Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Triple Crown Tracker

These rankings reflect the author’s evaluation of past, present, and projected form expressed in a theoretical true handicap (high weight 126 lbs.) at one mile and one-quarter at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May, 2016.

(Updated April 12, 2016)

1 – NYQUIST (D. O’Neill) 126

Uncle Mo-Seeking Gabrielle, by Forestry,

Latest workout: none since raced

Last start: April 2, GP, first, Florida Derby-G1

Ky. Derby qualifying points: (130) 7-7-0-0 - $2,322,600

$400,000 FTF March 2-year-old in training, Eclipse Award winning champion 2-year-old, athletic, medium-sized colt with fluid action, extremely tactical and versatile, 1st foal, dam modest maiden-claiming winner but a half-sister to the graded stakes-winning dam of Metropolitan Mile-G1 winner Sahara Sky; unbeaten in 7 starts and clearly has established himself as the favorite for the American classics following a resounding 3 ¼ length victory in 9F Florida Derby-G1 over track listed as good (broke sharply, established pace under some pressure, met favored Mohaymen’s challenge in upper stretch, drew clear while a bit erratic in final furlong but was strong to the wire); had made very impression in 2016 debut in 7F San Vicente S.-G2 at Santa Anita in mid-February, establishing pace inside and fighting off all challengers to win by 1 ½ lengths from Exaggerator while earning a career top speed figure; had won all five starts as a 2yo including 8.5F Breeders’ Cup Juvenile-G1 (by ½ length, extremely wide throughout, kept on gamely in a superior performance); the 8.5F FrontRunner S.-G1 (by ¾ length) at Santa Anita in October, 7F Del Mar Futurity-G1 (by 3 ¾ lengths) in September and 6.5F Best Pal S.-G2 (by 5 ¼ lengths) in August, defeating the same colt (Swipe) in each of his last four 2015 victories; pedigree leans much more to speed than stamina so Derby distance (and beyond) possibly could test his limit but is clearly a top class colt with extreme quality, currently preparing for Kentucky Derby-G1 at Keeneland Race Course.

 

2 - CUPID (B. Baffert) 122

Tapit-Pretty ‘N Smart, by Beau Genius

Latest workout: April 6, SA, 7f-1:24.3h

Last Start: March 19, OP, won, Rebel S.-G2

Ky. Derby qualifying points: (50) 4-2-1-0 $587,500

$900,000Y, half-brother to 8 winners, including graded stakes winners Heart Ashley and Ashley’s Kitty and to listed stakes winner Indianapolis, dam stakes-placed sprinter; has become a major Kentucky Derby candidate following highly impressive win in 8.5F Rebel S.-G2 in fourth career start, overcoming awkward break to quickly establish solid pace inside, lugging in sharply after straightening for home but then fighting off a strong challenge from Whitmore in deep stretch to record 1 ¼ length victory (galloped out full of run) with legitimate speed figure; previously had won eye-catching 8.5F SA maiden by 5 ¼ lengths despite poor trip (stumbled start, wide throughout); has produced forward moves in each of his races and appears to have enormous upside; pedigree leans slightly more to speed than stamina but classic distances should be within his range; still somewhat green but has proven capable of winning on the lead or from off the pace and is bred to handle any surface; was flown back to home base in California to train in the interim but will return to Oaklawn Park for final Kentucky Derby prep in Arkansas Derby-G1 April 16.

