mandella, and his first since arriving from New York, would seem to have the most reason to improve, and was second in that race while beaten a head despite a slow start. With a trouble free trip today, the son of War Front should be able to earn his diploma in his fourth career start. However, at 2-1 on the morning line and likely to go lower he’ll probably not offer much in the way of wagering value.
*
*
RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Will Dancer; 3-Blame It On Kitty
Forecast: Will Dancer just broke his maiden over this track and distance in a productive bottom-rung affair with a career top speed figure and is realistically spotted in this restricted (nw-2) $12,500 event for older horses. The son of Will Take Charge won that race gate-to-wire and we suspect similar front-running tactics will be employed right back. Based on the projected race-shape of this race, the E. Truman-trained colt should find himself as the controlling speed once again. Blame It On Kitty has no tactical speed but he is dropping significantly in class and returning to the main track, so improvement is possible. The Blame gelding has back numbers that fit and may improve with the switch to A. Cedillo. Will Dancer gets the edge on top but both should be included in your rolling exotics.
*
*
RACE 6: Post 3:31 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-You’reright Again; 3-Mosienko; 5-Shootin Money
Forecast: Mosienko returns to a sprint, tackles boys and based on pure form should be able to compete strongly under these conditions. The daughter of Hat Trick is plenty quick but projects to draft into an ideal pace-stalking position and then have dead aim when it matters in the final stages. Shooting Money got away with easy splits when breaking his maiden for $30,000 on New Year’s Day and is protected today while switching to grass. His pedigree doesn’t guarantee he’ll improve on turf but that doesn’t mean he won’t like it. With another forward move, he should be right there. You’reright Again moves up in class but has plenty of early zip and from the rail should take them a long way, maybe even gate-to-wire. He’s a tad slower on speed figures than the other main players but has the pedigree to handle on grass, so we’ll toss him in on a ticket or two as well.
*
*
RACE 7: Post 4:02 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 8-Lightning Fast
Forecast: Lightning Fast, freshened since mid-November and returning as a first-time gelding, lands the cozy outside post in this extended sprint for maiden state-bred 3-year-olds and catches what appears to be a below par field for the level. He’s fast enough on speed figures to win, sports a recent healthy work tab, and hails from a barn that boasts superior stats with layoff runners. At 5/2 on the morning line, the W. Spawr-trained gelding is a straight play and rolling exotic single.
*
*
