Our Triple Crown Tracker Power Rankings identify the best 3-year-olds of 2021 in order of preference, with each horse given a theoretical weight assignment starting at 126 lbs. based on past performance and projected development.
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1 – ROCK YOUR WORLD (J. Sadler) – 126 lbs.
Pedigree: Candy Ride – Charm the Maker, by Empire Maker
Lifetime record: 3-3-0-0 ($546,600). Derby points: 100
Last start: April 3, 2021, Santa Anita, 9F Santa Anita Derby-G1, finished first
Next start: May 1, 2021, 10F Churchill Downs, Kentucky Derby-G1
Latest workout: April 17, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.3h (see video)
The skinny: $650,000Y; third foal, lengthy colt with plenty of scope; full-brother to California Gr.3-placed She’s Our Charm; dam multiple stakes winner from a high class staying turf family; unbeaten in three starts, most recently in his first try on dirt when registering a gate-to-wire victory in the 9F Santa Anita Derby-G1 (by four and one-quarter lengths from Medina Spirit) while setting fast fractions and then repelling all challenges to drew clear in the final furlong with complete authority (and galloping out far in front); earned a career top 100 Beyer speed figure in his latest outing (tops among intended Kentucky Derby starters); previous two wins were accomplished on grass, the listed 8F Pasadena S. in February in visually pleasing style (by two and one-quarter lengths from Cathkin Peak) and a maiden over 6F on grass on New Year’s Day (by one and three-quarter lengths while appearing to toy with his opposition); pedigree suggests he’ll thrive over a classic distance and farther; has proven to be effective on the lead or from a stalking position though he’s yet to experience dirt kickback; will enter the Kentucky Derby-G1 at least among the first three favorites; has never been a particularly willing performer in the morning but his most recent workout April 17 (5f, :59.3h) was his best yet; still a bit green in the p.m. (switched leads twice in the stretch in his most recent start) but has the kind of potential that could reach a championship level.
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2 – ESSENTIAL QUALITY (B. Cox) – 126 lbs.
Pedigree: Tapit – Delightful Quality, by Elusive Quality
Lifetime record: 5-5-0-0 ($2,265,144). Derby points: 140
Last start: April 3, 2021, Keeneland, 9F Blue Grass S.-G2, finished first
Next start: May 1, 2021, Churchill Downs, 10F Kentucky Derby-G1
Latest workout: April 17, Churchill Downs, 5f, :59.3b (see video)
The skinny: Godolphin homebred; dam graded stakes-placed sprinting half-sister to champion 2yo filly Folklore; 2020 Eclipse Award winning 2-year-old enters the Kentucky Derby-G1 with a perfect record in five starts, most recently when fully extended to win the 9F Blue Grass S.-G2 (by a neck from Highly Motivated) while enjoying a trouble-free pace-stalking trip; had reappeared in top form in late February with an authoritative victory over sloppy going in the 8F Southwest S.-G3 (by four and one-quarter lengths from Spielberg and Jackie’s Warrior); completed his 2-year-old season with back-to-back Grade 1 victories at Keeneland in the 8.5F BC Juvenile-G1 in November when rallying from nine lengths back with the help of the fast-early race-flow to win by three-quarters of a length from 90-1 Hot Rod Charlie and before that with a three and one-quarter length score in the 8.5F Breeders’ Futurity-G1 (from Keepmeinmind); speed figures have risen with every start but without a significant leap and with a career top Beyer number of a good-but-not-great 97; proven so far to be thoroughly genuine and versatile (though not particularly willing in morning workouts) while giving indication that the Derby’s 10F trip will easily be within his range; in top hands and will be the deserving favorite in the Kentucky Derby-G1
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3 – KNOWN AGENDA (T. Pletcher) – 124 lbs.
Pedigree: Curlin – Byrama, by Byron
Lifetime record: 6-3-1-1 ($541,700). Derby points: 102
Last start: March 28, 2021, Gulfstream Park, Florida Derby-G1, finished first
Next start: May 1, 2021, Churchill Downs, Kentucky Derby-G1
Latest workout: April 16, Churchill Downs, 5f, 1:00.2b
The skinny: St. Elias Stable homebred, dam Gr-1 9F dirt winner in California; verified the highly favorable impression he made in an 11-length 9F allowance victory at Gulfstream Park in February by returning the following month to capture the Florida Derby-G1 over that same track and distance with complete authority (by two and three-quarter lengths from Soup and Sandwich); earned a career top speed figure in that race and appears to be developing with maturity, experience and distance as is typical of offspring of Curlin; was categorized early in his career as a long-winded, plodding type but has displayed improved tactical speed and late acceleration in recent starts; seems certain to enjoy the 10 furlong trip of the Kentucky Derby-G1 and is likely to step forward again and be a major player in the spring classics.
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4 – HOT ROD CHARLIE (D. O’Neill) – 123 lbs.