 

3- MOHAYMEN (K. McLaughlin) 122

Tapit-Justwhistledixie, by Dixie Union

Latest workout: none since raced

Last start: April 2, GP, fourth, Florida Derby-G1

Ky. Derby qualifying points: (80) 6-5-0-0 - $852,850

$2.2 million yearling, half-brother to Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner New Year’s Day (by Street Cry); dam multiple Grade-2 winner; flawless, athletic action with tactical speed and the versatility to produce a quick burst or an elongated run, suffered first career defeat (fourth, beaten 8 lengths, to Nyquist) in Florida- Derby-G1 as 4/5 favorite (was wide throughout but was never going well, and after challenging for lead at quarter pole faded readily); previously had been highly impressive in five victories, including 8.5F Fountain of Youth S.-G2 at GP Feb. 27 (by 2 ¼ lengths from Zulu), and in Holy Bull S.G-2 (by 3 ½ lengths from Greenpointcrusader) the previous month; began career winning 6F maiden race by half-length at Belmont Park in September, the Nashua S.-G2 at 8F in November (by 1 ¾ lengths) and then the 9F Remsen S.-G2 (by 1 ½ lengths), the latter two races at Aqueduct in November and in both starts beating subsequent Jerome S.-G3 winner Flexibility; almost certain to stay the Derby’s 10-furlong distance and beyond; was forced to cover 54 more feet than Nyquist according to Trakus in most recent performance and may not have cared for wet/good surface; also was ridden from the gate in an attempt to secure forward placing and perhaps prefers to settle and produce a late run; very possibly can regain top form in Kentucky Derby-G1 but will remain a question mark until then; workouts leading up to next race should be closely monitored.

 

4 – DESTIN (T. Pletcher) 121

Giant’s Causeway-Dream of Summer, by Siberian Summer

Latest workout: April 8, PBD, 5f-1:01b

Last start: March 12, Tam, won, Tampa Bay Derby-G2

Ky. Derby qualifying points: (51) 5-3-1-0 $390,700

$400,000Y, full-brother to Creative Cause (Norfolk S.-G1, etc.); dam won Apple Blossom S.-G1 and 3 other graded stakes; rapidly developing and produced best performance in 5-race career when winning 8.5F Tampa Bay Derby-G2 in  mid-March by 1 length from stablemate Outwork with career-top speed figure (good tactical speed to press pace, prevailed final furlong); was nearly as impressive when capturing Sam F. Davis S.-G3 over same course in February (always within range, strong late kick by 2 ¼ lengths from Rafting); previously had finished fourth in 8.5F Le Comte S.-G3 (wide trip, beaten 5 lengths by Mo Tom), and second in 8F allowance race at Gulfstream Park in December (by 1 ¼ lengths to Goldenray) after winning 7F debut at Belmont Park in Oct. (by 1 length from Sea Wizard), pedigree suggests no distant limitations and seems likely to continue to improve with maturity; might be taking the worst of it in 10F Kentucky Derby-G1 as there are no plans for another prep race, requiring the difficult task of producing a peak effort following a two month layoff.

 

5 – GUN RUNNER (S. Asmussen) 121

Candy Ride-Quiet Giant, by Giant’s Causeway

Latest workout: April 11, CD, 5f-1:01b

Last start: March 26. 28, FG, won, Louisiana Derby.-G2

Ky. Derby qualifying points: (151) 5-4-0-0 - $906,920

1st foal, dam 9F Gr. 2 winning half-sister to Horse of the Year Saint Liam and to 2 other listed SW’s; possesses tactical speed and employs a stalk/pounce style; has dominated Louisiana-based 3-year-olds in 2016 with two visually pleasing victories, the 9F Louisiana Derby-G2 (by 4 ½ lengths from Tom’s Ready) in late March and the 8.5F Risen Star S.-G2 at FG (by ½ length from Forevamo) the previous month; likely has further improvement in him; had won first two career starts in promising style, an 8F maiden at Churchill Downs in September and an 8.5F allowance race at Keeneland the following month (rallying from mid-pack in both); suffered only defeat in final juvenile outing when 4th (beaten 3 1/2 lengths) in productive Ky. Jockey Club S.G2 in November (struck front final furlong but weakened late); should stay classic trip and beyond, continues to progress but has yet to record a truly impressive speed figure so doubts remain concerning his top-end ability and the quality of the competition; scheduled to train up to the Kentucky Derby-G1, at this stage must be given a reasonable chance for at least a placing.

