Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (Del Mar) for Friday, November 3, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

DEL MAR

Friday, November 3, 2017

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RACE 1: Post 11:25 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Good Bye Greg; 6-Mr. Hinx

Forecast: Mr. Hinx earned (by far) a career-top speed figure when second in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship last month at Santa Anita, an effort which if repeated today should be more than good enough to beat this field.  However, there’s a possible “bounce” factor to consider, though four weeks should be enough to recover from what had to be a fairly taxing race.  Good Bye Greg is somewhat intriguing at 8-1 on the morning line based on his synthetic form at Presque Isle Downs and before that Arlington Park.  A winner of nine of 14 career starts including six of his last seven and with speed figures that fit, the Rivelli-trained veteran sprinter is unproven on dirt, but over a fast Del Mar strip (much faster than what was offered during the summer meeting) the son of Teuflesberg could shake loose and take this field a long way.

 

​​RACE 2: Post 12:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 9-Cheekaboomboom; 11-Ritzy A. P.

Forecast: The main contention in this wide-open allowance/optional/claiming grass grab bag is drawn outside.  Cheekaboomboom stretches out again, has a prior win over this course, and looks dangerous from off the pace with good racing luck.  The Eurton-trained gelding picks up Bejarano, as Prat jumps off to pilot Ritzy A.P., beaten a nose in a similar spot at Santa Anita last month with a career top figure.  The English Channel colt hasn’t had any success over the Del Mar lawn but could be a better type now.  These are the two we’ll be including in our rolling exotics but if you can afford to go deeper, go right ahead.

 

 ​​RACE 3: Post 12:35 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Prime Issue; 2-City of Light

Forecast: City of Light gets a chance to make amends after winding up second as the 3/5 favorite in a similar affair last month at Santa Anita, and this return to Del Mar, where he broke his maiden by more seven lengths two races back, should make the winning difference.  The son of Quality Road is fast on figures and projects to enjoy an ideal pace-prompting trip and then have every chance to prevail when it counts.  Prime Issue represents intense inside speed and if not pressured early could be hard to catch.  He’s another with a clear affection for the Del Mar main track (four wins in nine starts) and is reunited with “win rider” Roman.  Both should be used in rolling exotic play with preference on top to City of Light.

 

​​​​RACE 4: Post: 1:10 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-One Fast Broad; 8-Spiced Perfection

Forecast: One Fast Broad has the route-to-sprint angle we like in addition to returning to the dirt track over which she graduated at first asking in August.  She has the proper style for this extended sprint trip and if she can avoid trouble from the rail the daughter of Decarchy should be along in time.  Spiced Perfection was visually quite pleasing winning the Generous Portion Stakes here in late August while earning a strong number.  The Koriner-trained daughter of Smiling Tiger has improved with each outing and at 5-1 on the morning line may offer some value in the straight pool if you can get that price.  Let’s give One Fast Broad a slight edge on top but use both in rolling exotic play.

 

​​RACE 5: Post 1:45 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 3-Destin; 4-Entrechada; 7-Hard Aces

Forecast: In handicapping this main track marathon, it’s probably best to focus on those that have shown the ability to win at the trip.  Hard Aces certainly exits the strongest race (he was a respectable fifth in the Pacific Classic) and can stay all day, so anything close to his best race may be good enough.  Destin, far back in the Jockey Club Gold Cup in his most recent outing, certainly should improve against this softer group and proved his mettle in a main track marathon when beaten a nose in the 2016 Belmont Stakes.  The veteran mare Estrechada has had recent success on turf but has been primarily a dirt runner throughout her career so she shouldn’t be inconvenienced by the return to the main track.  On pure numbers she rates a legitimate chance and is a “must use” in rolling exotic play.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 2:25 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Happily; 8-Significant Form; 10-September; 11-Rushing Fall

