Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Triple Crown Tracker – Top 25 Rankings With Theoretical Weight Assignments

Jeff Siegel’s Top 25 Triple Crown Rankings

Theoretical Weight Assignments (high weight 126 lbs.)

(Updated Monday, Feb. 19, 2018)

 

1 – Good Magic (C. Brown) 126 lbs.

Record: 3-1-2-0 ($1,216,600) – Derby points: 24

Pedigree: Curlin – Glinda the Good, by Hard Spun

Most recent race: Nov. 4, 2017, Del Mar, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile-G1, finished first.

Latest workout: Feb. 17, 2018, Palm Meadows, 5f-1:00.2b (see Feb. 17 workout)

Likely next start: 8.5F Fountain of Youth S.-G2 (March 3)

The skinny: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile victory was superb and earned him an Eclipse Award; pedigree/running style suggests he’ll be even more effective as distances increase; breezing extremely well for seasonal bow in the Fountain of Youth S.-G2 March 3; unlimited potential.

 

2 – Bolt d’Oro (M. Ruis) 125 lbs.

Record: 4-3-0-1 ($576,000) – Derby points: 14

Pedigree: Medaglia d’Oro -Globe Trot, by A. P. Indy

Most recent race: Nov. 4, 2017, Del Mar, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile-G1, finished third.

Latest workout: Feb. 14, 2018, Santa Anita, 5f-:59.2h (see Feb. 14 workout)

Likely next start: 8.5f San Felipe S.-G2 (March 10)

The skinny: Missed time in January due to a pulled muscle in his back but has returned to an aggressive six-day work pattern; San Felipe S.-G2 (March 10) targeted for 2018 bow; will be ridden by Javier Castellano, who replaces Corey Nakatani per trainer decision.

 

3 – McKinzie (B. Baffert) 124 lbs.

Record: 3-2-0-1 ($270,000) – Derby points: 20

Pedigree: Street Sense – Runway Model, by Petionville

Most Recent Race: Jan. 6, 2018, Santa Anita, Sham S.-G3, finished first

Latest Workout: Feb 17, 2018, Santa Anita, 6f-1:12.3h

Likely next start: 8.5f San Felipe S.-G2 (March 10)

The skinny: Removed blinkers, relaxed nicely and then kicked away impressively to win 8F Sham S.-G3 with authority; likely to make next start in San Felipe S.-G2 March 10; trainer’s top Derby prospect at this stage and continues to impress in the morning (see Feb. 10 workout).

 

4 – Solomini (B. Baffert) 123 lbs.

Record: 4-1-2-1 ($472,000) – Derby points: 14

Pedigree: Curlin – Surf Song, by Storm Cat

Most recent race: Dec. 9, 2017, Los Alamitos Cash Call Futurity-G1, finished first (moved back to 3rd via DQ).

Latest workout: Feb. 17, 2018, Santa Anita, 5f-:59.2h (see Feb. 17 workout)

Likely next start: 8.5f Rebel S.-G2 (March 17) or 8.5f San Felipe S.-G2 (March 10).

The skinny: Excellent resume that doesn’t include well-earned first place finish in Los Alamitos Futurity-G1 (was disqualified for causing interference in mid-stretch but was clearly best); failed to record a workout in January due to a fever but has resumed training on a regular schedule this month and is eligible to improve both physically and mentally.

 

5 – Audible (T. Pletcher) 122 lbs.

Record: 4-3-0-1 ($287,700) – Derby points: 10

Pedigree: Into Mischief – Blue Devil Bell, by Gilded Time

Most recent race: Feb. 3, 2018, Gulfstream Park, Holy Bull S.-G2, finished first.

Latest workout: none since raced.

Likely next start: 9f Florida Derby-G1 (March 31).

The skinny: Confirmed his promising New York winter form with stunning 5 ½ length romp in the Holy Bull S.-G2 in his first try around two-turns; has miler’s pedigree but looks quite capable of handling further; probably won’t reappear until Florida Derby-G1 March 31.