 

6 – EXAGGERATOR (K. Desormeaux) 120

Curlin-Dawn Raid, by Vindication

Latest workout: none since raced

Last start: March 12, SA, 3rd, San Felipe S.-G2

Ky. Derby qualifying points: (126) 8-3-2-1 - $1,071,120

$110,000 yearling, 3rd foal, dam stakes-placed half-sister to Canadian champion mare Ember’s Song; turned in career top effort when rallying from nearly 17 lengths back to win Santa Anita Derby-G1 by 6 ¼ lengths from Mor Spirit in early April, producing an exceptional turn of foot when asked for run while wide entering far turn and continuing strongly to win going away (drifted in final furlong); extremely fast pace and sloppy (sealed) surface clearly aided his performance though the resulting speed figure was extremely strong; previously had been considered by trainer to have distance limitations when finishing third, beaten 2 ¾ lengths, to Danzing Candy in 8.5F San Felipe S.-G2 at Santa Anita in mid-March (settled off pace, commenced rally turn, loomed bold threat but flattened out final furlong); had been a strong runner-up in a highly-rated 7F San Vicente S.-G2 upon reappearance at Santa Anita in mid-February (by 1 1/2 lengths to  Nyquist), keeping on well but unable to catch unbeaten champion; culminated busy juvenile campaign with game victory in muddy track 8.5F Delta Jackpot S.-G2 at Delta Downs in November (by 3/4 length from Sunny Ridge) after finishing fourth without mishap (beaten 3 lengths) in Breeders’ Cup Juvenile S.-G1 the previous month; bred for classic distance and finally gave indication in most recent start that longer trips can be within his scope (at least over a wet surface); chances in Kentucky Derby-G1 would clearly increase should track condition be something other than dry and fast.

 

7 - SWIPE (K. Desormeaux) 120

Birdstone-Avalanche Lily, by Grand Slam

Latest workout: April 11, SA, 4f-49h TT

Last start: Oct. 31, Kee, second, BC Juvenile-G1

Ky. Derby qualifying points: (12) 7-1-5-1 - $608,330

$5,000 yearling, 4th foal, dam half-sister to 3 minor SW’s, no graded stakes winners appear under first 3 dams, sire won Belmont S.-G1 and sired a Belmont winner; clearly has out-performed his pedigree, having won or placed in 6 stakes during juvenile campaign, including runner-up efforts (all to champion Nyquist) in BC Juvenile-G1, FrontRunner S.G1, Del Mar Futurity-G1 and Best Pal S.-G2; previously had won listed Summer Juvenile S. at Los Alamitos; style (deep closer) and pedigree suggests he’ll handle a classic distance; had chip removed from ankle and didn’t resume serious training in mid-February; genuine and consistent; scheduled to make 2016 debut at Keeneland, 8.5F Lexington S.-G3 April 16; even in victory may not have enough qualifying points to insure a starting spot in Kentucky Derby-G1; much more realistic goal might be the Preakness-G1 followed by the Belmont S.-G1.

 

8 – BRODY’S CAUSE (D. Romans) 119

Giant’s Causeway-Sweet Breanna, by Sahm

Latest workout: none since raced

Last start: March 12, Tam, seventh, Tampa Bay Derby-G2

Ky. Derby qualifying points: (114) 6-3-0-1 - $1,223,138

$350,000 yearling, 2nd foal, half-brother to 8.5F stakes-placed Midnight Sweetie (by Midnight Lute); dam placed in Woodbine Oaks; regained best form and earned a career-top speed figure when capturing 14-runner 9F Blue Grass S.-G1 (by 1 ¾ lengths from My Man Sam), producing strong, steady run from 11th midway to be along in time while earning a moderate speed figure; had been highly disappointing in 3yo debut the previous month when producing no rally and winding up an inexplicable seventh (beaten 12 lengths) in 8.5F Tampa Bay Derby-G2; enjoyed productive juvenile campaign, winning Breeders’ Futurity-G1 over muddy surface at Keeneland before turning in an admirable performance when third despite a wide trip (finding best stride too late) in Breeders’ Cup Juvenile-G1 to Nyquist; has excellent mixture of speed and stamina in female family; pedigree suggest classic distance and beyond should be within his range; appears to lack an exceptional turn of foot but can produce an effective, extended rally; won’t be without a long shot chance in Kentucky Derby-G1.

