Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (GP, SA) for Jan. 20, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.


Friday, January 20, 2017

RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B

Single: 6-My Uncle Al

There will be no turf racing today and the main track will be wet fast/sloppy/muddy. My Uncle Al has some main track form and shouldn’t be inconvenienced by the off track, so we’ll put him on top in a race that may very well be reduced by late scratches.

​​RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: X

Single: 1-Spooky Woods

Spooky Woods is 4/5 on the morning line and looks it on form. She was a strong runner-up over a wet fast surface here last month while earning a career top speed figure and has trained well since. She’s a logical short-priced rolling exotic single.

RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: X

Single: 3-Elwood J

The Pick-6 begins with the third race, a five-runner state-bred entry level allowance sprint for 3-year-olds. Elwood J, freshened since November and with rising speed figures, should be too quick for this band but is 6/5 on the morning line and thus unplayable other than that as a no-value rolling exotic single.

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: C

Use: 2-Carlot Cowboy; 7-Redneck Crazy

Restricted $10,000 claimers sprint six furlongs in the fourth race. It’s a treacherous affair even without the off track being factored in. Redneck Crazy may be as good as any; the Gary Sherlock-trained colt drops to his lowest level and is a fit on numbers. Carlot Cowboy, a Phoenix shipper, had a sharp blowout five days ago and seems primed for a big effort off the bench. He’s a route-to-sprint play for a clever outfit. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics but without any real degree of confidence.

RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 6-Q. T.’s Tribute; 9-Bottle Service; 10-Grecian Fire

This race is off the turf, and there is a high likelihood of several late scratches. We liked the debut of Bottle Service, though it came on turf; however, he does have a pedigree that suggests he’ll handle a wet track if given the chance. Q. T.’s Tribute has some decent main track form and is another that shouldn’t be bothered by an off track. Grecian Fire was a reasonable third in his debut at Los Alamitos while earning an okay number and this Jerry Hollendorfer-trained gelding has a right to produce a forward move. These are the three we’ll consider in rolling exotic play though as of this writing we’re not sure if any of the three will actually remain in the race.

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 3-Ketos; 5-Mr. Pucci; 8-Junior Gilliam

Junior Gilliam has the route-to-sprint angle that we like and that, combined with the class drop, makes him very intriguing in this restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claiming sprint. He’s reunited with Flavien Prat, who won on him over this track and distance last year. If the son of Tribal Rule handles the going, look out. Mr. Pucci shows up for a tag for the first time and seems likely to improve; the Hollendorfer-trained five-year-old is lightly raced with back numbers that would win if repeated; however, he’s had his problems and his recent comeback wasn’t inspiring. Ketos crushed a maiden claiming field at Del Mar in December but drops $25,000 in claiming value today and has a big gap in his recent work pattern, so he must have problems. However, if the John Sadler-trained horse has at least one good one left in him he certainly can win.

​​RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 3-T. Montana; 8-Classic Ruler; 10-Who Cares

Classic Ruler, first off the claim for Hollendorfer following a solid maiden $50,000 score, stretches out and is protected in a starter’s allowance race, so we like his pattern from a barn that has excellent stats with both angles. The son of Tribal Rule makes a major switch to Prat and should be on or near the lead throughout, assuming he handles the going. Who Cares won over a wet fast track at Los Alamitos in fast time while earning a nice figure in what was just his second career start. He’s protected by trainer Jeff Mullins and certainly is a strong threat despite the extreme outside draw. T. Montana has speed figures that are gradually rising and is proven at the trip. His pedigree suggests he’ll move up on a wet track so the son of Hard Spun is a “must use” in rolling exotic play.

​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade:  B

Use: 6-Tavasco Road; 11-Shades Play

The finale is an abbreviated sprint for $30,000 maiden claiming 3-year-olds. Debuting Tavasco Road has done all of his preparatory work up north over the all-weather surface at Golden Gate Fields and looks like a live item for a barn that has strong stats with first timers. He could be a something in a nothing race so we’ll put him on top and hope to get close to his morning line of 5-1. Shades Play is the best of the known element and has the kind of early speed that makes him dangerous over a wet surface. He’ll pop and go from his outside draw and try to take this field as far as he can.


Friday, January 20, 2017

​RACE 1: Post 12:35 ET. Grade: B

Use: 2-Motion’s First; 3-Vintners Special


​​RACE 2: Post 1:04 ET. Grade: B

Use: 1-Dealer’s Girl; 2-There Goes Bella


RACE 3: Post 1:33 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Ballagh Rocks; 3-March; 5-Saham


​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:02 ET. Grade: X

Single: 5-Worth Avenue


​RACE 5: Post 2:32 ET. Grade: B

Use: 2-Slam; 3-Tommy’s Top Cat

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:02 ET. Grade: X

Single: 5-Singleton


​​RACE 7: Post 3:32 ET.  Grade: B+

Use: 2-Snicker; 4-Tu Exageres; 7-Alexander David

​​​RACE 8: Post 4:02 ET.  Grade:  C+

Use: 1-Liana Star; 6-Venezuelan Beauty; 10-Bull Empress

RACE 9: Post 4:03 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 5-Cammack; 9-Keystoneforvictory

RACE 10: Post: 4:34 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 1-Stone Heart; 3-Olimpico; 4-Oscarific

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (GP, SA) for Jan. 20, 2017

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