 

6 – Mendelssohn (A. O’Brien) 121 lbs.

Record: 5-2-0-1 ($706,652) – Derby points: 0

Pedigree: Scat Daddy – Leslie’s Lady, by Tricky Creek

Most recent race: November 3, 2017, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf-G1, finished first

Latest workout: none since raced.

Likely next start: 8f Kentucky Derby Conditions Stakes (Kempton, March 1) or 8f Patton Stakes (Dundalk, March 2).

The skinny: BC Juvenile Turf-G1 winner has yet to try dirt but is a half-brother to multi-champion Beholder; British-based colt has the Derby on his agenda according to trainer Aidan O’Brien and has a couple all-weather races under consideration in early March in England that will launch in 2018 campaign.

 

7 – Mangnum Moon (T. Pletcher) 119 lbs.

Record: 2-2-0-0 ($37,800) – Derby points: 0

Pedigree: Malibu Moon – Dazzling Song, by Unbridled’s Song

Most recent race: Feb. 15, 2018, Tampa Bay Downs, allowance, finished first.

Latest workout: none since raced

Likely next start: to be determined

The skinny: Unbeaten in two starts, a facile 6f maiden victory at Gulfstream Park (by 4 ½ lengths) in what has proven to be a productive race and then a comfortable two-length allowance victory at Tampa Bay Downs (never asked, visually very impressive); unraced dam traces to high quality family that leans toward speed/middle distance; untested so far but will get soon his chance to prove he belongs with the best in his division; top prospect has the potential to be this year’s Always Dreaming for Pletcher.

 

8 – Justify (B. Baffert) 118 lbs.

Record: 1-1-0-0 ($32,400) – Derby points: 0

Pedigree: Scat Daddy – Stage Magic, by Ghostzapper

Most recent race: Feb. 18, 2018, maiden, finished first

Latest workout: none since raced

Likely next start: to be determined

The skinny: Was an open secret in 7f debut at Santa Anita in mid-February and cruised to a 9 ½ length victory vs. modest competition while earning a sensational speed figure; pedigree suggests added distance shouldn’t be a problem; very late to the party (see Apollo rule) but connections believe there’s enough time to get him ready for the spring classics; yet-to-be specified graded stakes event must be next on the agenda; high class prospect, for sure.

 

9 – Tenfold (S. Asmussen) – 118 lbs.

Record: 1-1-0-0 ($45,000) – Derby points: 0

Pedigree: Curlin – Temptress, by Tapit

Most recent race: Feb. 9, 2018, Oaklawn Park, maiden, finished first.

Latest workout: none since raced

Likely next start: to be determined

The skinny: won his debut two-turning at Oaklawn Park by nearly six lengths in eye-catching fashion in mid-February, establishing the pace without any need of encouragement, switching off midway, and then re-accelerating when turned loose into the lane like a high quality prospect while registering a powerful speed figure; pedigree suggests he’ll run as far as he’s asked to; clearly far behind with regards to development and experience but appears blessed with the necessary talent to eventually compete with the best in his class.

 

10 – Untamed Domain (G. Motion) 118 lbs.

Record: 5-2-1-1 ($345,200) – Derby points: 0

Pedigree: Animal Kingdom – Ciao, by Lear Fan

Most recent race: Feb. 3, 2018, Gulfstream Park, Dania Beach S-G3, finished third.

Latest workout: none since raced.

Likely next start: 9f Tampa Bay Derby-G2 (March 10).

The skinny: Made his 2018 bow in 8f Dania Beach S.-G3 on turf and finished willingly to be a solid third, beaten just under three lengths without being knocked about; seems sure to benefit from the outing and added distance but needs to show he can be effective on dirt; likely will get that chance in his next start, probably the Tampa Bay Derby March. 10.

 

11 – Vino Rosso T. Pletcher) – 117 lbs.