Pedigree: Oxbow – Indian Miss, by Indian Charlie
Lifetime record: 7-2-1-02 ($1,00,700). Derby points: 110
Last start: March 20, 2021, Fair Grounds, 9.5F Louisiana Derby-G2, finished first
Next start: May 1, 2021, Churchill Downs, 10F Kentucky Derby-G1
Latest workout: April 17, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:14.1h (see video)
The skinny: $110,000Y, half-brother to champion sprinter Mtole; non-winning dam a half-sister to Davona Dale S.-G2 winner Live Lively; versatile colt has been successful on the lead or from off the pace and returned to winning form in his second 2021 outing when making all in the 9.5F Louisiana Derby-G2, relaxing without undue pressure to the top of the lane and then fighting off all challenges to register a two length score from Midnight Bourbon while establishing a new track record (1:55.06) and earning a career top 99 Beyer speed figure; had displayed plenty of promise during his juvenile campaign, beating maidens in his fourth start before finishing second (with the help of the race-shape) to champion Essential Quality in BC Juvenile-G1 by three quarters of a length at 91-1 after striking the front in mid-stretch; performed well when third (beaten a neck) behind Medina Spirit and Roman Centurian) in his 3yo debut in late January in the Robert B. Lewis S.-G3 while appearing to have winning momentum inside the furlong pole but then losing his punch close home while likely needing the outing; doesn’t have a great turn of foot and may be most effective as a stalker or pace presser; will be trained up to the Kentucky Derby with six weeks in between starts.
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5 – MEDINA SPIRIT (B. Baffert) – 121 lbs.
Pedigree: Protonico – Mongolian Change, by Brilliant Speed
Lifetime record: 5-2-3-0 ($315,200). Derby points: 74
Last star: April 3, 2021, Santa Anita, Santa Anita Derby-G1, finished second
Next start: May 1, 2021, Churchill Downs, 10F, Kentucky Dereby-G1
Latest workout: April 16, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00h (see video)
The skinny: $35,000 OBS 2yo; from the first crop of a multiple graded SW son of Giant’s Causeway, dam a synthetic maiden special weight winner at Presque Isle Downs; light female family (no SW’s in first three generations); was no match as the 4/5 favorite to Rock Your World when second (beaten four and one-quarter lengths) in the 9F Santa Anita Derby-G1 in early April, enjoying an ideal pace-stalking trip outside but then proving unable to quicken when the pressure was turned on at the head of the lane; previously had finished a distant second to unbeaten Life Is Good in the 8.5F San Felipe S.-G2 in late March, going down by eight lengths though gamely saving second money after stalking the winner throughout; before that displayed extreme courage when winning 8.5F Robert B. Lewis S.-G3 in late January (by a neck from Roman Centurian and Hot Rod Charlie) despite being under heavy pressure from the far turn to the wire; speed figures are decent but have stagnated in recent outings; pedigree suggests he’ll handle a classic distance but though he’s clearly a reliable and consistent sort his lack of progression and his one-paced style provide concern that he may have reached his ceiling.
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6 – HIGHLY MOTIVATED (C. Brown) – 121 lbs.
Pedigree: Into Mischief – Strong Incentive, by Warrior’s Reward
Lifetime record: 5-2-2-1 ($320,050). Derby points: 50
Last start: April 3, 2021, Keeneland, 9F Blue Grass S.-G2, finished second
Next start: May 1, 2021, Churchill Downs, 10F Kentucky Derby-G1
Latest workout: April 18, Keeneland, 4f, :47.1b
The Skinny: $240K though the ring as a weanling (retained by his breeder); first foal, dam a Canadian-bred sprint SW at 3; in the frame in all five career starts and earned a career top speed figure in his most recent start in early April when second (was five and one-half lengths clear of the rest) as the controlling speed in the 9F Blue Grass S.-G2 by a neck to Essential Quality, giving way grudgingly close home but with while benefitting from a race flow that may have flattered the performance; previously appeared a tad rusty when third (by a length and three-quarters to Weyburn) when making his seasonal bow in the 8F Gotham S-G3 the previous month; displayed plenty of potential when easily capturing the listed 6.5F Nyquist S. on the Breeders’ Cup undercard at Keeneland in November; pedigree suggests a classic distance will be stretching his limit; due to the projected pace flow may have to alter tactics in the Kentucky Derby-G1 that will prevent the same type of soft trip in the Kentucky Derby-G1 that he enjoyed in the Blue Grass S.-G2.
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7 – MIDNIGHT BOURBON (S. Asmussen) – 120 lbs.
Pedigree: Tiznow – Catch the Moon, by Malibu Moon
Lifetime record 7-2-2-3 ($461,420. Derby points: 66
Last start: March 20, 2021, Fair Grounds, 9.5F Louisiana Derby-G2, finished second
Next start: May 1, 2021, Churchill Downs, 10F Kentucky Derby-G1
Latest workout: April 11, Churchill Downs, 5f, 1:00.2b
The Skinny: $525K yearling, half-brother to three black-type performers including Girvin (Haskell Invitational G1, etc.) and Cocked and Loaded (Iroquois S.-G2, etc.); never off the board in seven career starts with his most notable win the 8.5F Lecomte S.-G3 at Fair Grounds in January (gate-to-wire, by one length from Proxy); subsequently finished third (by one and three-quarters lengths to Mandaloun) in 9F Risen Star S.-G2 in February and then most recently second in the 9.5F Louisiana Derby (by two lengths from Hot Rod Charlie) the following month; perhaps most effective when able to make the running though he has performed well in a stalker’s role; good recent Beyer speed figures indicate better is likely to come; will enter the Kentucky Derby-G1 following a six week layoff; clearly a genuine and consistent type though on resume is not quite up to the level of the leaders in the division at this stage.
