Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (GP, SA) for March 23, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.


Thursday, March 23, 2017

RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 5-Formulate; 6-Bedeviled

Bedeviled was overmatched in a much tougher first-level allowance turf event just nine days ago but certainly isn’t today in this restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claiming turf miler.  The short rest notwithstanding, the Keith Desormeaux-trained colt looks properly spotted for a major effort and has back numbers that are more than good enough to win in this league.  We’ll also toss in Formulate, who likewise chased tougher in his most recent outing and seems sure to improve with the class drop.  The son of Malibu Moon should be heard from late with the switch to Rafael Bejarano.


​​​RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 3-Bar Scene; 4-Herunbridledpower

Herunbridledpower was nailed in the final jump when missing as the favorite in a $16,000 sprint earlier this month and today makes her first start for new trainer Robertino Diodoro (24% with a flat-bet profit with this angle) while confidently being jumped to state-bred first-level allowance company.  Despite the class hike she really doesn’t have to improve much to win, and with Edwin Maldonado staying aboard she projects to be positioned in a perfect pace-stalking spot.  Bar Scene is the one to catch, though at this extended sprint distance the daughter of Rocky Bar may be suspect in the final sixteenth of a mile.  Her numbers have risen with each outing and jockey Martin Pedroza knows her well, so if she can shake loose early without pressure she might be able to hang on.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring Herunbridledpower on top.


​​RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 2-Hitters Park; 9-Papa Royale

Hitters Park is a fit on speed figures, exits a tough race for the level, and looks primed to graduate for leading trainer Peter Miller. In a field without much known early zip, he could easily inherit the role as the controlling speed. Papa Royale may be the most dangerous of the closers and is worth using as a back-up or a saver in rolling exotic play. However, strong preference on top goes to Hitters Park.


​​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 5-Pavelski; 6-Kopitar

Trainer Phil D’Amato holds the aces in this downhill turf sprint for maiden sophomores. Kopitar flashed good ability in his debut over this course and distance earlier this month, winding up a willing third after finishing with good energy. He’s very likely to produce a strong forward move with that effort behind him. Pavelski, the “other” D’Amato in the field, has the route-to-sprint angle we like and is exiting a series of very strong, productive races. He’ll be running on strongly through the lane. We’ll prefer Kopitar on top but use both in our rolling exotics.


RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 5-Bitte; 6-Will Tell

Will Tell failed at even money when losing his punch in a starter’s allowance mile event last month but he returns to sprinting today and should regain his best form. Anything close to his impressive maiden claiming win two runs back figures to put him in the winner’s circle. Bitte isn’t quite as fast on speed figures as Will Tell but is improving and dangerous after easily handling a maiden $30,000 field last month. He’s protected in his first start for new trainer Bob Hess in a sign of confidence and gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Solis. Preferences goes to Will Tell but you should include both in rolling exotic play.


​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: C+

4-Rockantharos; 5-Easter Fever

Rockantharos just won a $25,000 non-winners of two event in game style and today surfaces for $8,000, not exactly a healthy pattern. However, high-percentage trainer Miller runs his stock where they can win, and according to her speed figures, this is where this daughter of Kantharos belongs. She seems likely to score again if she has at least one good one left in her. Easter Fever is another class dropper that may have some issues, but she has some back form that charts well with these and she’s making her second start off a layoff for trainer Ron Ellis, whose stats with this angle are off the charts. First or second in six of 10 career starts over the Santa Anita main track, the daughter of Stormin Fever is the one to fear most.


RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 1-September Stars; 6-Radiantly; 7-Allowances

September Stars has put together a strong series of workouts leading up to her U.S. debut for Paddy Gallagher and though nothing more than useful in Europe as a 3-year-old she could easily be a better type in the States, where she will race with Lasix. The daughter of Sea the Stars has tactical speed and should be forwardly placed throughout. Radiantly ran quite well in her local debut, finishing well but too late when second in a similar affair last month. She shortens up a furlong today and should benefit from a quicker early pace. Allowances is an intriguing French import from the Jim Cassidy barn. The lightly-raced daughter of Street Sense has impressed the local clockers and appears fit enough to fire a big shot in her U.S. bow. Let’s use all three in our rolling exotics and then press a bit keying September Stars on top.


​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: B

Single: 7-Dan’s Irish Cop

Dan’s Irish Cop has done some good work in the a.m. for trainer Tim Yakteen and catches a modest group of maiden claimers for her racing debut. She’s bred to be quick, seems fit, and looks like a live item under Tyler Baze. In a race in which the known doesn’t inspire, let’s go with a fresh as a straight play and rolling exotic single and hope to get close to her morning line odds of 6-1.




Thursday, March 23, 2017


​RACE 1: Post 12:35 ET. Grade: B

Use: 1-Bionetti’s Choice; 2-O. K. Kay; 5-Greatreviews


​​RACE 2: Post 1:04 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Lady Greatness; 4-Winners Expedition; 7-Apella’s Ball

RACE 3: Post 1:33 ET. Grade: C

Use: 2-Yes Mongolia; 5-Love Flute; 6-Lapantalones Fance

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:02 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 2-Luz Mimi; 5-Exchnaging Secrets; 6-Sweet Parang

​RACE 5: Post 2:35 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 4-Our Independence; 6-Contractor Jak

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:02 ET. Grade: B

Use: 2-Eloy Rod; 9-Papacho

​​RACE 7: Post 3:32 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 4-Eva London; 5-Saved by the Swell; 6-Queen Jill


​​​RACE 8: Post 4:02 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 5-Santini; 6-Apache Brave; 8-Mongo Nation

RACE 9: Post 4:32 ET.  Grade: C

Use: 1-Concealedwithakiss; 4-Apologynotaccepted; 5-Meadow Rose

RACE 10: Post: 5:02 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 3-Pebble Road; 5-Anthony Lass



Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (GP, SA) for March 23, 2017

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