 

9 – MO TOM (T. Amoss) 119

Uncle Mo-Caroni, by Rubiano

Latest workout: none since raced

Last start: March 26, FG, third, Louisiana Derby.-G2

Ky. Derby qualifying points: (32) 7-3-0-3 - $291,526

$150,000 yearling; half-brother to stakes-winning fillies Beautician and Bella Castani, dam a half-sister to Grade-2 winning sprinter Kashatreya; employs a deep closing style; has been badly victimized by severe traffic troubles in last two outings, most recently in the 9F Louisiana Derby-G2 in late March when finishing fourth to Gun Runner (beaten 5 ¾ lengths) after being forced to check and steady twice in the final furlong when appearing to be full of run); was also extremely unlucky when a belated third to Gun Runner (by 1 ½ lengths) in 8.5F Risen Star S.-G2 at FG the previous month (checked sharply, altered course upper stretch, finished well when clear but too late); previously had won mile-70 Le Comte S.-G3 at Fair Grounds, producing a strong kick to win going away impressively and the 8F Street Sense S. at Churchill Downs in November; style bodes well for success at classic distance though lack of tactical speed invites traffic trouble and pace-dependency; remains a legitimate Kentucky Derby-G1 prospect though his lack of tactical speed suggests he may never be in complete control of his own destiny.

 

10 - OUTWORK (T. Pletcher) 119

Uncle Mo-Nonna Mia, by Empire Maker

Latest workout: none since raced

Last start: March 12, Tam, second, Tampa Bay Derby-G2

Ky. Derby qualifying points: (120) 4-3-1-0 $701,800

2nd foal, half-brother listed 8.5F SW Nonna’s Boy; dam Gr. 1 stakes-placed; brave in victory when fighting off long shot 80-1 maiden Trojan Nation to win moderately-rated 9F Wood Memorial S.-G1 over sealed/muddy track at Aqueduct in April, stalking pace throughout, taking clear lead furlong from home and then withstanding runner-up’s rail bid to survive by a head; had displayed considerable promise in previous start when establishing pace and then giving way grudgingly when second (beaten 1 length to stablemate Destin while 7 lengths clear of rest) in 8.5F Tampa Bay Derby-G2); previously had won 6F allowance race at same track in February (by 4 1/4 lengths with pace-forcing trip) and 4.5F maiden juvenile previous April at Keeneland; probably will prove most effective as a miler but most recent victory guarantees a start in 10F Kentucky Derby-G1 next month; lightly-raced with plenty of upside but rigorous Triple Crown campaign could take its toll.

 