Record: 3-2-0-1 ($68,000) – Derby points: 2

Pedigree: Curlin – Mythical Bride, by Street Cry

Most recent race: Feb. 10, 2018, Tampa Bay Downs, Sam F. Davis S.-G3, finished second.

Latest workout: none since raced.

Likely next start: 9f Tampa Bay Derby (March 10)

The skinny: Won both of his starts as a 2-year-old in promising fashion, a 7f Aqueduct maiden by 7 lengths in November and then an 8f allowance race at Tampa Bay Downs by 2 ¾ lengths the following month; continued to progress when a closing third in the 8.5f Sam F. Davis S.-G3 (by 1 ¼ lengths to front-running Flameway) while doing his best work in the final furlong; pedigree allows for improvement as the distances increase; clearly likes the quirky local surface and should be a major player in the Tampa Bay Derby March 10.

 

12 – Catholic Boy (J. Thomas) 117 lbs.

Record: 5-3-1-0 ($354,000) – Derby earnings: 14

Pedigree: More Than Ready – Song of Bernadette, by Bernardini

Most recent race: Feb. 10, 2018, Tampa Bay Downs, Sam F. Davis S.-G3, finished second.

Latest workout: none since raced.

Likely next start: 9f Florida Derby-G1 (March 31) or 9f Louisiana Derby-G2 (March 24)

The skinny: Disappointing second (beaten half-length) to Flameaway as 3/5 favorite without mishap in Sam F. Davis S.-G3; expected better but below standard performances over quirky Tampa Bay Downs main track often can be forgiven; previously had been quite impressive winning 9f Remsen S.-G2 (race subsequently franked by Avery Island); likely to have one more prep prior to Kentucky Derby but will need to produce significant improvement; if not, a return to grass is a viable long term option.

 

13 – Avery Island (K. McLaughlin) 117 lbs.

Record: 5-3-1-0 ($365,332) – Derby points: 14

Pedigree: Street Sense – Kinda Spicy, by A. P. Indy

Most recent race: Feb. 3, 2018, Aqueduct, Withers S.-G3, finished first.

Latest workout: none since raced.

Likely next start: to be determined.

The skinny: Was a soundly-beaten runner-up as the favorite in 9F Remsen S.-G2 in December at Aqueduct but found an easier task when winning the 9f Withers S.-G3 over that same track and distance upon his return in early February while earning a moderate speed figure; pedigree points to continued development; clearly a genuine sort but will need improvement to be competitive with the best in the division.

 

14 – Free Drop Billy (D. Romans) 117 lbs.

Record: 6-2-3-0 ($428,420) – Derby points: 14

Pedigree: Union Rags – Trensa, by Giant’s Causeway

Most recent race: Feb. 3, 2018, Gulfstream Park, Holy Bull S.-G2, finished second.

Latest workout: Feb. 18, 2018, Gulfstream Park, 4f-:48b

Likely next start: 8.5f Fountain of Youth S.-G2, March 3

The skinny: Had a right to be a short horse when looming a threat and then losing his punch to wind up a respectable second (beaten 5 ½ lengths) to Audible in seasonal bow in Holy Bull S.-G2; likely to be fitter and tougher next time; pedigree says he’ll run all day but so far he has yet to prove he should be ranked in the upper echelon in the division.

 

15 – Bravazo (D. W. Lukas) 117 lbs.

Record: 7-3-1-1 ($426,528) – Derby points: 54

Pedigree: Awesome Again – Tiz o’ Gold, by Cee’s Tizzy

Most recent race: Feb. 17, 2018, Fair Grounds, Risen Star S.-G2, finished first.

Latest workout: none since raced

Likely next start: 9f Louisiana Derby-G2 March 24

The skinny: Improved his 3-year-old record to 2-for-2 with a nose victory over Snappy Sinclair in 8.5F Risen Star S.-G2 in mid-February; previously had won an allowance race at Oaklawn Park in a photo in game style; was Group-1 placed as a 2-year-old (second, Breeders’ Futurity to Free Drop Billy; excellent stalking style and is bred run on and develop with age; yet to prove he can handle top competition in his class but will get that chance soon enough.

