Jeff Siegel’s Top-20 Triple Crown Rankings With Theoretical Weight Assignments
(Updated Wednesday, April 17, 2019)
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1 – Omaha Beach (R. Mandella) – 126 lbs.
Lifetime record: 7-3-3-1 – ($1,121,800). Derby points: 137.5 (rank: 2nd)
Pedigree: War Front-Charming, by Seeking the Gold
Most recent race: April 12, Oaklawn Park, Arkansas Derby-G1, finished first
Pointing for: Kentucky Derby-G1, Churchill Downs, May 4
Latest workout: none since raced
The Skinny: Moved to the head of the class with his third straight win in the 9F Arkansas Derby-G1 (by a length from Improbable), showing tactical speed to be within range to the turn, gaining control without being asked, and then fighting off his main rival to win with something left while earning a career top 101 Beyer figure; previously had run to his exceptional workouts and his highly-impressive wet-track maiden win when handing Eclipse Award winning 2-year-old Game Winner his first defeat in the Rebel S.-G2 (2nd div.), utilizing superior tactical speed to secure a perfect pace-stalking trip and then reaching back for extra when severely challenged close home to register a head-bobbing win that was .07 seconds faster than the other division; although we initially suspected he might be more of a one-turn miler than a classic prospect, the son of War Front has since given every indication he’ll handle the Derby’s 10-furlong trip; received a boost when regular jockey Mike Smith chose him for the Kentucky Derby-G1 over the Bob Baffert-trained Santa Anita Derby-G1 winner Roadster.
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2 – Roadster (B. Baffert) – 125 lbs.
Lifetime record: 4-3-0-1 ($634,200). Derby points: 100 (rank: 5th)
Pedigree: Quality Road-Ghost Dancing, by Silver Ghost
Most recent race: April 6, 2019, Santa Anita, Santa Anita Derby-G2, finished first
Pointing for: Kentucky Derby-G1, Churchill Downs, May 4, 2019
Latest workout: none since raced
The Skinny: Perfect in two starts as a 3-year-old, winning a first-level allowance two-turn miler impressively in early March and then producing the last run to wear down Game Winner in the Santa Anita Derby-G1 by half-length while earning a career top 98 Beyer speed figure; had been one of Baffert’s most highly-regarded juveniles in the summer of 2018 and didn’t disappoint in his first two career outings, a facile maiden score followed by a third-place finish in the Del Mar Futurity-G1 but had to be stopped on after undergoing throat surgery and missed the remainder of the year; can lay close to the pace or rally from well off of it; a strong case can be made that he owns more upside than his Baffert-trained stable mates Game Winner and Improbable; will be ridden by Florent Geroux in the Kentucky Derby-G1 after regular jockey Mike Smith opted for Omaha Beach.
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3 – Maximum Security (J. Servis) – 125 lbs.
Lifetime record: 4-4-0-0 ($66,600). Derby points: 100 (rank: 7th)
Pedigree: New Year’s Day – Lil Indy, by Anasheed
Most recent race: March 30, 2019, Gulfstream Park, Florida Derby-G1, finished first.
Pointing for: Kentucky Derby-G1, Churchill Downs, May 4
Latest workout: April 13, Palm Meadows, 4f, :54.4b
The Skinny: Versatile, genuine, and is undefeated in four starts, most recently stretching out to two-turns for the first time when winning the Florida Derby-G1 in gate-to-wire fashion while enjoying a soft pace-setting journey that resulted in a strong 101 Beyer speed figure; had debuted in late December in a maiden $16,000 claimer (won by 9 ¾ lengths) and then was protected in two starter allowance races, winning both very impressively including an 18 ¼ romp in his second-to-last outing; has his physical issues (only five recorded workouts since the first of the year) and had been entered and withdrawn as a “racing or stallion prospect” in the Keeneland January Mixed sale; clearly a high quality colt that must be trained with caution; will be joined in the Kentucky Derby field by his Gary and Mary West-owned stablemate Game Winner; primarily a pace-presser but also has won while employing a second flight, stalking style; question marks remain to his health and longevity but so far he has met all challenges with ease and dominance.