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8 – SOUP AND SANDWICH (M. Casse) – 119 lbs.
Pedigree: Into Mischief – Souper Scoop, by Tapit
Lifetime record: 3-1-1-0 ($203,875). Derby points: 40
Last start: March 27, 2021, Gulfstream Park, Florida Derby-G1, finished second
Next start: May 1, 2021, Churchill Downs, 10F Kentucky Derby-G1
Latest workout: April 11, Churchill Downs, 4f, :48.4b (see video)
The skinny: Live Oak Stud homebred; Monmouth Park allowance-winning dam traces to a solid midwestern family that includes Til Forbid (Arlington Oaks-G3, etc.); won his first two career starts in excellent fashion, a state-bred 6.5F Gulfstream Park maiden by seven and one-quarter lengths and then a middle distance allowance event at Tampa Bay Downs by two and three-quarter lengths, both victories accomplished utilizing pace pressing/stalking tactics; took on much tougher competition in his most recent outing in the 9F Florida Derbny-G1 and acquitted himself quite well when establishing the pace and then staying on gamely to be second (by two and three-quarter lengths to Known Agenda) while three lengths clear of the rest; a genuine sort but is suspect at a classic distance; will need to improve again to make his mark in the spring classics but with just three career starts has room to for further development.
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9 – CADDO RIVER (B. Cox) – 118 lbs.
Pedigree: Hard Spun – Pangburn, by Congrats
Lifetime record: 6-2-3-0 ($166,092). Derby points: 50
Last start: April 10, 201, Oaklawn Park, 9FArkansas Derby, finished first.
Next start: May 1, 2021, Churchill Downs, 10F Kentucky Derby-G1
Latest workout: None since raced.
The skinny: Shortleaf Stable homebred; dam listed stakes winner and multiple graded stakes placed over middle distances; from the family of Preakness S.-G1 winner Tank’s Prospect; established fast pace and held on gamely to be second in 9F Arkansas Derby-G1 (by two and one-half lengths to Super Stock) in a return to form while enjoying his coveted front-running journey after resenting rating tactics and fading readily when unplaced in the 8.5F Rebel S.-G2 in his previous outing; made all when visually impressive in facile victory (by 10 and one-quarter lengths from Cowan) in listed 8F Smarty Jones in his 3-year-old debut in January; displayed promise during his juvenile campaign when runner-up in his first two starts in New York (both 7F) before graduating by 9 ½ lengths in one-turn 8F maiden special weight at Churchill Downs in November; pedigree suggests he could stay a classic distance but clearly needs to be on the front end to be most comfortable; likely to employ gate-to-wire tactics in the Kentucky Derby-G1 and if not respected could take the field a long way but if not should at least ensure a legitimate pace that could impact the effectiveness of the other pace pressers in the field while at the same time complimenting stable mate Essential Quality’s closing style.
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10 – HELIUM (M. Casse) – 118 lbs.
Pedigree: Ironicus – Thundering Emilla, by Thunder Gulch
Lifetime record: 3-3-0-0 ($287,763). Derby points: 50
Last start: March 6, 2021, Tampa Bay Downs, Tampa Bay Derby-G2, finished first
Next start: May 1, 2021, Churchill Downs, 10F Kentucky Derby-G1
Latest workout: April 16, Churchill Downs, 5f, 1:01.4bg
The skinny: $55,000Y; fourth foal, half-brother to Peruvian Gr. 1 winner Emilia’s Moon (by Malibu Moon); dam G3 SW in Peru; undefeated in three starts including the 8.5F Tampa Bay Derby-G2 in his 3-year-old debut (by three-quarters of a length from Hidden Stash), producing a steady bid (was 10th early) to secure the win in good style from a moderate field; previously had won both of his starts as a 2-year-old over the Woodbine synthetic surface (both at seven furlongs), a maiden in September (by three and one-quarter lengths from Excellorator) and then the listed Display S. the following month (by four and one-quarter lengths from Gospel Way); versatile colt has won pressing the front speed and also from far off the pace; bred to handle any surface and apparently does; should stay a classic distance; speed figures aren’t yet close to being competitive with the tops in his division and will have two months in between races while training up to the Kentucky Derby-G1; obviously is a colt of some quality but the strategy from his connections appears to place a higher emphasis on making the Derby field than actually providing him with the proper preparation to have a chance to win it.
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Also eligible: Super Stock (S. Asmussen); O Besos (G. Foley); Bourbonic (T. Pletcher); Dynamic One; (T. Pletcher); Mandaloun (B. Cox); Like the King (W. Ward); Sainthood (T. Pletcher); King Fury (K. McPeek); Dream Shake (P. Eurton); Hidden Stash (V. Oliver); Get Her Number (P. Miller).