 

16 – Flameaway (M. Casse) – 117 lbs.

Record: 7-5-0-0 ($434,834) – Derby points: 10

Pedigree: Scat Daddy – Vulcan Rose, by Fusaichi Pegasus

Most recent race: 8.5f Sam F. Davis S.-G3 (Feb. 10)

Latest workout: none since raced

Likely next start: 9f Tampa Bay Derby-G2 (March 10) or Blue Grass S.-G2 (April 7)

The skinny: Made the pace from favorable inside draw and then bravely fought off heavily-favored Catholic Boy to win 8.5f Sam F. Davis S.-G3 with a fair-to-okay speed figure for fifth win in seven career starts; four previous victories had been accomplished over turf, all-weather, or wet tracks; pace setting/pressing style keeps him trouble-free but he remains questionable over longer distances; genuine and admirable if nothing else.

 

17 – Kanthaka (J. Hollendorfer) 116 lbs.

Record: 3-2-0-0 ($153,440) – Derby points: 0

Pedigree: Jimmy Creed – Sliced Bread, by Noonmark

Most recent race: Feb. 10, 2018, Santa Anita, San Vicente S.-G2, finished first.

Latest workout: Feb. 19, 2018, Santa Anita, 4f-:50.4h

Likely next start: 8f Gotham S.-G2 (March 10)

The skinny: Defeated maidens impressively in second career start and then produced monument speed figure improvement when winning 7f San Vicente S.-G2 by 3 ¼ lengths with a powerful stretch kick; extreme race-shape certainly aided his win and his pedigree tells us he’s much more likely to be a late-running sprinter than a two-turn prospect; likely to reappear in one-turn 8f Gotham S.-G2 March 10.

 

18 – Enticed (K. McLaughlin) 116 lbs.

Record:  4-2-0-1 ($230,680) Derby points: 13

Pedigree: Medaglia d’Oro – It’s Tricky, by Mineshaft

Most recent race: Feb. 3, 2018, Gulfstream Park, Holy Bull S-G2, finished fourth.

Latest workout: none since raced.

Likely next start: to be determined.

The skinny: Already a two-turn stakes winner at Churchill Downs and has the pedigree to improve with distance and maturity but was disappointing in 2018 bow, finishing fourth beaten nearly 15 lengths behind Audible, in Holy Bull S.-G2; needs to produce a significant forward move in his next start to remain under consideration for spring classics.

 

19 – Tiz Mischief (D. Romans) 116 lbs.

Record: 5-1-2-1 ($121,600) – Derby points: 6

Pedigree: Union Rags – Trensa, by Giant’s Causeway

Most recent race: Feb. 3, 2018, Gulfstream Park, Holy Bull S.-G2, finished third

Latest workout: Feb. 18, 2018, Gulfstream Park, 4f-:47.2b

Likely next start: 9f Tampa Bay Derby-G2 (March 10) or 8.5f Rebel S.-G2 (March 17).

The skinny: Was narrowly beaten in 8.5f Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes-G2 in November but could only manage to finish a distant third (beaten more than 13 lengths) upon reappearance in Holy Bull S.-G2; likely to be fitter and sharper in his next outing as indicated by a sharp 4f workout Feb. 18 (3rd fastest of 68).

 

20 – My Boy Jack (K. Desormeaux) 116 lbs.

Record: 8-2-3-1 ($425,125) Derby points: 12

Pedigree: Creative Cause – Golden Shaft, by Mineshaft

Most recent race: Feb. 19, 2018, Oaklawn Park, Southwest S.-G3, finished first.

Latest workout: none since raced

Likely next start: to be determined

The skinny: Left his previous form behind with a powerful come-from-behind 4 ½ length victory in the 8f Southwest S.-G3 over muddy, sealed surface; previously had displayed solid grass form (listed stakes winner and stakes-placed last fall); perhaps the off-track moved him or maybe he’s maturing and developing; will be interesting to see if he can duplicate this type of performance on fast ground next time out.