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4 – Improbable (B. Baffert) – 124 lbs.
Lifetime record: 5-3-2-0- ($619,520). Derby points: 65 (rank:11th)
Pedigree: City Zip-Rare Event, by A. P. Indy
Most recent race: April 13, 2019, Oaklawn Park, Arkansas Derby-G1, finished second.
Pointing for: Kentucky Derby-G1, Churchill Downs, May 4
Latest workout: none since raced
The Skinny: A flashy, lengthy, impressive individual, the son of City Zip was victorious in his first three career starts, capping off a superb juvenile campaign with a dominant win in the 8.5F Los Alamitos Futurity-G1, but has failed to seal the deal in two subsequent starts, a narrow second to improving Long Range Toddy in the first division of the Rebel S.-G2, and then adding blinkers but going down by a length to Omaha Beach in the 9F Arkansas Derby-G1 over a sloppy surface (every chance from the 3/8ths pole to the wire but was simply second best while well clear of the rest); will be ridden in the Kentucky Derby-G1 by Irad Ortiz after brother Jose Ortiz, who had been aboard in the Arkansas Derby, opted for Tacitus; should stay the Derby trip and can be expected to produce a career top effort for a trainer that knows how to have his 3-year-olds peak at the right time; notwithstanding his two recent defeats as the favorite he’s certainly not one to underestimate in Kentucky.
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5 – Game Winner (B. Baffert) – 124 lbs.
Lifetime record: 6-4-2-0- ($1,646,000). Derby points: 85 (8th)
Pedigree: Candy Ride-Indyan Giving, by A. P. Indy
Most recent race: April 6, 2019, Santa Anita, Santa Anita Derby-G2, finished second
Pointing for: Kentucky Derby-G1, May 4, Churchill Downs
Latest workout: none since raced
The Skinny: The champion 2-year-old of 2018 has finished second in both of his starts this year, beginning his sophomore campaign in the Rebel S.-G2 (2nd div.) in March when losing a head-bob to Omaha Beach in the slightly faster (by .07 seconds) split of the race; and then going down by a half-length to stablemate Roadster in the Santa Anita Derby-G1 the following month when hardly getting the best of trips after racing wide throughout and arguably moving too soon into the teeth of the hottest part of the race; as a son of Candy Ride from a mare by A. P. Indy, he’s supposed to improve with distance and maturity but while he remains genuine and consistent there’s a distinct possibility that he is closer to his ceiling than some of the others in his division; won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile-G1 at Churchill Downs last November, proving that he can handle the surface and the surroundings; remains a major contender for the first of the spring classics.
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6 – Tacitus (W. Mott) – 123 lbs.
Lifetime record: 4-3-0-0 ($253,000). Derby points: 150 (1st)
Pedigree: Tapit-Close Hatches, by First Defence
Most recent race: April 6, 2019, Wood Memorial S.-G2, Aqueduct, finished first
Pointing for: Kentucky Derby-G1, Churchill Downs, May 4, 2019
Latest workout: none since raced
The skinny: The first foal from Eclipse Award winner Close Hatches, the lightly-raced Juddmonte Farm homebred son of Tapit continues to progress with experience and enters the Derby following a pleasing 1 ¼ length victory (from Tax) in the 9F Wood Memorial S.-G2, overcoming early trouble to settle within striking range and then gradually exerting his superiority in the final furlong to register a career top 97 Beyer speed figure; previously won the Tampa Bay Derby-G2 in his sophomore debut, finding room from the quarter pole home to be up in time by 1 ¼ lengths from Outshine; grinding, one-paced type will enjoy the Derby trip and farther; based on his pedigree and connections continued improvement can be expected.
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7 – By My Standards (W. Calhoun) – 121 lbs.