Forecast: The first Breeders’ Cup race of the day is the Juvenile Fillies Turf that offers several possibilities at good prices.  Happily just beat colts for her second straight Group-1 victory on Arc day and returns to face her own sex today while landing the cozy post position two.  She’ll probably settle somewhere in mid-pack and then produce her run; with good racing luck the daughter of Galileo could be along in time.  Her O’Brien-trained stable mate September was best when narrowly missing in a Group-1 straightaway miler at Newmarket in her most recent outing; she displayed an exceptional late turn of foot after extracting herself from traffic in the final stages.  The Irish-bred filly may be pace and traffic dependent over the tight Del Mar turf course but if she can negotiate a clear run she’ll be heard from late.  The Americans are well-represented by a pair of very talented runners from the Brown barn, including the unbeaten Rushing Fall, a recent impressive winner of the Jessamine S.-G3 at Keeneland over soft ground last month.  She’s another with an exciting late turn of foot.  The other Brown trainee, Significant Form, has more tactical speed than the other main contenders and was relentless in her Miss Grillo S.-G3 score at Belmont Park last month.  All four should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll give Happily a slight edge on top.

 

​​​RACE 7: Post 3:05 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 3-Sharp Azteca; 8-Accelerate; 9-Battle of Midway

Forecast: Sharp Azteca looks very much like the controlling speed in the BC Dirt Mile and if he’s allowed to establish the pace with no resistance he’ll be hard to run down.  The son of Freud is extremely fast on pure speed figures and has shown he can carry his speed around two turns, so if the track is playing kind to front-runners the race should be his to win or lose.  Accelerate loves Del Mar (three wins in four starts) and was an excellent third in this race last year.  Though he was in a tad too tough in the Pacific Classic when third over a distance that probably was out of his reach, the Sadler-trained colt did earn a career top Beyer figure in that race.  Battle of Midway has a stakes win over this track and distance on his resume and returns to what we believe is his favorite trip, a flat mile.  The son of Smart Strike continues to impress in the morning and should be set for a major effort, though on pure numbers he’ll have to produce a significant forward move.

​​​​RACE 8: Post 3:50 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-Mendelssohn; 4-Catholic Boy; 6-Masar; 7-James Garfield

Forecast:  The BC Juvenile Turf is an extremely challenging affair, but if you land on the right horse you’ll definitely get paid handsomely.  James Garfield hasn’t been this far but sprints like he’ll run on and recently was a smart winner of the Mill Reef S.-G2 over six furlongs in England.  Clearly a colt with quality, the son of Exceed and Excel has been pointed for this race for a couple of months and reportedly trained very smartly at home before his trip to California.  He’s at least as good as some of the other European shippers that have won this race in the past.  Mendelssohn didn’t have the best of runs in the Dewhurst S.-G1 last month when second to BC Juvenile entrant U S Navy Flag and owns the kind of early speed that could make him very dangerous stretching out to two turns for the first time from his favorable inside draw.  The American-bred son of Scat Daddy adds Lasix, gets his “win rider” Moore, and offers value at 8-1 on the morning line.  Masar, a Group-2 winner and Group-1 placed, has just four prior runs and certainly has room for further improvement.  He made an excellent appearance after arriving just a few days ago from England.  Catholic Boy, perhaps the most intriguing of the American contingent, is perfect in two starts, hails from a high percentage outfit, and will make his presence felt in the final furlong with good racing luck and a decent pace up front.

 

 RACE 9: Post 4:35 PT.  Grade: B+

Single: 5-Elate

Forecast: Rolling exotic players have to find a single somewhere.  To us, Elate fits the bill.  Improving with every start and never better than her Beldame S,-G1 romp (she won by more than eight lengths eased up after being bottled up to the head of the lane), the daughter of Medaglia d’Oro has the proper stalking style in a race that figures to have quicker than normal fractions.  At 3-1 on the morning line she’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.

 

RACE 10: Post 5:17 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-So Sweetiz; 2-Belvoir Bay; 9-Long Hot Summer

Forecast: Fillies and mares sprint five furlongs in an anything-goes turf affair in which nothing would surprise.  So Sweetiz is a perfect one-for-one over this course and distance and is fast enough on figures to win, so let’s put her on top despite the fact that this will be her first start in 13 months.  She has a history of running well fresh and an impressive recent work tab, so from the rail she looks tough either on the lead or as a pace presser.  Belvoir Bay is winless in four starts this year but her form is good and she’s being reunited with “win rider” Prat.  She does her best stalking and pouncing and projects to have that type of trip today.  Long Hot Summer is a two-time winner over the local lawn and seems clearly the most dangerous of the closers.

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (Del Mar) for Friday, November 3, 2017

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