Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Saratoga Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Wednesday, August 21, 2019

Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies

Saratoga

Wednesday, August 21, 2019

*

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6. 

*

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

*

Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.  

Grade B=Solid Play.  

Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.  

Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

*

​The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches.  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

*

​​*

Today’s Day Makers: View video

*

*

RACE 1: Post 12:50 ET. Grade: X

Use: Pass/No Play

Forecast: Today’s opener, a steeplechase event, has been cancelled due to weather.

*

*

​​RACE 2: Post 1:22 ET. Grade: X

Use: 1-South of the Shore; 5-Smooth With a Kick

Forecast: C. Brown holds the aces in this five-runner, nine-furlong, main track first-level allowance race for fillies and mares.  Smooth With a Kick, listed as the 7/5 morning line favorite, just crushed a maiden field by more than five lengths while earning a career top speed figure and this lightly-raced daughter of Candy Ride seems sure to continue her improving pattern with age, distance, and experience.  A recent workout in company with subsequent Alabama S.-G1 winner Dunbar Road indicates she’s spot on for another major effort.  Stablemate South of the Shore, a distant second to Dunbar Road in her most recent appearance in late May, also has been training well and has plenty of room to improve even as a 4-year-old.  The daughter of Union Rags should fold into an ideal pace-stalking, ground-saving trip and have every chance to upset her barn mate, though at 8/5 on the morning line we’d hardly call it a major surprise.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and then press with extra tickets keying Smooth With a Kick on top.

*

*

​​RACE 3: Post 1:54 ET. Grade: B

Single: 7-Shackleford’s Joy

Forecast: ​ 7-Shackleford’s Joy exits an infinity tougher race and this drop into the maiden $75,000 ranks should make a world of difference for the W. Lukas-trained juvenile.  Drawn comfortably outside and adding Lasix, he sports a bullet workout since raced over the Saratoga training track in 48 1/5 seconds, fastest of 14 for the distance.  Based on is first race, the son of Shackleford should be the controlling speed and against this group may never look back.  At 3-1 on the morning line he’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.

*

*

​​​RACE 4: Post 2:26 ET. Grade: X

Use: 1-Highland Sky; 5-Red Knight

Forecast: The John’s Call Stakes will be run at a mile and one-quarter and has been taken off the turf due to weather.  Highland Sky has no history on a wet track so how he’ll perform under these conditions is anybody’s guess, but his pedigree suggests he’ll handle the surface and on pure form he’s good enough to win.  Ditto for Red Knight.  In a race that has been reduced to four runners, we’ll include these two in our rolling exotics but otherwise sit it out. 

*

*

​​RACE 5: Post 2:58 ET. Grade: X

Single: 7-Jewel of Arabia

Forecast: Jewel of Arabia is the only filly in this field of maiden juveniles with a prior run, and hers came when a sharp third in the Stillwater Stakes here last month.  She drops into the maiden ranks for a confidence builder and at even money on the money line is expected to simply outclass the field.  Unless there is something especially good among the newcomers, this C. Clement-trained daughter of Daredevil should earn her diploma as a short-priced, no-value rolling exotic single. 

*

*

​​RACE 6: Post 3:30 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Smite; 8-Saint Marco

Forecast: The sixth race has been taken off the turf and shortened to seven furlongs due to wet weather.  Smite, originally a Day Maker for us when this race was carded around two-turns on turf, has the benefit of a nice sprint prep under his belt – a reasonable fourth vs. state-bred competition, beaten less than three lengths - and goes for the J. Sharp barn that has good stats with second-time starters.  Hard to say if the rail or the off track will have an impact on his chances.  Best advice is to monitor the early races to see if any anti-inside bias exists.  Saint Marco closed a gap in his debut when a non-threatening fifth in the same race Smite exits and should step forward today with the added distance.  The son of Tonalist sports a bullet five furlong workout at Fair Hill since that outing and will be running on strongly for good connections.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and then press in the straight pool with Smite. 

*

*

RACE 7: Post 4:02 ET. Grade: X

Use: 2-Autostrade; 7-So Conflated

Forecast: This race has been reduced to four starters.  We’ll pass, but those who are playing rolling exotics should consider So Conflated and Autostrade.  The former drops significantly in class, is comfortably drawn outside, and has a pedigree to handle a wet surface, while the latter, in his first off the claim for B. Brown, turns back from a route and has won at this seven furlong distance in the past. 

*

*

RACE 8: Post 4:34 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 2-Annie Rocks; 7-China Rider

Forecast: The eighth race has been taken off the turf.  Annie Rocks remains above her claim level in a sign of confidence, loves any kind of wet track, and may be able to tag the speed even though this abbreviated sprint distance would seem to be a bit shorter than she prefers.  The class-dropping China Rider still remains well above her claim level and has had prior success over a wet surface.  Tread lightly.

*

*

RACE 9: Post 5:06 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 1a-Runningwscissors; 3-Our Last Buck; 9-Samay

Forecast: Runningwscissors is better than his last race indicates and should be given a chance to bounce back.  In his second start since joining the T. Amoss barn and arriving from Emerald Downs, the New York-bred son of Congaree switches to R. Santana, Jr. and has several back speed figures that are good enough to beat this first-level allowance state-bred group.  Our Last Buck earned a giant speed figure last February when finishing second by a head at the Big A before going to the sidelines.  His comeback performance was less than inspiring – he wound up seventh, beaten nearly 11 lengths – but he returns to the main track and seems likely to perk up if he can act on the wet surface.  Samay drew outside most of the other speed types in quest of his fourth straight victory.  On numbers he’s competitive and he’s a perfect two-for-two over an off track, but the Finger Lakes form sometimes is tough to trust.  Given his winning spirit (6 for 9 lifetime) he has to be considered a major player. 

*

*

RACE 10: Post 5:38 ET. Grade: X

Single: Saloon Girl

Forecast: The nightcap has been taken off the turf and that’s good news for Saloon Girl, a main-track only entrant that should have this field at her mercy, but at a very short price.  The lightly-raced daughter of Alpha removes blinkers, has rising numbers, a comfortable outside post, and speed figures that should allow her to handle this assignment without having to exert too much energy.  She’s an obvious no value rolling exotic single.

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Saratoga Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Wednesday, August 21, 2019

Jeff Siegel's Blog |