11 - MOR SPIRIT (B. Baffert) 118

Eskendereya-Im A Dixie Girl, by Dixie Union

Latest workout: none since raced

Last start: March 12, SA, second, San Felipe S.-G2

Ky. Derby qualifying points: (84) 7-3-4-0 - $658,400

$650,000 FTF March 2-year-old-in-training purchase, half-brother to 4 winners, dam (sprinter) was listed 2yo stakes winner and graded stakes-placed; performed below expectations when well-beaten second as 7/5 favorite in 9f Santa Anita Derby-G1 over sloppy/sealed surface in April, having every chance when ideally positioned in mid-pack off blazing pace but never accelerating and winding up 6 ½ lengths behind deep-closer Exaggerator; previously was beaten 2 lengths when second to Danzing Candy as 8/5 favorite in 8.5F San Felipe S.-G2 at Santa Anita in mid-March (willing finish without mishap); had begun 2016 campaign on winning note in below standard 8.5F Robert B. Lewis S.-G2 at SA in early February, settling off slow pace and then wearing down leaders going away by 1 1/2 lengths from Uncle Lino; had employed similar tactics when winning Los Alamitos Futurity-G1 from distance-challenged stablemate Toews On Ice in December; finished second (to Airoforce) in Kentucky Jockey Club S.-G2 over sloppy track the previous month; likely to outstay pedigree, perhaps didn’t care for off track in most recent start but clearly is one-paced without a true turn a foot; was once this stable’s best Ky. Derby hope but now must be considered less highly regarded than his late-developing stablemate, Cupid.

 

12 – UNIFIED (J. Jerkins) 117

Candy Ride-Union City, by Dixie Union

Latest workout: none since raced

Last start: April 9, Aqu, won, Bay Shore S.-G3

Ky. Derby qualifying points: (0) 2-2-0-0 $204.000

$325,000Y, half-brother to listed stakes-placed Honkeytonk Man (by Bluegrass Cat); dam stakes-placed full-sister to Dixie City (Demoiselle S.-G2); family of champion 2yo Dehere; top quality prospect is unbeaten in two starts, winning highly-rated 6F maiden at Gulfstream Park by 3 lengths in February and then 7F Bay Shore S.-G3 over muddy (sealed) surface at Aqueduct in April by 3 lengths from King Kranz, setting pace inside under pressure and then drawing clear with authority while earning clocking .29 seconds faster than Carter S.-G1 for older sprinters an hour later; pedigree suggests he’ll stay at least a middle distance; appears ready to tackle best in division though participation in either Preakness S.-G1 or Belmont S.-G1 is questionable at best; much more likely to take a conservative path and be allowed to develop over time; expect 9F Peter Pan S.-G2 May 14 at Belmont Park to be strongly considered for next start.

 

13 – CREATOR (S. Asmussen) 117

Tapit-Morena, by Privately Held

Latest workout: April 11, OP, 4f-:50.2b

Last start: March 19, OP, finished third, Rebel S.-G2

Ky. Derby qualifying points: (10) $168,320

2nd foal, dam champion older mare in Peru and was multiple graded stakes-placed in U.S., rapidly progressing and produced best effort to date when rallying very wide from last of 14 to finish third (beaten 3 lengths by Cupid) in 8.5F Risen Star S.-G2 at Oaklawn Park in mid-March; had won 8.5F maiden over same track and distance in 6th career start the previous month impressively by 7 lengths, strictly a deep-closer with no tactical speed but can produce an extended late kick and should handle a classic distance and beyond; pace and trip dependent at this stage of his career but has plenty of room for further improvement, with only 10 Kentucky Derby-G1 qualifying points is in jeopardy of exclusion from field without at least a runner-up performance in Arkansas Derby-G1 April 16.

 

14 - LANI (M. Matsunaga) 116

Tapit-Heavenly Romance, by Sunday Silence

Latest workout: none since race

Last start: March 26, Meydan, won, UAE Derby-G2

Ky. Derby qualifying points (100) 6-3-1-0 $1,366,118

6th foal, half-brother to 2 listed Japanese stakes winners, dam multi-listed stakes winner in Japan; qualified for entrance into the Kentucky Derby with victory in 9.5F UAE Derby-G2 at Meydan in late March despite a poor trip (bad stumble at break, wide throughout) to wear down previously unbeaten filly Polar River close home by ¾ length in time .06 seconds slower than clocking earned in same race last year by Mubtaahij (8th, beaten 9 lengths. to American Pharoah in subsequent 2015 Kentucky Derby); previously had won 2 of 5 starts in Japan including a 8F listed stakes in November; lacks a turn of foot and employs an extended, one-paced closing style; will stay classic distance and beyond; clearly a colt with some quality but form must be viewed with some suspicion and seems certain to be considered an outsider when making U.S. debut in first jewel of American Triple Crown.

