Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Saratoga Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Wednesday, August 7, 2019

Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies

Saratoga

Wednesday, August 7, 2019

*

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6. 

*

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

*

Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.  

Grade B=Solid Play.  

Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.  

Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

*

​The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches.  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

*

​​*

Today’s Day Makers: View video

*

RACE 1: Post 12:50 ET. Grade: None

Pass/No Play

Forecast: Today’ opener is a hurdle race.  We will pass the race.

*

*

​​RACE 2: Post 1:22 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Bears Mafia; 9-Grammi Dance

Forecast:  Grammi Dance tries grass for the first time and is bred to handle it on both sides of his pedigree.  Away since Dec. 31, the M. Nevin-trained gelding sports a steady, healthy work pattern and has numbers last year when a 2-year-old that make him a strong fit at this level.  If he returns at least as well as he left, the son of Twirling Candy can pull of a surprise at 8-1 on the morning line.  Bears Mafia has been chasing tougher straight maiden foes lately and should greatly appreciate this significantly softer spot.  He’s a major contender, for sure, but offers little value at 8/5 on the morning line.  We’ll prefer the much better priced Grammi Dance on top but include both in our rolling exotics. 

*

*

​​RACE 3: Post 1:54 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 3-Lead Guitar; 6-Qian B C; 7-Crack Shot

Forecast (for turf only):Lead Guitar flashed promise in his debut when closing with interest to finish third in a similar maiden special weight state-bred turf sprint and can be expected to produce a forward move despite the two month gap between starts.  The son of Maclean’s Music gets a positive jockey switch to I. Ortiz, Jr. and seems capable of producing the last run with good racing luck.  Qian B C, in the money in his last three, has gradually rising speed figures, retains J. Rosario, and should be heard from in the final furlong.  Pace players are sure to embrace Crack Shot, arguably the quickest of the quick although somewhat suspect under pressure in the final furlong.  A repeat of his race before last probably wins this affair, but he was beaten as the favorite in a similar sprint over the local lawn last month despite having the early lead to himself.  The opener quarter in that race (21 2/5 seconds) probably did him in; if he’s able to slow down a tad during the first part of the race he’s liable to take this group a very long way.  

*

*

​​​RACE 4: Post 2:26 ET. Grade: B

Single: 7-Connectivity

Forecast (for turf only): Two major players - Positive Skew and Smokin Deb – have been scratched off the program, so the race takes on a whole different look.  Connectivity drops into a claimer for the first time after failing to land a blow in a listed stakes at Monmouth Park in June.  Originally purchased for $150,000 as a debut winner during the winter at Gulfstream Park, the daughter of Midshipman clearly has fallen out of favor and is being culled, but this is a group she really should handle.  The C. Brown-trained filly probably be too short to play in the straight pool but she can serve a purpose as a rolling exotic single.

*

*

​​RACE 5: Post 2:58 ET. Grade: B+

Use: 2-Thea’s Theme; 5-Saratoga Beauty; 9-Graphite Dutchess

Forecast: Saratoga Beauty is an intriguing Monmouth Park shipper with a sneaky good work tab from a barn that has good stats with 2-year-olds.  She shows one bullet workout and three others that were second fastest of the distance, so this daughter Macho Uno appears to have some run and vans up to compete in straight maiden New York bred company while bringing the barn’s “go-to” rider, P. Lopez, with her.  In an open fray, let’s go with a filly that is listed at 8-1 on the morning line and could very be much better than that.  There are two other newcomers that warrant consideration.  Thea’s Theme, a $145,000 Saratoga yearling purchase by the promising freshman stallion Bayern, has strung together a series of solid works for J. Englehart, who has excellent stats with first-time starters.  Graphite Dutchess brought $165,000 in the OBS April sale, where she previewed in 10 1/5 seconds while going well enough but appearing a bit green.  A recent gate work here last month wasn’t bad (48 2/5 seconds, fifth fastest of 70), so from a comfortable outside post at 8-1 on the morning line she’s worth including on a ticket or two in rolling exotic play.

*

*

​​RACE 6: Post 3:30 ET. Grade: B

Use: 1-Uncle Benny; 2-Elektronic; 7-Archidust

Forecast (for turf only): ​ Analysis is for turf only. When last seen last November, Uncle Benny was a fast-finishing runner-up to Line of Duty in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf over a distance of ground.  The son of Declaration of War returns in an abbreviated sprint, and it’s possible that this race is being used as a prep for a stretch-out, but it should be noted that the J. Servis-trained colt did win his debut over at five furlongs while on the pace throughout, so despite the long layoff and the brief work tab (typical for this barn) he could easily be ready for a win.  Archidust is getting faster by the race and most recently earned a career-top speed figure when winning a listed stakes at Monmouth Park with a powerful, rally-wide late kick.  A similar performance today by the J. Navarro-trained son of Verrazano may be good enough to extend his winning streak to three.  Elektronic is developing into a dangerous late-running turf sprinter and earned a career top figure when a flying home to finish a close second in the Quick Call S.-G3 here on opening day.  With another forward move and good racing luck, the son of City Zip could tag the speed.  These are the three we’ll be using in our rolling exotics; we’ll have a few extra tickets keying Uncle Benny on top.

