Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for Oct. 15, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Sunday, October 15, 2017

​RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 3-Giant Influence; 4-Camino Del Paraiso; 5-My Italian Bobbo

Forecast: The Sunday opener is a contentious second-level allowance event over nine furlongs on turf.  We can see any one of three winning, so we’ll spread in rolling exotic play.  My Italian Bobbo knows how to win photo finishes and should be in the picture again while seeking his third straight score.  His numbers are rising, Nakatani fits him like a glove, and with only nine career starts the 5-year-old son of Papa Clem likely has further improvement in him.  Camino Del Paraiso, runner-up in his last pair in tough Northern California company, looks dangerous from off the pace under Desormeaux.  Giant Influence is unproven on turf but otherwise fits.  He’s actually bred to improve on grass (Giant’s Causeway) and may be a better type than given credit for.

 

​​RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Tiki Bar Logic; 8-Dadlani

Forecast: Dadlani finished with interest to be second in a similar spot at Los Alamitos in her debut and would seem to have far more upside then most of the others in this modest affair.  With any kind of forward move, the Powell-trained filly should be along in time.  Tiki Bar Logic is an eight-race maiden and perhaps not one to trust, but she’s dropping to the bottom for the first time and a repeat of her race-before-last – and the strong speed figure she earned when finishing second – makes her strictly the one to beat.  Both should be included in rolling exotic play.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 5-Mapit; 6-Ms Bad Behavior

Forecast: Maiden special weight two-year-old fillies sprint six and one-half furlongs in the third race. Ms Bad Behavior, in the money in both of her starts with solid numbers in races that have proven to be quite productive, is the logical top pick, albeit at a short price.  She was almost six clear of the rest when runner-up to Alluring Star, who came out of the race to hit the board in the Chandelier Stakes –G1.  Her first race – a close third to subsequent Grade-1 placed Piedi Bianchi – was excellent as well.  Today should be her day.  Mapit might be worth tossing in on a ticket or two; the daughter of Tapit exits races won by Moonshine Memories (the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies favorite) and the promising Just a Smidge and likely will stick around a lot longer against this field.

 

​​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 3-Run Like Rhett; 9-Alaskan Son; 10-Uber Star

Forecast: This is a decent starter’s allowance turf affair that could go in a number of different ways but Run Like Rhett should be suited by the race flow so we’ll put him on top.  The Afleet Alex gelding usually is in the thick of things and both of his turf efforts at Del Mar were quite good.  Baze knows him well and should have him forwardly placed in a race that projects to be slowly run early.  Alaskan Son often is a late threat and could be heard from in the final furlong.  The speed figure he earned two races back (fifth, beaten less than a lengths) puts him in the picture.  Uber Star is drawn farther out than we’d prefer but his only career win came over this turf course and his recent form is solid.  He’ll need some help up front but with a decent pace to chase he’ll be a threat in the final furlong.

​RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: X

Single: 6-Mourinho

Forecast: Mourinho annihilated a good group of maidens in his debut last month, and although he’s back a little quicker than we’d prefer the son of Super Saver should be a short price to repeat in this overnight stakes for juveniles.  Drawn comfortably outside, the Baffert-trained colt can pop and go or stalk and pounce.  He’s a no value but logical rolling exotic single.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 3-Banze No Oeste; 7-Skelton Pass

Forecast: Skelton Pass is a specialist – he’s a turf sprinter with the proper style for this Hillside Course – and should be primed for a major effort in this $25,000 claimer for older horses.  The Glatt-trained gelding has never raced this cheaply but the class drop is warranted and there’s nothing wrong with the switch to Gonzalez, one of this stable’s go-to riders.  Banze No Oeste is a two-time winner over the Santa Anita turf course and would seem to be the most dangerous of the closing types.  We’ll prefer Skelton Pass on top but use both in our rolling exotics.

​​RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: B+

Single: 5-Out of Patience

Forecast: Out of Patience, first off the claim for Hollendorfer (a strong 22% with this angle), is protected in this starter’s handicap in a sign of confidence and always has loved the Santa Anita main track (he’s a career 5-for-15).  Fresh from a sharp, highly-rated score at Del Mar last month, the veteran gelding retains Talamo and shows a quick half mile gate drill a week ago to have him on edge.  While it would appear that this five and one-half furlong distance might be too sharp for him, we’re thinking that the veteran gelding will find a way to produce the last run.  Let’s make him a straight play and rolling exotic single.

​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 1-Roman Tizzy; 7-South Texas Lingo

Forecast:  Bottom rung sprinters meet at a mile on the main track in the eighth race.  Roman Tizzy should enjoy an ideal ground-saving trip from the rail and drops for the money run while returning to his preferred track.  Cerin has been hot this meeting and has this gelding right where he belongs.  South Texas Lingo is another that is realistically spotted; the Lone Star shipper was pitched too high in a pair of turf races at Del Mar but is back on dirt today and tackling a considerably easier group.  Let’s use both in our rolling exotics while preferring Roman Tizzy on top.

 

​RACE 9: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-Pantsonfire; 4-No Cats Allowed; 7-Sasini

Forecast: The nightcap is a grass grab bag for maiden fillies and mares.  Anything goes.  Sasini is an interesting English invader from the Callaghan barn (excellent with these first-off-the-plane shippers) and looks to have this daughter of Fastnet Rock ready for a top effort.  In the frame twice in solid company overseas, she gets Lasix, blinkers, and Prat and shows a healthy series of works that should have her fit and ready.  No Cats Allowed has numbers back East that chart well here and she exits a live race at Saratoga.  The daughter of Kitten’s Joy looks dangerous from off the pace.  Pantsonfire flashed a bit of promise at Del Mar in a pair of outings since being imported from Ireland and most likely has plenty of improvement in her.  She missed as the favorite vs. similar in her last race but two runs back she flew home under Nakatani and is reunited with that top turf rider today.

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for Oct. 15, 2017

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