Lifetime record: 5-2-2-1 ($653,710). Derby points: 100 (6th)
Pedigree: Goldencents-A Jealous Woman, by Muqtarib
Most recent race: March 23, 2019, Fair Grounds, Louisiana Derby-G2, finished first
Pointing for: Kentucky Derby, Churchill Downs, May 4, 2019
Latest workout: April 11, Churchill Downs, 4f, :48.4b
The Skinny: Vastly improved in last pair, breaking his maiden in sharp style two runs back in his fourth career start and then stepping forward again with an authoritative score in the 9F Louisiana Derby-G1 (by ¾ length from Spinoff) while earning a career top 97 Beyer speed figure; employs an effective stalking style and displayed a good turn of foot in each of his last two outings to indicate he’ll run farther than his middle-distance pedigree might suggest; currently training at Churchill Down; probably will remain somewhat under the radar in the weeks leading up to the Derby but isn’t one to take lightly.
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8 – Vekoma (G. Weaver) – 121 lbs.
Lifetime record: 4-3-0-1- ($788,850). Derby points: 110
Pedigree: Candy Ride-Mona de Momma, by Speightstown
Most recent race: April 6, 2019, Blue Grass S.-G2, finished first
Pointing for: Kentucky Derby-G1, Churchill Downs, May 4, 2019
Latest workout: none since raced
The Skinny: Suffered his first career defeat in March when finishing third in the 8.5F Fountain of Youth S.-G2 (by 2 ¾ lengths to Code of Honor) while clearly in need of the race and then moved forward as expected to win the 9F Blue Grass S.-G2 the following month (by 3 ½ lengths from Win Win Win) while racing a bit erratically in the final furlong but taking full advantage of a comfortable pace-stalking trip; earned a 94 Beyer figure, which will need to be improved upon for success in Kentucky; as a son of Candy Ride he has a right to stay a classic distance and continue to improve with maturity; a poor mover (exaggerated windmill action) but is unquestionably is a colt of some quality.
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9 – Instagrand (J. Hollendorfer) – 121 lbs.
Lifetime record: 4-2-0-2- ($300,000). Derby points: 30 (rank: 26th)
Pedigree: Into Mischief-Assets of War, by Lawyer Ron
Most recent race: April 6, 2019, Santa Anita, Santa Anita Derby-G1, finished first
Pointing for: Kentucky Derby-G1, Churchill Downs, May 4
Latest workout: April 16, Los Alamitos, 4f, :49.3h
The Skinny: Set the pace, was collared on the turn, but kept on bravely to wind up an excellent third (beaten 2 ¼ lengths to Roadster) in the 9F Santa Anita Derby-G1 in his first try around two-turns; however with only 30 Kentucky Derby points he’s likely to be on the outside looking in and be forced to await the Preakness-G1; previously had suffered his first career defeat in his 2019 debut when third (by 1 ½ lengths by Haikal), in the 8F Gotham S.-G3, having every chance with an ideal pace-stalking trip but losing his punch in the final furlong while feeling the effects of rust; was as talented a two-year-old as we saw in 2018 and has plenty of room to return to that form, though a classic distance might be pushing his limit.
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10 – Code of Honor (C. McGaughey III) – 120 lbs.
Lifetime record: 5-2-1-1 ($478.820). Derby Points: 74 (rank: 9th)
Pedigree: Noble Mission-Reunited, by Dixie Union
Most recent race: March 30, 2019, Gulfstream Park, Florida Derby-G1, finished third
Pointing for: Kentucky Derby-G1, Churchill Downs, May 4
Latest workout: April 12, Keeneland, 4f, :49b
The Skinny: Regained his best form with a 3/4 length victory over Bourbon War in the 8.5F Fountain of Youth S.-G2 at Gulfstream Park in early March but could only manage a distant third (beaten 6 ¾ lengths) to front-running Maximum Security in the subsequent 9F Florida Derby-G1 while finishing with some interest but without mishap; had stamped himself as one of the most promising juveniles of 2018 when a strong second in the Champagne S.-G1 after stumbling badly at the start; would have been a major contender for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile S.-G1 had he not been forced to miss the race after spiking a fever; should have no issue with the Derby’s 10-furlong trip but is a one-paced type and will need plenty of help up front to have his best chance.
