Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Saratoga Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Thursday, July 11, 2019

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6. 

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches.  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies

Saratoga

Thursday, July 11, 2019

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Today’s Day Makers:

Eighth Race – Comical (view video analysis)

Ninth Race – Listing (view video analysis)

Today’s Bullet Drill: (view video segment)

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RACE 1: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 3-Blurred Line; 6-Tiz No Bluff; 7-Real Dan

Forecast: After a promising start to a career that has clearly been compromised by physical issues, Real Dan is being culled from the stable following failures as the favorite in his last two starts vs. first-level state-bred allowance foes.  The Todd Pletcher-trained gelding certainly isn’t one to trust, but against this group of restricted (nw-3) $14,000 claimers the lightly-raced son of Flatter has numbers that are more than good enough to win.  Tiz No Bluff may inherit the role as the controlling speed and given that trip he could duplicate his recent dominating win over a nw-2 group for this tag last month at Belmont Park.  Blurred Line was eight lengths clear of the rest when second at this level in November and returns for a capable outfit that has good stats in a limited sample with layoff runners.  He’s reunited with “win rider” Caramouche and should be forwardly placed in a race that likely will have a moderate-to-soft early pace. 

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​​RACE 2: Post 1:36 ET. Grade: B

Use: 2-Sayyaaf; 3-Sneakiness

Forecast: Sayyaaf shortens up a furlong and a half after being worn down late as the favorite in and will be a short price again by virtue of speed figures that continue to rise.  He did finish 3 ½ lengths clear of the rest in his last start and not much more should be needed today.  Sneakiness tries turf for the first time and projects to enjoy an ideal pace-stalking trip and then have every chance when the pressure is turned on.  Rosario stays aboard and knows him well.  Declined is drawn farther out than we’d prefer and isn’t fast enough on numbers, but he could be heard from late if given a patient ride that he may prefer. Toss him in as a saver or a back-up.

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​​RACE 3: Post 2:12 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 4-Potomac; 6-Growth Engine; 7-The Rock Says

Forecast: ​Potomac won his only prior Saratoga outing last year by nine lengths and his recent numbers are stronger now than they were at that time.  Though missing at a short price in a similar first-level allowance race last month, the Speightstown colt did finish more than four lengths clear of the rest and today finds a pace scenario that projects him as the controlling speed. That said, nine furlongs might be stretching his limit.  Growth Engine may be the main danger though he, too, enters the race as a recent beaten favorite in a very hot race at Monmouth Park in late May.  The lightly-raced Tapit gelding is back with “win rider” Castellano and should draft into a comfortable stalking spot, similar to the one he enjoyed in his Gulfstream Park maiden win two runs back.  The Rock Says has produced forward moves in every outing and has hit the board in all four career starts.  However, he has a one-paced grinding style that makes him hard to embrace. He can be included on a ticket or two.

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​​​RACE 4: Post 2:48 ET. Grade: C

Use: 2-Local Hero; 5-Gosilently; 7-Zap Daddy; 10-Bootlegger

Forecast: This grass grab bag requires a spread in rolling exotic play.  We’ll use four and hope to skate by.  Local Hero may be as good as any in here, though his record of two wins from 21 starts (with 11 seconds or thirds) makes him difficult to count on.  The Hard Spun gelding was almost six lengths clear of the rest in a solid Churchill Downs runner-up effort last month, is a fit on numbers, and seems certain to enjoy a good ground-saving, pace-stalking trip.  Gosilently is the probable pace-setter but is another that always has been suspect in the final stages (two career wins, 14 placings).  Against this group he could get brave if he’s allowed to establish the running without pressure, but there appears to be other speed in here, namely, Bootlegger, a two-time winner over this turf course and quick enough to get over from his outside draw and secure a pace-stalking spot.  However, his form indicates he’s a need-the-lead type, so he may not wait around for anyone.  Zap Daddy stretches out again, has numbers that fit, and may be the most dangerous from off the pace, especially if a faster than par early fractions materialize.  Due to the uncertain race flow, this race looks chaotic, so tread lightly.

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​​RACE 5: Post 3:28 ET. Grade: C+

Use:2-Love Me Tomorrow; 3-Ghostghostgphost; 8-Aubrey Tate; 9-Funfetti

Forecast: Leave Me Tomorrow has the benefit of a prior run and was six lengths clear of the rest when third in a similar state-bred affair in late May.  The primary concern is that the race wasn’t really strong and was assigned a weak speed figure, but a recent bullet workout gives hope that a forward move is likely for a barn that hits with an exceptional 30 percent with second-time starters.  Among the newcomers, Ghostghostghost looks the most intriguing.  The Asmussen barn has strong stats with debut runners (22% with a flat-bet profit) and a bullet five furlong 1:01 3/5 seconds gate work last month over the Belmont Park training track indicates the daughter of Archarcharch may have some run.  Aubrey Tate, from the first crop of Bayern but only a $20,000 yearling buy, shows a gate work at Churchill Downs (48 seconds, 3rd fastest of 97) last month that catches the eye, while Funfetti sports a workout for a highly capable outfit in mid-June (48 2/5 seconds gate drill, 3rd fastest of 64) that makes her a “must use.”