 

15 – MAJESTO (G. Delgado) 116

Tiznow-Unacloud, by Unaccounted For

Latest workout: none since raced

Last start: April 2, GP, second, Florida Derby-G1

Ky. Derby qualifying points: (40) – 6-1-2-2 $239,500

$300,000 yearling, half-brother to 6 winners including Arkansas Derby-G1 winner Overanalyze (by Dixie Union) and Matron S.-G1 Mighty Breeze (by Meadowlake); dam unraced; earned diploma in fifth career start in 8.5F maiden at GP (by 1 length from subsequent impressive winner Dig Deep) and then improved again when an excellent runner-up (beaten 3 ¼ lengths) in 9F Florida Derby-G1 to Nyquist, rallying inside from seventh midway to loom a threat in upper stretch, proving no match late but staying on well; speed figures have risen dramatically in each of last four starts and pedigree (Tiznow) indicates further improvement with age, maturity, and distance is likely; has enough qualifying points to gain entrance to Triple Crown’s first jewel and won’t be inconvenienced by 10 furlong trip; not without a chance to at least hit the board with another forward move.

 

16 – MY MAN SAM (C. Brown) 116

Trappe Shot-Lauren Byrd, by Arch

Latest workout: none since raced

Last start: April 9, Kee, second, Blue Grass S.-G1

Ky. Derby qualifying points: (40) 4-1-2-0 $251,120

Third foal, dam listed stakes-placed half-sister to Hudson Steele (Dixie S.-G2); from first crop of high-class sprinter; improving with each outing and produced career-top performance when a strong-finishing second in 9F Blue Grass S.-G1 (by 1 ¾ lengths to Brody’s Cause), breaking from far outside post and then rallying from 10th of 14 after being extremely wide into stretch; previously finished fastest but too late when runner-up in strong 8.5F allowance race over Aqueduct inner track in March (by 1 length to Matt King Coal); defeated maidens by eight widening lengths over same track and distance in January; first four dams have produced only one stakes winner but family contains strong stamina influences; deep closing style makes him pace/trip dependent but clearly is a colt on the improve; has earned enough qualifying points to guarantee a start in Kentucky Derby-G1 and won’t be without a puncher’s  chance to at least finish in the frame.

 

17 - WHITMORE (R. Moquett) 116

Pleasantly Perfect-Melody’s Spirit, by Scat Daddy

Latest workout: April 9, OP, 4f-:48.4b

Last start: March 19, OP, second, Rebel S.-G2

Ky. Derby qualifying points (24) 5-2-2-0 $375,000

1st foal, dam unraced, second dam maiden-claiming sprint winner; continues to progress and turned in best effort to date when excellent second to Cupid (beaten 1 ¼ lengths) in 14-runner 8.5F Rebel S.-G2 at Oaklawn Park in mid-March, rallying from ninth to loom strong threat a furlong out but unable to get by pace-setting winner; had finished second (beaten 2 ¾  lengths) to Suddenbreakingnews in 8.5F Southwest S.-G3 the previous month (rallied from 11th to hit front mid-stretch but proved no match for deep-closing winner); versatile gelding has proven to be effective as a late-running sprinter and can stay a middle distance but is questionable at a classic trip; prefers to be held up early and produce one-run and requires a patient, well-timed ride, scheduled to reappear in Arkansas Derby-G1 April 16 currently a non-stakes winner but is capable of landing a good prize in due time.