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11 – Tax (D. Gargan) – 120 lbs.
Lifetime record: 5-2-2-1 ($326,300). Derby points: 52 (rank: 14th)
Pedigree: Arch-Toll, by Giant’s Causeway
Most recent race: April 6, 2019, Aqueduct, Wood Memorial S.-G2, finished second.
Pointing for: Kentucky Derby-G1, Churchill Downs, May 4
Latest workout: None since raced
The Skinny: His first two career starts came in maiden claimers (he was taken for $50,000 after a win at Keeneland) and has done extremely since for his present connections, most recently finishing a game second (by 1 ¼ lengths to Tacitus) in the 9F Wood Memorial S.-G2 after briefly hitting the front in mid-stretch; previously captured the 8F Withers S.-G3 in brave fashion in a three-horse photo while earning a career top 96 Beyer speed figure; bred on both sides to run as far he’ll be asked to; has enough tactical speed to secure a pace-stalking or second flight position; his Wood Memorial effort came following a two month layoff so there’s hope that he can step forward in Kentucky and get at least a piece of it.
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12 – Spinoff (T. Pletcher) – 119 lbs.
Lifetime record: 4-2-1-1 ($260,000). Derby points: 40 (rank: 19th)
Pedigree: Hard Spun-Zaftig, by Gone West
Most recent race: March 23, 2019, Fair Grounds, Louisiana Derby-G3, finished second
Pointing for: Kentucky Derby, Churchill Downs, May 4, 2019
Latest workout: April 12, Palm Beach Downs, 5f, 1:01.2b
The Skinny: Never off the board in four career starts and continued his rapidly improving pattern when finishing a strong second (five lengths clear of the rest) by ¾ length to By My Standards in the 9F Louisiana Derby-G2 after gaining a brief lead in mid-stretch; earned a career top Beyer speed figure in the process while once again producing a forward move just as he’s done in each of his four career starts; has excellent tactical speed that keeps him trouble-free; talented colt has accumulated sufficient points to be guaranteed a spot in the Kentucky Derby but is relatively inexperienced and will be entering the race off a six-week layoff.
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13 – Win Win Win (M. Trombetta) – 118 lbs.
Lifetime record: 6-3-2-1- ($367,300). Derby points: 50 (rank: 16th)
Pedigree: Hat Trick-Miss Smarty Pants, by Smarty Jones
Most recent race: April 6, 2019, 10th race, Keeneland, Blue Grass S.-G2, finished second.
Pointing for: Kentucky Derby-G1, Churchill Downs, May 4
Latest workout: none since raced
The Skinny: Produced a highly-impressive seven-length win (from last to first) in the 7F Pasco Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs with a powerful speed figure in his seasonable debut but his lack of tactical speed caught up to him in two subsequent starts, the Tampa Bay Derby-G2 (forced wide, loomed a threat, but lacked a solid closing kick when third to Tacitus) and then most recently in the 9F Blue Grass S.-G2 after being sluggish from the gate, encountering, traffic troubles on turn, getting fanned wide into the lane and then finishing willing to be second (by 3 ½ lengths to Vekoma); pedigree suggests he’ll stay a classic distance but as a deep closer he’ll always be susceptible to an unfavorable race shape and traffic problems along the way.
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14 – Long Range Toddy (S. Asmussen) – 118 lbs.
