Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (GP, SA) for March 5, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.


Sunday, March 5, 2017

RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B

Single: 6-Royal F J

Old-timer Royal F J gets a great spot to return to the winner’s circle in this $12,500 claiming sprint. The Jack Carava-trained gelding lands the cozy outside post in career start number 94 and should draft into a perfect pace-stalking position. His recent numbers are solid, so in a below par field for the level we’ll make him a straight play and rolling exotic candidate at 3-1 on the morning line.


​​​RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 8-Fritz Johansen; 9-Brandothebartender

The second race is a first-level turf miler with two main contenders.   Brandothebartender earned a career top speed figure when winning a state-bred affair over this course and distance last time out and seems quite capable of repeating in open company. The son of Tribal Rule needs patient handling and can really turn it on late, so we’ll put him on top. Fritz Johansen is back on turf and will be hard to beat with a repeat of his race before last. The Unusual Heat gelding has won half of his six career starts over the local lawn and has an excellent stalking style that usually keeps him free of trouble.


​​RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Sensitively; 5-Constellation

Sensitively is brilliantly fast when she’s on top of game, and after being freshened since August the daughter of Street Sense appears to be training like her old self. A winner of four of six over this main track, she seems likely to control this race from start to finish. Constellation, winner of the Gr. 1 La Brea Stakes on opening day in late December, has held her edge in the a.m. in the interim for Jerry Hollendorfer and is strictly the one to beat. We’ll double the race in our rolling exotics while preferring Sensitively on top.


​​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 5-Hard Arch; 6-Harrovian

Hard Arch seems to have found the proper spot to earn his diploma in this maiden $75,000 middle distance affair for 3-year-olds. Third in both of his local outings since being sent west from Florida, the Vladimir Cerin-trained colt is bred to handle two-turns and gets his first chance to stretch out while switching to Kent Desormeaux. The barn has superior stats with the sprint-to-route angle. Harrovian earned an okay number when a distant second in a similar event last month and retains Flavien Prat. With another forward move today, the son of Harlan’s Holiday could make some noise from off the pace. Both should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll have a few extra tickets keying Hard Arch on top.

RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 2-Hill Croome; 6-Caray

The known element doesn’t rally inspire so let’s go with a fresh face in this maiden $50,000 claiming sprint for 3-year-olds. Hill Croome has looked fairly decent in the a.m. for trainer Jeff Metz and should be plenty fit for a major effort first time out of the box. There appears to be plenty of value at or near his morning line of 6-1. Caray, a solid runner-up in a similar high priced maiden claimer last month, seems the best of the known element and is the likely choice and one to beat. Both should be used in you rolling exotics.


​​​RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 2-Yellow Bonnet; 4-Domestic Vintage; 9-Mandy D

The sixth race is an open affair on turf for maiden fillies and mares. Let’s go for a price and put the second-time starter Mandy D. on top. The daughter of Cape Blanco closed a gap after a slow start in an off-the-turf abbreviated sprint in her debut last November at Del Mar and seems certain to improve a bunch with that effort behind her and with more ground to work with. She seems better than her 12-1 morning line gives her credit for. Yellow Bonnet, in the money in her last three, should be close up throughout from her inside post position and really won’t have to improve much to win. Domestic Vintage has been somewhat trouble prone in her three race career but continues to look good in the morning for Neil Drysdale and with good racing luck should be heard from in the final furlong.


RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 2-Geologist; 3-Sense of Glory

Sense of Glory adds blinkers, returns to the main track and remains protected by trainer Ron Ellis in this starter’s allowance affair over a mile. He continues to train like a gelding with more to give, and we’re expecting the son of Street Sense to be within striking range throughout. Geologist stretches out again, is a strong fit on speed figures and switches to Desormeaux. The son of Medaglia d’Oro clearly is the one to fear most. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring Sense of Glory on top.

​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade:  B

Use: 2-Junior Gilliam; 6-Coils Gold

Junior Gilliam was sent up north for easy pickings and captured a starter’s allowance event last month. He returns to his home base while moving into state-bred first level allowance company and seems quite capable of scoring right back. The son of Tribal Settle needs patient handling and should get it from Prat. Coils Gold was very impressive breaking his maiden at first asking in November at Del Mar but then was far back when sent a distance of ground in the Cal Cup Derby. Back sprinting where he belongs and catching a softer group today, the Bob Baffert-trained colt should have every chance to rebound. Let’s prefer Junior Gilliam on top but use both in rolling exotic play.


​​RACE 9: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 2-Space Cadet; 3-Well Caught; 8-Golden Light

The finale is a competitive starter’s allowance turf miler for fillies and mares and requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Space Cadet, a solid third vs. similar in her most recent outing, should run at least as well today and perhaps a bit better. She likes to settle and produce a run and will be doing her best work in the final furlong under Desormeaux. Well Caught is protected today after finishing a strong second in a $25,000 claimer over this course in mid-February. On pure numbers she’s a major player and with only seven career starts the Irish-bred filly has plenty of room for development. Golden Light just missed by a head in a similar event over this course and distance last month after establishing a comfortable pace; she has won in a stalking manner in the past and that’s probably the kind of trip she can expect to have today. Fresh off a career top speed figure, the Jim Cassidy-trained mare is a “must use.”




Sunday, March 5, 2017


​RACE 1: Post 12:00 ET. Grade: B

Use: 1-Seuss; 5-Star Contender


​​RACE 2: Post 12:30 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Hy Dandy; 3-Into the Future; 6-Fletcher is Golden


RACE 3: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: C

Use: 3-Mai Ty One On; 4-Do Yahwanna Salsa; 6-Alex Again

​​​RACE 4: Post: 1:30 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Yes Darlin; 7-I Want Mo


​RACE 5: Post 2:00 ET. Grade: B

Use: 1-Tiz Bobby; 2-Fenerbahce

​​​RACE 6: Post 2:30 ET. Grade: X

Single: 2-Salty

​​RACE 7: Post 3:01 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 5-Dreamingofosealla; 6-Love Again; 8-Mary Sue Weloveyou


​​​RACE 8: Post 3:32 ET.  Grade:  B

Use: 4-Bernadiva; 6-Abbreviate

RACE 9: Post 4:03 ET.  Grade: B+

Single: 4-Prince Vincenzo

RACE 10: Post: 4:34 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 3-Mikes Muscle Man; 10-El Gran Noel


RACE 11: Post: 5:05 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 3-Diaz; 5-Eminent Force; 7-Laythatpistoldown


RACE 12: Post: 5:35 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 5-Thinking of Mom; 8-On a Star


RACE 13: Post: 6:05 ET.  Grade: C

Use: 8-Graphite Strike; 9-Contractor Jak; 11-Policy Portfolio




Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (GP, SA) for March 5, 2017

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