Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for Oct. 14, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Saturday, October 14, 2017

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RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: C+

Use1-Sixes; 4-Clifton Beach

Forecast: Clifton Beach isn’t one to trust – he’s a 10-race maiden and has failed four times as the favorite – but at this level against this group he almost has to win, at least on paper. The Sadler-trained colt boasts a significant edge on speed figures and should be on or near the lead throughout. But at 9/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower, the son of Langfuhr hardly offers any value. Sixes is slower on numbers than ‘Beach but is steadily improving and should be a pace factor from the rail. He’s worth using on a ticket or two in rolling exotic play.

 

​​RACE 2: Post 12:59 PT. Grade: A-

Single: 6-Jump the Tracks

Forecast: Jump the Tracks ran better than the line will show when fourth at 25-1 in his debut last month at Del Mar and come back to train extremely well since that race, giving every indication that a significant forward move is in the cards. The Mullins-trained colt has the style to enjoy this extended sprint trip, and if he leaves with his field this time the son of Desert Code should be within range, ready to strike, when it matters the most. At 6-1 on the morning line he offers extreme value, so let’s make him a strong straight play and rolling exotic single.

 

​RACE 3: Post 1:29 PT. Grade: B

Use: 4-Braddock; 6-Make It a Triple

Forecast: Braddock exits a pair of strong races at Del Mar and even his maiden claiming win three races back over this track charts very nicely in this spot. The Hollendorfer-trained colt should enjoy a fairly soft pace scenario at this seven furlong trip and is strictly the one to beat at 9/5 on the morning line. Make It a Triple makes is a two-horse race. He, too, has been chasing tougher lately and this class drop for starter’s allowance to $25,000 restricted claiming seems the proper move. In a race without a whole lot of early zip, the Machowsky-trained gelding might inherit the role as the controlling speed.

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 1-Radio Silence; 4-Ample Sufficiency

Forecast: We’ll try to survive and advance using just two in the fourth race, an entry-level turf miler that marks the U.S. debut of Radio Silence. The 3-year-old son of War Front removes blinkers, adds Lasix, lands Prat, and projects to enjoy an ideal ground-saving trip from the rail. Group-placed in Ireland as a two-year-old but non-competitive in three starts this year, the former $675,000 two-year-old in training buy makes his first start for Baltas and seems likely to regain his best form. His local workouts indicate he’s fit and ready. Ample Sufficiency is progressing nicely with acclimation for Blacker; he’s another Irish import with ability and ran his best race to date when a fast-closing third in a strong race for the level at Del Mar last month. With a decent pace up front and clear room to rally the son of English Channel will be heard from in the final furlong.

 

​RACE 5: Post 2:29 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 2-Topgallant; 5-Kinsale Warrior

Forecast: This bottom-rung maiden claimer looks a tad treacherous, so best advice is to use as many as you can afford to. Small ticket player may try to get by using just the two listed above. Topgallant drops to the bottom, has speed figures that fit, and should improve considerably in this league. The Hendricks-trained gelding sports a healthy work pattern since his last race and really won’t have to improve much to beat this group. Kinsale Warrior closed a gap without threatening in his sprint debut on turf debut vs. maiden $50,000 foes last month and should benefit considerably with the class drop, the switch to the main track, and with that race under his belt. At 6-1 on the morning line he’s worth tossing in.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:02 PT. Grade: B

Use: 4-Long Hot Summer; 5-Miss Sunset; 8-Moonless Sky

Forecast: Miss Sunset seeks her third straight win and seems well-placed to continue her excellent form, though this field is tougher than the two that she handled so convincingly at Del Mar. The daughter of Into Mischief has won over this course in the past, catches a field without a whole lot of early speed and should be on or near the lead throughout. With regular rider Smith in Kentucky today, hot-riding Stevens picks up the mount. Moonless Sky is a perfect four-for-four over the Santa Anita turf course and should have no difficulty with this turn back from a series of two-turn races. She packs a potent late kick and with good racing luck will be difficult to contain in the final furlong. Long Hot Summer is a two-time winner over the local lawn and always with some pace up front and racing room in the lane. She switches to Prat, and since her best race puts her right there we’ll include her in our rolling exotic play.

 

​​RACE 7: Post 3:34 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-Indavidualist; 7-Pick One

Forecast: This restricted (nw-2) $12,500 claiming sprint doesn’t have a whole lot in it, so we’ll use two and hope that’s enough. Pick One tackles easier while trying to find his proper level and may have finally done so; the Carava-trained gelding likes to settle and produce a late run and should have every chance to tag the speed at this six and one-half furlong distance. On pure numbers he beats this field unless Indavidualist remembers how he used to do it. The Miller-trained gelding removes blinkers, plummets from the allowance ranks, returns to the surface over which he broke his maiden and switches to Elliott. He should be a strong factor throughout if he leaves cleanly from the rail.

​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:06 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 2-Wild About Deb; 4-Camino de Estrella

Forecast: Wild About Deb, once highly-regarded but completely off form in a pair of 2017 outings, returns to this original trainer (D’Amato) for his first outing since June and could easily snap back under these conditions. Third to Connect and Gun Runner in last year’s Pennsylvania Derby, the son of Eskendereya has trained nicely for his return, lands a comfortable inside post, and his reunited with “win rider” Pereira. We like him on top at 7/2 on the morning line but will also include in our rolling exotics the improving Camino de Estrella, a sharp maiden winner at Los Alamitos with a career top speed figure last month and with a good series of workouts since. At 8-1 on the morning line and with the switch to Prat, the Yakteen-trained colt may be the one to fear most.

 

RACE 9: Post 4:38 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 1-Arunachala; 8-Battleground State; 10-Rolling Shadow

Forecast: This is a competitive maiden special weight state-bred field of fillies and mares meeting over a mile on turf. We’ll use three but there are others that might catch your eye. Drysdale has two bullets to fire topped by Rolling Shadow, a progressive daughter of Kafwain coming off a solid third place performance vs. similar at Del Mar last month. She retains Roman, sports a bullet five furlong workout over the training track last week, and should draft into a good mid-pack position. Her stable mate, Battleground State, has a similar pattern and also gives every indication of improving with experience. The daughter of Unusual Heat switches to Prat and with another forward move will be right there. Arunachala had sprint prep at Del Mar in late August and today should get more serious with a stretch out in trip. From her rail post the daughter of Acclamation should be forwardly placed and have every chance.

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for Oct. 14, 2017

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