Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Saratoga Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Sunday, July 21, 2019

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6. 

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches.  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies

Saratoga

Sunday, July 21, 2019

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Today’s Day Makers: View Video

RACE 1: Post 12:20 ET. Grade: B

Single: 1-Markhan

Forecast: Markhan just won a nice race on the flat at Parx and before that crushed a maiden steeplechase field, so the ex-Irish performer should be the one to beat in the opener, which was rescheduled today after being washed out earlier this week.

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​​RACE 2: Post 12:55 ET. Grade: C

Use: 2-Mandatory Payout; 3-Brush Country

Forecast: The morning line favorite, Business Cycle (6/5), has been scratched off the program, so this race takes on a different look.   Brush Country plummets to his lowest level ever and has races in his chart that are more than good enough to win, but class droppers like this are shaky, especially at short prices.   Mandatory Payout is another that has been facing better and has numbers that fit, so he’s a contender as well.   In a race that is best left alone, you can include both in your rolling exotics or go deeper if you so inclined.

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​​RACE 3: Post 1:30 ET. Grade: C

Use: 5-Crypto Gold; 8-Bad Boy

Forecast: With even money morning line favorite Value Engineering scratching off the program, this maiden claiming turf router opens up a bit.  Bad Boy has been facing straight maidens lately and finishing fairly close without being able to punch it in.  His numbers, though, are more than good enough to win a modest affair like this, so the Curlin gelding should get most of the play.  Crypto Gold probably is worth including on a ticket or two as well; he’s a first-off-the-claim for Rice (28%) and actually finished first in a race (a maiden $40,000) last May at Belmont Park but had his number taken down.  There are far more attractive wagering opportunities later in the program, to be sure.

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​​​RACE 4: Post 2:07 ET. Grade: X

Use: 1-Guarana; 5-Point of Honor

Forecast: Here’s yet another race to pass, as undefeated Guarana is 2/5 on the morning line after destroying a top field by six widening lengths in the Acorn S.-G1 last month.  There’s no reason she won’t handle today’s nine furlong trip, but at her price there is no point in gambling to find out.  If you think the daughter of Ghostzapper might be vulnerable, you’ll be interested in Black-Eyed Susan winner Point of Honor, proven at today’s nine furlong trip but not as fast on numbers or nearly as brilliant as the odds-on favorite.  If Guarana can’t get the trip, Point of Honor is the logical alternative. 

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​​RACE 5: Post 2:44 ET. Grade: B+

Use: 6-Majority Rules; 7-Spice Road

Forecast: Majority Rules came up a tad short in a very promising debut in May at Belmont Park, finishing eagerly but just missing in a strong race for straight maidens over a mile.  The son of Tiznow goes two-turns and tries a mile and one-eighth off that one race and we suspect the C. Brown-trained colt will step forward considerably.  Spice Road just finished first in a maiden race in the mud at Belmont Park late last month but had his number taken down, so the Street Sense colt will try again and this time, hopefully, maintain a straight course.  Like Majority Rules, ‘Road will be trying nine furlongs and two-turns for the first time and shouldn’t be inconvenienced in the least.  Both should be used in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Majority Rules.

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​​RACE 6: Post 3:20 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Chestnut Street; 4-Galadriel’s Light; 7-Trixie’s Time

Forecast: ​This restricted (nw-2) $30,000 claiming turf miler for older fillies and mares contains many question marks and requires a spread.  We’ll go three-deep but you should definitely include as many as your budget allows.  Chestnut Street launches a comeback for new trainer Handal (had been in the C. Brown stable last year) and won over this course last year when graduating in straight maiden company.  The daughter of Scat Daddy will be running on strongly late and if she gets some help up front could produce a winning late bid.  Worth noting in this barn’s superior statistics with layoff runners. Trixie’s Time may be a tad better than her 10-1 morning line gives her credit for and could pull off a surprise if she can establish the pace without pressure.  Clearly a need-the-lead type, the daughter of Hat Trick hails from a high-percentage outfit and has numbers that make her dangerous at a nice price.  Galadriel’s Light looked decent breaking her maiden for a tag last month at Belmont Park, but the speed figure came up modest, which explains her 12-1 morning line.  She’s lightly-raced and eligible to produce another forward move, so the daughter of Will Take Charge probably is worth tossing in on a ticket or two.

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RACE 7: Post 3:56 ET. Grade: A

Single: 10-Sequin

Forecast: Sequin is a rocket ship, plain and simply.  Purchased for $500,00 at the Fasig-Tipton March 2-year-old in training sale where she was scintillating in her preview breeze, the daughter of the first-crop sire Bayern blew out around dogs on turf last week in 47 2/5 seconds, fastest of 34 for the distance.  She had the misfortunate of drawing the 10-hole in the five and one-half furlong dash, but it shouldn’t matter.  The W. Ward-trained filly is 3-1 on the morning but is certain to go lower and is a logical straight play and rolling exotic single. 