 

21 – Sporting Chance (D. W. Lukas) 115 lbs.

Record: 4-2-1-0 ($269,140) Derby points: 2

Pedigree: Tiznow – Wynning Ride, by Candy Ride

Most recent race: Feb. 19, 2018, Oaklawn Park, Southwest S.-G3, finished fourth.

Latest workout: none since raced.

Likely next start: to be determined

The skinny: Won the Hopeful S.-G1 at Saratoga but was subsequently stopped on due to knee surgery; most likely in need of the race when fourth (stalked pace, weakened late) behind My Boy Jack over muddy sealed surface in Southwest S.-G3 at Oaklawn Park upon his reappearance in mid-February;sure to benefit greatly from the outing and seems likely to produce a forward move in his next start.

 

22 – Lombo (M. Pender) 115 lbs.

Record: 3-2-0-1 ($129,225) – Derby points: 10

Pedigree: Graydar – Burg Berg, by Johannesburg

Most recent race: Feb. 3, 2018, Santa Anita, Robert B. Lewis S.-G3, finished first

Latest workout: Feb. 16, 2018, Santa Anita, 4f-:50h

Likely next start: to be determined.

The skinny: Followed a promising maiden sprint win with a gate-to-wire victory in 8.5f Robert B. Lewis Stakes-G3 vs. modest field; average speed figure accomplished under pristine conditions makes form suspect; lightly-raced and eligible to improve but still has much to prove.

 

23 – Noble Indy (T. Pletcher) 114 lbs.

Record: 3-2-0-1 ($91,600) – Derby points: 10

Pedigree: Take Charge Indy – Noble Maz, by Storm Boot

Most recent race: Feb. 17, 2018, Risen Star S.-G2, finished third.

Latest workout: none since raced

Likely next start: to be determined

The skinny: Suffered his first defeat in a 3-race career when a willing third (beaten two lengths) in moderately-rated Risen Star S.-G2 at Fair Grounds; previously had won a decent two-turn allowance race at Gulfstream Park;  genuine colt has a good stalking style but may not have the necessary turn of foot to compete at the highest level in his division.

 

24 – Instilled Regard (J. Hollendorfer) 114 lbs.

Record: 6-2-2-1 ($228,000) – Derby points: 14

Pedigree: Arch – Enhancing, by Forestry

Most Recent Race: Feb. 17, 2018, Fair Grounds, Risen Star S.-G2, finished fourth.

Latest Workout: none since raced

Likely next start: to be determined.

The skinny: Disappointed as the favorite when failing to capitalize on a perfect stalking trip and wound up fourth (beaten 2 ¼ lengths) behind Bravazo in moderately-rated Risen Star S.-G2 in mid-February at Fair Grounds; previously had enhanced the Los Alamitos Futurity-G1 form with a visually pleasing win in listed Lecomte Stakes-G3 in his sophomore debut by 3 ¾ length victory; speed figures have stagnated in last three starts, indicating, perhaps, that he doesn’t own the upside that was once believed.

 

25 – Mask (C. Brown) 114 lbs.

Record: 2-2-0-0 ($105.760) – Derby points: 0

Pedigree: Tapit – Hidden Expression, by Yonaguska

Most Recent Race: Jan. 6, 2018, Gulfstream Park, Mucho Macho Man S., finished first.

Latest Workout: Jan. 20, 2018, Palm Meadows, 4f-:49.1b

Likely next start: to be determined.

The skinny:  Verified sharp maiden win with eased-up gate-to-wire score in 8F listed Mucho Macho Man S. but subsequently suffered undisclosed setback at the beginning of February and was expected to miss several weeks of training according to trainer Chad Brown; needs to get back into a regular training pattern very soon to avoid falling too far behind.

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Triple Crown Tracker – Top 25 Rankings With Theoretical Weight Assignments

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