Lifetime record: 6-4-1-0- ($854,459). Derby points: 53.5 (rank: 13th)
Pedigree: Take Charge Indy-Pleasant Song, by Unbridled’s Song
Most recent race: April 13, 2019, Oaklawn Park, Arkansas Derby-G1, finished sixth
Pointing for: Kentucky Derby-G1, Churchill Downs, May 4
Latest workout: none since raced
The Skinny: Did not take a backward move in the Beyer speed figure department in his first eight career starts that included a legitimate neck victory over previously undefeated Improbable in the first division of the 8.5F Rebel S.-G2, but was never going particularly well while perhaps victimized by a poor outside post and a sloppy track that he may not have cared for when sixth, beaten nearly 15 lengths, behind Omaha Beach in the Arkansas Derby-G1; bred to stay a classic distance and is rated 13th on points so he’s guaranteed an opportunity in the Kentucky Derby-G1; will have every chance to prove his most recent start isn’t indicative of his true (fast track) ability but is certain to leave as one of the long shots.
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15 – Owendale (B. Cox) – 118 lbs.
Lifetime record: 8-3-1-1 ($187,225) Derby points: 20 (rank: 29th)
Pedigree: Into Mischief-Aspen Light, by Bernardini
Most recent race: April 13, 2019, Keeneland, Lexington S.-G3, finished first
Pointing for: Preakness S/-G1, Pimlico, May 20
Latest workout: none since raced
The Skinny: Improved dramatically with a legitimate win in the Lexington S.-G3 (by 1 ¾ lengths from Anothetwistafate), earning a strong, career-best Beyer speed figure (98) despite being forced to race wide throughout; stamped himself as clearly better than several intended Kentucky Derby-G1 starters but is ranked 29th on the points list and has practically no chance to make the lineup; likely to be pointed for the Preakness S.-G2 in mid-May and could make some noise with continued improvement; most effective when taken back and allowed to produce on late run.
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16 – War of Will (M. Casse) – 118 lbs.
Lifetime record: 8-3-1-1 ($501,569). Derby points: 60 (rank: 12th)
Pedigree: War Front-Visions of Clarity, by Sadler’s Wells
Most recent race: March 23, 2019, Fair Grounds, Louisiana Derby-G2, finished ninth
Pointing for: Kentucky Derby-G1, Churchill Downs, May 4
Latest workout: April 13, Keeneland, 5f, :59bg
The Skinny: Was sent to the post as the 4/5 favorite in the Louisiana Derby-G2 on the basis of two previous victories at Fair Grounds, the Le Comte S.-G3 in January (by four lengths from Hog Creek Hustle) and then the Risen Star-G2 (by 2 ¼ lengths from Country House) but was far below that form when ninth of 11 (beaten 12 lengths to By My Standards), never getting untracked after having his hind legs give way for several strides leaving the gate; was off behind cooling out but then reportedly was moving soundly the following day; has worked well since, including a solo five furlong gate drill in 59 seconds at Keeneland April 13; guaranteed a start in the Kentucky Derby-G1 (ranked 13th on points) and connections are optimistic that he’ll be physically up to it; most recent start is best ignored, however, the son of War Front isn’t particular fast on speed figures and will need considerable improvement to be any kind of factor in Kentucky.
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17 – Anothertwistafate (B. Wright) – 117 lbs.
Lifetime record: 6-3-2-0- ($303,505). Derby points: 38 (ranked: 23rd)
Pedigree: Scat Daddy-Imprecation, by First Defence
Most recent race: April 13, 2019, Keeneland, Lexington S.-G3, finished second.
Pointing for: Kentucky Derby-G1, Churchill Downs, May 4
Latest workout: none since raced
The Skinny: Runner-up as the favorite in each of his last two starts, the Sunland Derby-G3 (by a neck to Cutting Humor) in March and then most recently in the Lexington S.-G3 (by 1 ¾ lengths to Owendale), encountering traffic trouble at various stages but then failing to quicken while appearing one-paced in the final furlong; previously had been very impressive at Golden Gate while racing on Tapeta, winning three straight including the El Camino Real Derby; ranked 23rd on points so there needs to be a few defections in order for him to earn a start in the Kentucky Derby-G1; is assured a position in the Preakness S.-G1 due to his El Camino Real win so his connections may choose to wait under any circumstance.
