Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Tampa Bay Downs
Wednesday, April 15, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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RACE 1: Post 12:30 ET. Grade: B
Single: 1-Little Natalia
Forecast: Little Natalia shows a relatively brief work tab at Gulfstream Park for her comeback, her first race since her debut last July and her first for new trainer A. Machado. She lands top jockey A. Gallardo, sports a bullet three-furlong gate drill (36 4/5, fastest of four) late last month, and displayed some early speed in her only outing despite some early trouble. In a race that on paper figures to be slowly run early, the daughter of Handsome Mike could find herself on the front end, assuming she breaks well from the rail. In a race in which the known element is lackluster at best, let’s go with a fresh face and make her a straight play and rolling exotic single at or near her morning line of 2-1.
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RACE 2: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 1-The Connector; 8-My Eclair
Forecast: The Connector, a son of City Zip colt from a Hard Spun winning half-sister to the terrific grass race mare Gotta Have Her, brought $250,000 as a Saratoga yearling and makes his debut sprinting on turf for a capable outfit. He has displayed enough ability in his main track workouts to expect a good effort first crack out of the box, and in a field that lacks depth he must be considered a major player at 5-1 on the morning line. The barn’s go-to rider takes the call, so with a clean break from the rail we’re expecting this T. Proctor-trained sophomore to have chance to produce a mild upset. My Éclair is the logical top pick, having displayed good speed in both of his starts. Shortening from a mile to a more preferred five furlong trip, the son of Speightstown ran well over this course and distance when second in his debut. The switch to top rider A. Gallardo is a positive factor while the outside draw shouldn’t be in an issue. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics with slight preference on top, mostly due to price considerations, to The Connector.
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RACE 3: Post 1:30 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Blue Chicory; 8-Blazing Brooke
Forecast: Blazing Brooke, a two-time winner over the local main track but a tad soft in the speed figure department, was four lengths clear of the rest when runner-up in a similar $6,250 two-turn affair here last month and will get plenty of play based on current form and strong connections. The K. O’Connell-trained filly has a good stalking style that should keep her free of trouble and provide her every chance to regain her winning form. Blue Chicory left her previous form behind with a dominating recent win vs. restricted (nw-3) $8,000 sellers over this track and distance after shipping up from Gulfstream Park. She goes from an extreme outside post to the good rail and on pure numbers actually is a bit faster than ‘Brooke. We’ll operate under the assumption that the winner will be one or the other, so we’ll include both in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring Blue Chicory on top.
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RACE 4: Post 2:00 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Overpraise; 5-Milburn;
Forecast: It appears trainer A. Granitz holds this aces in this $16,000 maiden claiming middle distance turf affair. Milburn had a couple of runs last year in straight maiden company, including a solid third place effort over this course in his debut. He returns in a moderate spot after a series of slow and easy drills at the Solera Farm Training Center in the northern part of the state. Let’s hope he’s ready. One of the barn’s go-to riders S. Camacho takes the call, so if this homebred son of Lemon Drop Kid returns as well as he left he’ll be tough to beat. The “other” Granitz in the field is another returning from a layoff, the Woodbine shipper Overpraise, who also has been prepared at Solera Farm. Unplaced in a pair of grass races in tougher straight maiden company but earning speed figures that make him a fit in this league, the son of Flatter may very well wind up being the pace-setter in race that projects to have soft early fractions. Given that type of trip, he could be dangerous. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics with preference to Milburn, but it’s a keep-your-fingers-crossed type of race.
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RACE 5: Post 2:30 ET. Grade: X
Single: 8-Federale
Forecast: Maiden $40,000 claimers sprint six furlongs in the fifth race, a modest affair featuring an apparent standout, Federale. The Discreetly Mine gelding adds blinkers while dropping into a seller and should be too quick for these, assuming that none of the newcomers are better than average for this level. Third with a career top speed figure in his recent comeback in straight maiden company here last month, the D. Bennett-trained gelding is listed as the 9/5 morning line favorite but probably will go lower. We’ll make him a no value rolling exotic single but otherwise pass the race.
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RACE 6: Post 3:00 ET. Grade: C
Use: 4-Rosalda; 6-I’m That Bird; 9-Big Angel
Forecast: Here’s a spread race, a middle-distance turf event for restricted (nw-2) $10,000 claiming fillies and mares. Rosalda has steadily improving speed figures and both of her career outings on grass weren’t bad, most recently when fourth in a much tougher $20,000 open affair here last month. A similar effort today could be good enough to beat this soft group. I’m That Bird also is dropping out of a tougher affair and is lightly-raced with possible improvement in her. She has numbers that fit, picks up S. Camacho, and hails from a solid outfit. Big Angel has a prior win over the course and numbers that fit. She’s a one-paced grinder who could be heard from late with a bit of help up front. Tread lightly here.
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RACE 7: Post 3:30 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 7-Devil’s Rule; 8-Absalom; 9-Jack B Winkle
Forecast: Jack B Winkle exits a stronger state-bred allowance optional claimer, and although he didn’t run up to his abilities in that race the Ford Larned gelding should improve a bunch at this level. His best race can win it, and from a comfortable outside draw for a strong trainer-jockey combo he should be capable of a bounce-back effort. Absalom looks intriguing at 6-1 in this extended sprint for restricted (nw-2) $16,000 claimers. He has the route-to-sprint, turf to dirt angle that we like for a good outfit and should be on or near the lead throughout. His one dirt race wasn’t much, but it came against tougher and it was off long layoff so we won’t hold it against him. Devil’s Rule, away since December, has low percentage connections but numbers that fit, and if he’s reasonably okay following the layoff in his first race for a tag, the Illinois-bred gelding rates a look and is worth including.
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RACE 8: Post 4:00 ET. Grade: C
Use: 1-Strong Gem; 2-Jackies Dream
Forecast: This split of the sixth race is borderline inscrutable. We’ll try to get by using just two but the best advice is to go as deep as your budget allows. Strong Gem projects to enjoy a good ground-saving trip, drops to a realistic spot, and has been first or second in three of four career starts over the Tampa Bay Downs turf course. At this level she should improve enough to be a strong off-the-pace threat. Jackies Dream also has been chasing tougher and has numbers that make her a fit. Likewise, she will be doing her best work late.