*

*

RACE 7: Post 4:02 ET. Grade: B

Use: 6-Hardcore Folklore; 7-Lost in Manhattan

Forecast:  Hardcore Folklore, a thoroughly genuine and consistent invader from Delaware Park, has speed figures that make him a strong fit at this level on this circuit and has the perfect second flight, stalking style for this extended sprint distance.  From a high percentage outfit, the Curlin gelding attracts I. Ortiz, Jr. and should have every chance from the quarter pole home.  Lost in Manhattan shows up in a claimer for the first time after earning a career top speed figure when fourth in a tougher state-bred allowance race last May.  He may have problems or perhaps this is nothing more than a drop for the money by an aggressive stable that has enjoyed a terrific Saratoga meeting so far.  The D. Gargan-trained gelding is 6-1 on the morning and is a wagering number at that price.  These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics with preference to Hardcore Folklore on top.

*

*

RACE 8: Post 4:34 ET. Grade: B+

Use: 3-Clench; 4-Laser Loop; 8-El Asesino

Forecast: This starter’s allowance ($50,000) extended sprint has several legitimate contenders and requires a spread in rolling exotic play.  We’ll go three deep but otherwise pass the race.  Monmouth Park shipper Clench was no match for the fastest 3-year-old sprinter in the U.S. (Shancelot) when chasing that colt home in an allowance race in June but was five lengths clear of the third horse, a next out winner, and earned a career top number while doing so.  The sophomore colt by The Factor faces older horses today, but the J. Servis-trained colt will outrun this group if his improvement continues.  Laser Loop looked good winning a restricted (nw-2) $14,000 claimer a couple of weeks ago with a career-top speed figure, was claimed by G. Contessa, and tackles a considerably more difficult field in his first-off-the-claim.  The Smart Strike gelding is lightly raced with three wins in 9 career starts and could have another forward move in him, so at 8-1 he’s worth tossing in.  El Asesino, from the high percentage R. Diodoro stable, finished a well-beaten second in a hot recent allowance race here last month and should go better against this lesser bunch.  He’s winless in seven starts this year but his numbers make him a fit, so we’ll include him a ticket or two as a back-up. 

*

*

RACE 9: Post 5:06 ET. Grade: X

Single: 2-Mr. Bluff

Forecast: Mr. Bluff is listed as the 6/5 morning line favorite in this year’s edition of the Evan Shipman S. and based on his recent runaway win in the Saginaw Bay S. at Belmont Park five weeks ago the son of Friend and Foe very much deserves to be a short price.  A nine-time winner and first or second in 15 of 29 career starts, the veteran gelding is thoroughly genuine and consistent and won a race over this track and distance last year by nine lengths, indicating he’s just as tough at Saratoga as he is everywhere else.  Though there will be no value in the straight pool, we can make the son of Friend Or Foe a logical short priced rolling exotic single.

*

*

RACE 10: Post 5:38 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Teletype; 8-Shannon’s Girl; 10-Ghostly Beauty

Forecast (for turf only): The finale is a grass grab bag for maiden claiming fillies and mares over five and one-half furlongs.  Ghostly Beauty is a first-off-the-claim play for T. Morley after tipping her hand when an excellent runner-up to next out winner Tiple while more than five lengths clear of the rest.  She’s been off for two months and isn’t being protected on the raise, so perhaps the barn doesn’t love the new merchandise, but her work pattern is healthy enough so we’ll assume she’s ready to repeat the quality of her last outing.  Teletype likewise makes her first start since being haltered for $40,000, and the R. Rodriguez barn always is dangerous (27% with a flat-bet profit) with this maneuver.  She should be prominent throughout and have every chance.  Shannon’s Girl, yet another making her first start since being claimed for $40,000 (by S. Asmussen) does her best work as a late-running sprinter and will be heard from late with a decent pace to chase and clear sailing through the lane.  Slight preference on top goes to Ghostly Beauty but this race certainly requires a spread in rolling exotic play.

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Saratoga Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Wednesday, August 7, 2019

Jeff Siegel's Blog |