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18 – Plus Que Parfait (B. Walsh) – 117 lbs.
Lifetime record: 7-2-1-2- ($1,590, 400). Derby points: 104 (ranked: 4th)
Pedigree: Point of Entry-Belvedera, by Awesome Again
Most recent race: March 30, 2019, UAE Derby-G2, Meydan, finished first.
Pointing for: Kentucky Derby-G1, Churchill Downs, May 4
Latest workout: none since last raced
The Skinny: Guaranteed a spot in the Kentucky Derby field by virtue of his surprise victory in the 9.5F UAE Derby-G2 (by ¾ length from Gray Magician) in Meydan that actually earned a decent Racing Post Rating (110); bred to improve as the distances increase and performed well over a sloppy Churchill Downs main track when second to Signalman in the Kentucky Jockey Club S.-G2 last November; also had defeated subsequent Holy Bull S.-G3 winner Harvey Wallbanger and Sunland Derby-G3 winner Cutting Humor in a maiden race last fall at Keeneland; looks fairly decent on paper if you can ignore two dull Fair Grounds performances earlier this year.
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19 – Cutting Humor (T. Pletcher) – 116 lbs.
Lifetime record: 6-2-2-1 ($516,967. Derby points: 50 (rank: 15th)
Pedigree: First Samurai-Pun, by Pulpit
Most recent race: March 24, 2019, Sunland Park, Sunland Derby-G3, finished first
Pointing for: Kentucky Derby-G1, Churchill Downs, May 4
Latest workout: April 12, Palm Meadows, 4f, :47.4b
The skinny: Produced a career top effort when enjoying a perfect, in-the-clear stalking trip to hold off Anothertwistafate by a neck in Sunland Derby-G3; hitting the front entering the lane and then finding extra in the final furlong to win gamely; previously had been unplaced in the Southwest S.-G3 as the favorite when resenting the kickback and then lugging out badly into the clubhouse turn; may be the type that needs clearing sailing outside to perform his best and therefore may not be one to trust; has enough points to qualify for a starting berth in the Kentucky Derby-G1 but is likely to be a substantial longshot.
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20 – Haikal (K. McLaughlin) – 116 lbs.
Lifetime record: 5-3-1-1 ($298,900). Derby points: 70 (10th)
Pedigree: Daaher – Sablah, by Distorted Humor
Most recent race: April 6, 2019, Aqueduct, Wood Memorial S.-G2, finished third
Pointing for: Kentucky Derby-G1, Churchill Downs, May 4
Latest workout: none since raced
The Skinny: Produced an insufficient late bid when a non-threatening third (by four lengths to Tacitus) despite being race-shape aided in the Wood Memorial S.-G2 in his first try around two turns; previously had reeled off three consecutive one-turn victories including the 8F Gotham S.-G3 (benefitted greatly from a fast-early, slow-late race flow); by Cigar Mile-G1 winner Daaher from the dam of the brilliantly-fast but ill-fated Takaful should theoretically be most effective sprinting lacks tactical speed and may eventually prove most comfortable over a distance of ground; has enough Derby points to be assured a slot in the Kentucky Derby-G1 starting gate but he’ll need to step forward in a major way to have a chance to even hit the board.
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21 – Intrepid Heart (T. Pletcher) – 115 lbs.
Lifetime record: 2-2-0-0 ($104,400,700) – Derby points: 0
Pedigree: Tapit-Flaming Heart, by Touch Gold
Most recent race: April 5, 2019, Keeneland, allowance, finished first
Pointing for: Preakness S.-G1, Pimlico, May 18
Latest workout: none since raced
The Skinny: $750,000 OBS April sale; half-brother to graded stakes winners Commissioner and Laugh Track; undefeated in two starts, a two-turn mile maiden win in February at Oaklawn Park by 7 ¾ lengths) and an 8.5 furlong allowance race in April at Keeneland (by ½ length), most recent victory earned a strong 91 Beyer speed figure; displayed good tactical speed in both wins and is bred to handle a classic distance; gives every indication that he’ll be an important member of 2019 sophomore class in due time; one to keep a close eye on.
