Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Tampa Bay Downs
Wednesday, May 6, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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RACE 1: Post 1:30 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Prison Padre; 4-Temple Mount; 6-Dig In
Forecast: A little will go a very long way in the Wednesday opener, a two-turn restricted (nw-2) $8,000 claimer that should be treated with extreme caution. Prison Padre returned off a 16-month vacation to finish a respectable fourth vs. similar last month and has right to produce a forward move from a good inside draw that should guarantee a ground-saving trip. His overall form – like the rest of these – borders on awful but at least he’s hit the board in three of four career starts over the Tampa Bay Downs main track and hails from a capable outfit, so at 4-1 on the morning line he’s as good as any. Dig In, a solid runner-up at this level two races back but nowhere with a wide trip vs. $10,000 foes on grass last time out, should snap back in this company and generally gets at least a piece of it. Temple Mount switches to A. Gallardo and stretches out after a series of modest sprint races. Against this sluggish group he’s likely to be in the first flight throughout – maybe even in front – so at 6-1 on the morning line he’s worth including as well.
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RACE 2: Post 1:30 ET. Grade: C
Use: 2-Just Shoot Already; 4-Happy Guy; 7-Wowza Man
Forecast: Another weak race, this one for maiden $10,000 older horses at seven furlongs. Just Shoot Already has burned money as the favorite in three of his last four starts so he’s clearly not one to trust but he could easily get loose on the lead against this group and maybe get brave in the process. He’s seems the likely top choice but without offering any value at 2-1 on the morning line. Happy Guy, second in the same race Just Shoot Already just finished eighth in, deserves attention based on that effort and should appreciate today’s extra half-furlong. His jockey is 1-for-66 this year, so take that into consideration. Wowza Man returns to a sprint and drops to his lowest level ever. He hasn’t gotten close in three previous main track outings but all three were contested over wet tracks so maybe on dry land he’ll improve. The barn wins races, so there’s that.
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RACE 3: Post 2:00 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Analyzeyourvision; 2-Lastfortinofamily
Forecast: The main contention is drawn inside in this maiden $16,000 nine furlong turf affair. Analyzeyourvision is progressing with experience, lands the good rail and should be on or near the lead throughout. He makes a negative jockey switch but W. Garcia has won some races for this barn so we’ll accept it. In a race that projects to be slow early, the K. O’Connell-trained gelding should have every chance to step forward again in his third start off a layoff and just his fifth overall. Lastfortinofamily has numbers that make him reasonably competitive and should draft into a comfortable second flight, stalking position. However, his jockey is 1-for-41 at the meeting.
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RACE 4: Post 2:30 ET. Grade: B+
Single: Hopeful Growth
Forecast: Hopeful Growth should be a fairly short price in this first-level allowance seven furlong sprint for 3-year-old fillies. A winner of her debut last summer at Monmouth Park but then stopped on, the daughter of Tapiture finished a strong runner-up in her comeback in March at Gulfstream Park while four clear of the rest and vans north for easy pickings while picking up top jockey A. Gallardo. She’s not a standout on speed figures but has far more room for improvement then the others and seems certain to produce a forward move, so at 9/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower, she’s a logical short price rolling exotic single
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RACE 5: Post 3:00 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Peaceful Feeling; 5-Stormy D; 7-Fashion’s Star; 8-Flighty Almighty
Forecast: Here’s a challenging entry-level allowance turf miler for fillies and mares that includes two European imports form top barns making their U. S debuts. We’ll use both as part of a spread in our rolling exotics, but top billing goes to the come-backing Peaceful Feeling, away for almost a year but with form that is good enough to win assuming she returns as well as she left. The daughter of War Front has been working well enough at Keeneland to be fit and ready for new trainer I. Correas, and from the rail she has the option of inheriting the role as the controlling speed or drafting into an equally ideal ground-saving stalking position. She’s won off a layoff in the past and is a solid fit on speed figures. Stormy D, never off the board in five career outings over the local lawn and a two-time winner in restricted claiming company, shortens considerably in trip and projects to be well off the pace during the early stages and then make her presence felt in the final furlong. She’s three-for-five in her career at this distance and should fire a big shot after a five week freshening. Fashion’s Star, a daughter of See the Stars, won her debut as a two-year-old in England in pleasing fashion but then was gone for six months and returned in a salty affair at Ascot last May and was never a factor. This time she’s coming back off a year layoff but for a barn that has been sensational with these Payson Park shippers, having won seven of 16 this meeting with four others hitting the board. The work tab for Shug is okay and this first-time Lasix user picks up A. Gallardo. Flighty Almighty another vanning up from Payson Park, has just moderate English form and her only career win was accomplished on the all-weather. She’s from the C. Clement barn and is another getting Lasix for the first time, so will use her somewhere on the ticket.
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RACE 6: Post 3:30 ET. Grade: C+
Single: 5-American River
Forecast: This restricted (nw-3) $8,000 middle distance main track claimer is inscrutable. Six of the eleven entrants exit the same race, with Circle Away, who was 28-1, finishing the best of the lot when second. We’ll toss them all out and take a stab (and that’s all it is) with the Gulfstream Park shipper, American River, a Venezuelan-bred gelding with numbers that fit and stretching out to two-turns for the first time since being imported from South America a couple of years back. His form looks bleak but at least he’s been facing better company and hails from a capable outfit, so at 8-1 on the morning line, he’s at least modestly intriguing.
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RACE 7: Post 4:00 ET. Grade: B
Use: 6-Dynaform; 7-Violator
Forecast: Dynaform just won a similar $20,000 claimer over this course and distance in late March and today picks up top rider A. Gallardo, so if he can turn in two alike there should be no reason why the M. Stidham-trained gelding can’t score right back. A winner of three of six while employing a good stalking style, he’s from a 28% barn that runs them where they belong. We’ll also include in our rolling exotics at 8-1 on the morning line Violator, badly overmatched vs. allowance foes last time out but a respectable fourth behind Dynaform two runs back. He’s most likely to settle into a good stalking position in a race that won’t be fast early and then have his chance from the quarter pole home.
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RACE 8: Post 4:30 ET. Grade: B
Use: 8-U S Army Corps; 9-Big Dreaming
Forecast: U S Army Corps missed by a head as the 8/5 favorite in a similar maiden affair over this course and distance last month and earned a big figure in the process, so not much more should be needed to earn his diploma at what likely will be a very short price. The son of War Front was making his first start since November, and Shug’s second-off-layoff runners usually produce a forward move, so this colt will be hard to beat. Big Dreaming, a colt by Declaration of War from Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Dreaming of Anna, finally makes it to the post and represents a reasonable threat to the favorite based on pedigree, connections, and a work tab that indicates decent ability, at the very least. He was entered and scratched here April 18 in an off-the-turf affair and four days later turned in a bullet gate work, so he’s clearly okay and more than ready to run. Earlier this year, the homebred 3-year-old turned in a series of sharp drills at Fair Grounds, so we’re really interested to see if he can give the favorite some competition, and we suspect he can. Both should be used in rolling exotic play.
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