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​​RACE 8: Post 4:32 ET. Grade: B

Use: 2-Three Technique; 6-Basin; 7-Mr Thrifty

Forecast: Basin was nosed out by By Your Side when even money in his debut at Churchill Downs last month and had the form franked with ‘Side won the Sanford Stakes in his next outing here last week.  The son of Liam’s Map certainly has a right to produce a forward move off that excellent initial impression for the Asmussen barn, which hits at a solid 21 % with second-timers.  Three Technique was bet off the board in his debut (left at 4/5) but had to settle for second money while earning a strong figure in a hot race won by Took Charge last month.  The son of Mr Speaker seems certain to improve off that race and enjoy today’s extra furlong, so with J. Ortiz staying aboard he’s the one to fear most.  We’ll also include Mr Thrifty, second in his first outing at Parx last month in a photo while more than six lengths clear of the rest.  The speed figure says he’s a fit with these, and like the others, he has every right to step forward with a race under his belt. 

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RACE 9: Post 5:09 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Variant Perception; 2-Penalty; 8-Halladay; 10-Hoboe

Forecast: This first-level allowance turf miler looks highly contentious with a number of solid contenders.  Variant Perception is guaranteed a good ground-saving trip from his inside draw and the Curlin colt is steadily improving with experience.  Though beaten at 2/5 in a photo at Monmouth Park in late May, the C. Brown-trained four-year-old actually earned a career top speed figure and the colt that beat him, King of Spades, came back to win.  Castellano, who was aboard when ‘Perception broke his maiden two races back, returns.  Penalty, runner-up in his last pair at this level in Kentucky, is solid on speed figures and should be running on strongly late.  Halladay graduated with a nice number sprinting on turf at Belmont Park last month and should be on or near the lead throughout.  If not policed, he’ll take them a long way.  Hoboe is stuck outside but ran very well in both of his prior starts over the Saratoga lawn and his recent form puts in the thick of things from off the pace.  If he can secure room when set down in a race with normal fractions, the Donk-trained gelding could get up in time. 

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RACE 10: Post 5:43 ET. Grade: 

Use: 2-Restoring Hope; 7-Identify Politics; 8-Borracho

Forecast: Here’s another deep allowance race with several legitimate possibilities.  Identity Politics is a prototype late-running sprinter and was able to wear down a softer field when last seen in mid-May at Belmont Park.  The C. Brown-trained son of Into Mischief has been training in steady fashion ever since and should be primed for a forward move while rising one level on the class ladder.  He’s Grade-1 placed (second in the Malibu S. at Santa Anita last December) and strikes us as having plenty of room for development.  Borracho, a fast-finishing third in the Woody Stephens S.-G1 in a race that fell apart late and was dominated by late-runners, earned a career top speed figure in that outing, one that if repeated today puts him right there.  However, both of his prior races at Saratoga last year were poor, so that’s a bit of a concern.  Restoring Hope, clearly most effective around one turn, scored nicely in his comeback last March but hasn’t been out since.  The work tab for the Jason Servis-trained colt is sketchy, but if the son of Giant’s Causeway delivers his best stuff he’ll be in the battle every step of the way.

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RACE 11: Post 6:16 ET. Grade: A-

Single: 5-Morticia

Forecast: Morticia is hickory in these abbreviated turf sprints for fillies and mares and should draft into her usual pace-stalking position and then exert her influence when it matters in the final furlong.  First or second in 15 of 22 career starts, the daughter of Twirling Candy beats this field with anything close to her best, so we’ll make her a straight play and rolling exotic single. 

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RACE 12: Post 6:48 ET. Grade: B

Use: 4-Monaghan; 8-Internet of Things

Forecast: State-bred entry-level allowance older horses meet in a two-turn inner turf course affair that offers at least a couple of possibilities. Internet of Things looks intriguing, so we’ll put the son of Mineshaft slightly on top in his first try on grass.  The C. Brown-trained colt has yet to actually finish first in a race – he won his maiden via disqualification - but with just three career starts the lightly-raced 3-year-old has plenty of room to develop and we suspect he’ll produce a strong forward move under these conditions.  Monaghan has rising numbers and just beat a restricted (nw-2) $30,000 claiming field in good style at Belmont Park last month.  With continued improvement, the Nevin-trained gelding should be able to act at this level. We’ll sink or swim using just these two in our rolling exotics, with preference on top to Internet of Things.

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RACE 13: Post 7:20 ET. Grade: X

Use: 1-She’s a Julie; 5-Wow Cat

Forecast: Wow Cat was beaten a neck in this race last year off a long layoff, and this will be her first start since finishing second in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff-G1 last November.  With a history of firing fresh, an impressive series of recent workouts, and from a barn that hits at 28% with layoff runners the Chilean-bred mare should be tough to beat. She’s a Julie, an excellent third to Elate in the Fleur di Lis H.-G2 at Churchill Downs in her most recent outing last month, draws the rail and should be on or near the lead throughout in a race that projects to have fairly soft early fractions.  Second in the Alabama S.-G1 over this main track last year, the daughter of Elusive Quality is thoroughly genuine and consistent and certainly could win if Wow Cat is a race away.  Both should be used in rolling exotic play.

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Saratoga Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Sunday, July 21, 2019

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