*
22 – Bodexpress (G. Delgado) – 115 lbs.
Lifetime record: 5-M-3-0 ($208,700) – Derby points: 40 (rank: 21st)
Pedigree: Bodemeister – Pied a Terre, by City Zip
Most recent race: March 30, 2019, Gulfstream Park, Florida Derby-G1, finished second.
Pointing for: Kentucky Derby-G1, Churchill Downs, May 4, 2019
Latest workout: April 11, Gulfstream Park West, 5f, 1:01.1b)
The Skinny: Still a maiden after five starts but is on the cusp of the Kentucky Derby-G1 field after accumulating 40 points with a runner-up effort (by 3 ½ lengths to Maximum Security) in the Florida Derby-G1, displaying good tactical speed to stalk the front-running winner throughout and then staying on nicely while outrunning his 71-1 closing odds; was never a real concern to the winner but did manage to finish 3 ¼ lengths clear of the third place Code of Honor while being assigned a career best 96 Beyer speed figure; projects to be forwardly placed again should he qualify for a spot in Kentucky but is unlikely to be as effective at 10 furlongs despite his sire (Bodemeister) already having produced a Derby winner (Always Dreaming) after himself finishing second in the race.
*
23 – Country House (W. Mott) – 115 lbs.
Lifetime record: 6-1-2-1- ($260,175). Derby points: 50 (rank: 17th)
Pedigree: Lookin At Lucky-Quake Lake, by War Chant
Most recent race: April 13, 2019, Oaklawn Park, Arkansas Derby-G1, finished third
Pointing for: Kentucky Derby-G1, Churchill Downs, May 4
Latest workout: none since raced
The Skinny: Has managed to hit the board in two graded stakes races during the winter/spring season and thus has earned enough points to be guaranteed a spot in the Kentucky Derby-G1 lineup, most recently finished a non-threatening third (beaten 6 ¾ lengths to Omaha Beach) in the Arkansas Derby-G1; has a deep closing style that should allow him to handle the Derby’s 10-furlong trip; however, he’s still far short in the Beyer speed figure department to be any kind of threat in Kentucky; style suggests he needs an extreme race-shape to promote his lack of tactical speed; still eligible to non-winners of two.
*
24 – Gray Magician (P. Miller) – 114 lbs.
Lifetime record: 8-1-3-2- ($584,140). Derby points: 41 (rank: 18th)
Pedigree: Graydar-Burg Berg, by Johannesburg
Most recent race: March 30, 2019, UAE Derby-G2, Meydan, finished second
Pointing for: Kentucky Derby-G1, Churchill Downs, May 4, 2019
Latest workout: none since last raced
The Skinny: Left his previous modest form behind with a good runner-up effort (by ¾ length to Plus Que Parfait) in UAE Derby-G2 in Meydan in late March; looming a threat a furlong out and keeping on well to the wire while earning 40 Kentucky Derby points, good enough to insure a spot in the starting gate; previously had finished a non-threatening second in the listed one-turn mile Miracle Wood S. at Laurel; had done little before that to indicate he was even remotely Derby material or that he would be suited by a classic distance; despite his vastly improved effort in Dubai seems certain to be among the longest of longshots at Churchill Downs.
*
25 – Master Fencer (K. Sunoda) – 112 lbs.
Lifetime record: 6-2-2-0 ($195,460). Derby points: RTKD
Pedigree: Just a Way-Sexy Samurai, by Deputy Minister
Most recent race: March 31, 2019, Nakayama, Fukuryu S., finished second
Pointing for: Kentucky Derby-G1, Churchill Downs, May 4
Latest workout: none since raced
The Skinny: Qualified through Japanese exemption; non-stakes winner has won been successful twice over nine furlongs so Derby trip should be within his range but appears out of his element based on form.