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​​RACE 6: Post 4:03 ET. Grade: C

Use: 1a-Veterans Beach; 6-Bronx Bomber; 11-Elenzee

Forecast: ​This is another messy affair that has several possibilities and requires a spread in rolling exotic play.  We’ll go three-deep, but feel free to use as many as you can afford.  Veterans Beach performed below expectations when unplaced in the New York Stallion Stakes last month but his runner-up effort at this level two runs back puts him the picture in this softer spot.  The Donk-trained son of Big Brown is reunited with Franco, who won on him in his debut over this course and distance last year, so we’ll put him slightly on top.  Bronx Bomber, first or second in each of his last four outings with gradually rising speed figures, shows a similar stalking style to Veteran Beach and should have every chance.  However, as a son of Take Charge Indy, his pedigree doesn’t guarantee any significant improvement with the surface switch to turf.  Elenzee is wheeled back quickly (six days) following a gate-to-wire turf sprint win at Belmont Park in a restricted $30,000 seller and projects as the quickest of the quick.  The short rest is a major concern but in a race lacking in effective closers he could carry this field a long way.

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RACE 7: Post 4:39 ET. Grade: B

Use: 4-Giant Zinger; 10-Wegetsdmunnys; 11-Classic Lady

Forecast: Giant Zinger exits a pair of infinitely tougher open graded stakes races - she was a respectable third in the Sheepshead Bay Stakes two runs back – and today finds monumental class relief with the drop into a second-level state-bred affair.  She seems most effective when held up and allowed to run late and given that type of ride from Alvarado the Mott-trained daughter of Giant’s Causeway should be along in time.  Classic Lady crushed a first condition allowance state-bred field in mid-May with a career-top number in a performance that should make her competitive right back on the one-level raise. She sports a solid, steady work tab leading up to this race, and Franco will have her doing her best work from the quarter pole home.  Wegetsdamunnys, a closing fourth (beaten two lengths) in the Mt. Vernon Stakes six weeks ago with a career top number, switches to Rosario and was an excellent second (beaten a nose) in her only prior outing (a New York-bred stakes) at Saratoga last year.

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​​RACE 8: Post 5:15 ET. Grade: B

Use: 1-Shippy; 5-Comical

Forecast: Trainer Doug O’Neill is represented by two major players in this traditional opening day stakes for juvenile fillies.  Although the form of her visually impressive debut maiden win hasn’t held up particularly well, the victory by Comical at Santa Anita (view Black Book analysis) really caught the eye.  The daughter of Into Mischief should enjoy today’s extra furlong and a half and has been working in pleasing style (view June 29 workout) in the interim.  Shippy left at 40 cents on the dollar in her debut and ran to her backing with a nearly 11-length, highly-rated score at Laurel last month (view Black Book analysis), after which she was sold privately and turned over to O’Neill.  The rail probably does her no favors, but if she leaves cleanly and secures a good stalking position the daughter of Midshipman will be dangerous despite the infinitely tougher competition. 

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RACE 9: Post 5:51 ET. Grade: B+

Use: 4-Listing; 6-Call Paul

Forecast: Listing brings excellent turf sprinting form from California and should be able to duplicate his best race in the Quick Call Stakes, a grass dash restricted to 3-year-olds.  The son of Square Eddie has sufficient early zip to press the pace but can stalk and pounce if the situation presents itself to Rosario.  He’s not quite as fast on speed figures as Call Paul, but the son of Square Eddie is proven on grass, and he easily handled quality opposition in the Desert Code Stakes in his most recent outing last month.  We can’t really say that Call Paul is bred to improve on grass, but if he can perform at least as well on turf as he has on dirt the Jason Servis-trained colt will be hard to deny. There are others in here that probably are a bit quicker than he is, but the son of Friesan Fire certainly doesn’t need the lead to win, and on pure numbers he appears capable of producing the last run. 

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RACE 10: Post 6:25 ET. Grade: B+

Use: 4-Claddagh’s Run; 5-Darling of the Spa; 8-Encore Kitten

Forecast: Maiden claimers over a middle distance on turf often can be challenging, but this race should boil down to three main contenders.  Darling of the Spa has seemingly been in training forever and finally makes it to the post midway through her four-year-old season.  She brought nothing ($10,000) as a yearling, so this is a realistic spot for the daughter of Temple City, who clearly has had more than her share of issues.  This barn doesn’t debut many runners for a tag, but the record is what’d you expect – very good – and we suspect this daughter of Temple City is ready to display winning form right off the bat.  Claddagh’s Run appears the best of the known element and probably won’t need to improve much to graduate following a solid runner-up effort last month at this level in what was just her second career start.  The Weaver-trained filly retains Davis and will be running on well through the lane.  Encore Kitten, beaten a neck at Churchill Downs in similar maiden claiming turf router, earned a competitive speed figure and is another that seems certain to improve with experience. 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Saratoga Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Thursday, July 11, 2019

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