The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
Sunday, November 6, 2016
RACE 1: Post 12:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Bona Fide Image; 4-Lucky Dolly
Closing day begins with a maiden claiming state-bred abbreviated sprint for juvenile fillies. Bona Fide Image overcame a rough start to finished steadily in a better-than-looked fourth in her debut, has trained well since, and seems very likely to produce a forward move for Spawr. The daughter of Southern Image retains Baze and is facing a below par field for the level. Lucky Dolly is the 9/5 morning line favorite primarily because she’s exiting a straight maiden affair at Los Alamitos, but her numbers are modest and she seems like an underlay at that price. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics but at 4-1 on the morning line ‘Image appears to offer more value so we’ll put her on top.
RACE 2: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Diva La Mousse; 10-True Testament; 12-Yuvetsi
Juvenile maiden fillies sprint down the hill in the second race, a fairly wide open affair that requires a bit of a spread. Diva La Mousse ran well under similar conditions last month, winding up a strong second after being worn down close home. If she has even a modest forward move in her, the Baffert-trained filly may earn her diploma. True Testament has the pedigree to move up on grass and gets blinkers and Rosario, so if she runs back to her debut effort at Los Alamitos she should be right there. The daughter of Hansen continues to impress in the morning for Hollendorfer. Yuvetsi, beaten a neck in her debut over this course and distance despite a wide trip, seems certain to improve with experience for Sadler and should have every chance from her comfortable outside draw. The daughter of Bodemeister retains Van Dyke and has worked nicely since raced.
RACE 3: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 7-Hayley’s Comment; 10-Trixie Topper
Bottom-rung maiden claiming fillies and mares sprint six and one-half furlongs in the third race. Hayley’s Comment drops to her lowest level ever and may have found her friends. The Mulhall-trained filly has numbers that fit and switches to Bejarano, so we’ll put her on top pretty much by default. Trixie Topper, second at this level over a mile last month, shortens in trip, has numbers that make her a contender and should have every chance from her comfortable outside draw. Let’s try to get by using these two with preference on top to Hayley’s Comment.
RACE 4: Post: 1:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Blanket of Ice; 8-Lamu
The fourth race is a restricted (nw-2) $12,500 claiming miler with little in it. Blanket of Ice takes a realistic drop in class while stretching out again and has numbers that are good enough to win. He sports a healthy work pattern for Puype, lands a good inside post, and should have every chance to return to winning form. Lamu finished second in a similar affair here last month and probably won’t have to improve much to win; however his overall record (1-for-16) and his form over the Santa Anita main track (winless in seven starts) doesn’t really inspire confidence. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and then have extra tickets keying Blanket of Ice on top.
RACE 5: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Sleepwalker; 5-Nuke Laloosh; 8-Alright Alright
A fair group of restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claiming sprinters are featured in the fifth race, an open affair requiring a spread. Nuke Laloosh, a sharp runner-up at this level over seven eighths last month, shortens to five and one-half furlongs today and figures in the battle throughout. He graduated at this abbreviated trip during the Del Mar meeting and has numbers that make him a major player. Sleepwalker, first off the claim for Diodoro (20%, flat-bet profit), finished third as the favorite in a similar event last month but has come back to work well and could perk up for his new outfit. The rail is of some concern for a gelding that lacks early speed, but his speed figures give him a strong look, so we’ll use him. Alright Alright shows up in a claimer for the first time and clearly has his issues, but the once promising son of Munnings has numbers that fit and has won on this main track in the past. If he has a good one left, he’ll be right there.
RACE 6: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B+
Zindaya is a New York shipper in the Chad Brown barn with form in the East that looks good enough to win today’s feature, the Goldikova S.-G2 for fillies and mares over a mile on turf. The daughter of More Than Ready has excellent tactical speed, powerful speed figures, and should be on or near the lead throughout in a field that doesn’t appear to have much early speed in it. She’s 2-1 on the morning line and looks it, so let’s make her a straight play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 7: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Eleutheros; 5-Antioch; 10-Royal Mo
This appears to be a better-than-par maiden race and should take a decent colt to win it. Eleutheros finished second to next-out winner Hot Sean in a promising debut here last month and if he can produce a forward move he’ll be tough to beat today. The son of Elusive Quality continues to look sharp in the a.m. for Hollendorfer and switches to Bejarano. Antioch, in the money in both of his starts at Del Mar, has plenty of room to improve for Mandella and a sharp half mile in 47 seconds flat earlier this week should have him on edge. Royal Mo, a strong runner-up in his only outing at Del Mar in August, returns for Shirreffs and has worked like he’s fit and ready. The son of Uncle Mo has plenty of zip and should be on or near the lead throughout.
RACE 8: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 9-Fantasy of Luck; 10-Bad Ju Ju
Fantasy of Luck just missed at 4/5 in a similar spot last month, going down by a head in a solid effort for the level. She continues to looks quite sharp in the morning for Baffert and is overdue for return to the winner’s circle. Drawn well outside and retaining Bejarano, the daughter of Lucky Pulpit should have no excuses today. Bad Ju Ju is a first-off-the-claim for Miller (32% with a strong flat-bet profit with this angle) and has back numbers that put her in the hunt. At 5-1 on the morning line she’s worth tossing in. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Fantasy of Luck.
RACE 9: Post 5:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 8-Trojan Nation; 9-Air Pocket; 10-Site Read
The finale is a first-level 10 furlong turf affair that looks fairly contentious. Site Read is an interesting New York invader in the Mike McCarthy barn and has trained nicely for his local bow. He has numbers that fit, attracts Prat, and should enjoy the extra distance. We’ll put him on top at 6-1 on the morning line. Trojan Nation was overmatched in the Del Mar Derby but isn’t today; the Gallagher-trained colt fits with these off his nice maiden score going long on the lawn two races back and his recent work tab indicates the son of Street Cry is fit and ready. Air Pocket handled a much softer restricted claiming field in his comeback last month and is protected in his first start for new trainer DeLeon. The son of Smart Strike probably is better on turf, so if he moves forward at all he can be a strong contender right back.