 

18 – FELLOWSHIP (M. Casse) 115

Awesome of Course-Go Girlfriend Go, by Demidoff

Latest workout: none since raced

Last start: April 2, GP, third, Florida Derby-G1

Ky. Derby qualifying points: (32) 11-2-3-3 $563,340

4th foal, half-brother to La-bred SW Johnny Handsome, dam minor stakes-placed winner, plenty of stamina in female family though first three generations contain no other stakes winners, sire has had moderate regional success in Florida; seasoned colt with durability,  has made an excellent living finishing in the frame in big races, most recently rallying from last of 10 to be a non-threatening third (beaten 4 ¼ lengths to Nyquist) in 9F Florida Derby-G1, previously had finished a willing third though no real threat (beaten 6 ¼ lengths) behind Mohaymen in 8.5F Fountain of Youth S.-G2 at GP in late February; best previous effort came when winning restricted 8.5F Florida Stallion In Reality S. at GP in October (by 4 ½ lengths after rallying from 14th); clearly most effective as a deep closer; chance to win a decent purse if realistically spotted in lesser added money events for 3-year-olds but has more than paid his way while earning secondary awards against the best in the division; scheduled to make next start in Kentucky Derby-G1 for new trainer Mark Casse (previously conditioned by Stanley Gold).

 

19 – SHAGAF (C. Brown) 115

Bernardini-Muhaawara, by Unbridled’s Song

Latest workout: none since raced

Last start: March 5, Aqu, won, Gotham S.-G3

Ky. Derby qualifying points: (50) 4-3-0-0 - $328,800

2nd foal, dam listed stakes-winner, 2nd dam multiple Gr.1 winner Habibti; suffered first career defeat when a disappointing fifth of eight (beaten 4 lengths) to Outwork in Wood Memorial S.-G1 over muddy/sealed surface in April, moving within range on turn but lacking an effective late kick; had been perfect in first three career starts, including 8.5F Gotham S.-G3 over inner Aqueduct track in March (settled in second flight before responding late to wear down pacesetter Laoban by 1 ½ lengths; previously had won 8F maiden in debut over outer Aqueduct main track in November (by 6 lengths from next-out winner It’s All Relevant) and 8F first-level allowance at Gulfstream Park in January (by 2 lengths from Southside Warrior), not particular fast according to numbers and lacks a true turn of foot but should stay the Derby trip and beyond; after initially displaying considerable promise will now need sharp improvement to be a factor in the Classics.

 

20 – SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS (D. Von Hemel) 115

Mineshaft-Uchitel, by Afleet Alex

Latest workout: April 9, OP, 4f-:48.2b

Last start: March 19, OP, fifth, Rebel S.-G2

Ky. Derby qualifying points: (10) 7-3-30 $470,032

$72,000Y, 2nd  foal of unplaced half-sister to Composure (Santa Anita Oaks-G1, etc.) and Ready Set (West Virginia Derby-G3); victimized by a poor draw, traffic trouble and a wide trip when a non-threatening fifth (willing finish, beaten 5 length) to Cupid in 8.5F Rebel S.-G2 at Oaklawn Park in mid-March; had made very favorable impression in 8.5F Southwest S.-G3 in 3yo debut at Oaklawn Park the previous month when rallying from last of 14 to win going away (by 2 3/4 lengths from Whitmore); had raced exclusively at Remington Park as a 2yo and was narrowly beaten by Discreetness in 8F Springboard Mile S. in December (by a nose over sloppy track) after winning 7F Clever Trevor S. (by 1/2 length from Cash Bonus); has developed a deep closing style that can be pace/traffic dependent; has plenty of stamina in female family and style suggests he’ll enjoy 10F and beyond; better than last race shows but needs a strong pace and good racing luck to be at his best, with only 10 Kentucky Derby-G1 qualifying points needs to finish at least second in Arkansas Derby-G1 to insure inclusion in first jewel of American Triple Crown.

 

ALSO ELIGIBLE: DANZING CANDY (C. Sise, Jr.); CHERRY WINE (D. Romans); TOM’S READY (D. Stewart); ADVENTIST (L. Gyarmati); TROJAN NATION (P. Gallagher); LAOBAN (E. Guillot), DAZZLING GEM (B. Cox), FOREVAMO (A. Stall, Jr.); OSCAR NOMINATED (M. Maker); COLLECTED (B. Baffert).

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Triple Crown Tracker

Jeff Siegel's Blog |