Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for October 15, 2016

USER GUIDELINES

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

 

 

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.  

B=Solid Play.  

C=Least preferred, or pass.  

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

 

BELMONT PARK

​Saturday, October 15, 2016​

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RACE 1: Post: 12:55 ET. Grade: B

Use: 1-Newman; 6-You're to Blame

RACE 2: Post 1:28 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 3-Ima Wildcat; 6-Cinder Block; 8-Gran the Man

RACE 3: Post 2:01 ET. Grade: B+

Single: 2-Theory

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RACE 4: Post 2:34 ET. Grade: C

Use: 1-Peculiar Sensation; 10-Southern Union; 12-Irish Filibuster

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RACE 5: Post 3:07 ET. Grade: C

Use: 5-Made of Steel; 8-Kenyan; 10-Mr Curiosity

RACE 6: Post 3:40 ET. Grade: B

Use: 5-Hotersral; 6-Tombelaine; 10-Light the Night

RACE 7: Post 4:13 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 4-Easy Way Out; 6-Stonecoldfox

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RACE 8: Post 4:46 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 4-Ancient Secret; 5-Ultra Brat; 9-Stella Rose

RACE 9: Post 5:19 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 6-Space Oddity; 7-Late Night Mark

 

 

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​SANTA ANITA 

​Saturday, October 15, 2016

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RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 7-Elkhorn Crown; 8-Monterey Shale

 

The Saturday opener, a state-bred maiden special weight turf miler, doesn’t have a whole lot in it, so Monterey Shale probably deserves a chance to make amends for his disappointing fifth place performance in a similar race at Del Mar in mid-August. Freshened, training well, adding blinkers and retaining Bejarano, the Gaines-trained gelding has a strong look with a repeat of his race-before-last, a solid runner-up effort over this course and distance. Elkhorn Crown woke up at 53-1 and finished a strong third, beaten less than a length, while earning a career top figure in a maiden special weight turf affair at Del Mar in early September. He’s trained well since – witness the bullet half mile workout six days ago – and with another forward move should be a major player throughout. Let’s double the race in our rolling exotics while giving Monterey Shale a very slight edge on top.

 

 

RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 4-Princess Karen; 6-Sandy’s Surprise

 

Princess Karen has been burning up the track in a.m. drills leading up to her racing debut and the Bonde-trained filly catches a below par field of maiden juvenile fillies in this seven furlong sprint. The barn has solid stats with first-time starters, so we’ll put this daughter of Stay Thirsty on top. Sandy’s Surprise finished a promising third in her debut in a race that produced the one-two finishers in the Del Mar Debutante. However, the daughter of Drosselmeyer has a spotty work tab since that late July outing, so her fitness and condition must be questioned. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics but then press with extra tickets keying Princess Karen.

 

 

RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 2-Long Hot Summer; 3-Enola Gray

 

D’Amato has the goods here with two major contenders among the five entrants. Long Hot Summer has previous winning form down the tricky hillside course, comes here razor sharp from Del Mar, and always has been a thoroughly genuine and consistent sprinter. She’ll be bearing down in the final furlong. Stablemate Enola Gray is the quicker of the two and if she can shake loose early without pressure, the daughter of Grazen might be hard to catch. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics in a race that we’ll otherwise pass.

 

 

​​RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT. Grade: C

Use: 3-Out of Patience; 4-Winning Causeway; 6-Perfect Set

 

The Pick-6 begins in the fourth race, a competitive middle distance $16,000 claimer that requires a bit of a spread. Perfect Set makes his first start since February and appears to be training well enough to be fit off the bench for Hollendorfer, though stats from this stable with layoff runners are average at best. When last seen, the veteran gelding was working on a three-race losing streak when leaving as the favorite, so he may not be entirely one to trust. We’ll use him but not with a great deal of confidence. Winning Causeway earned a big figure – a career top – when posting a game win in a restricted (nw-2) $16,000 seller at Los Alamitos. First or second in six of nine career starts, he’ll be making his first start at Santa Anita and if he can duplicate his Los Al form on the big track he’ll be dangerous at 10-1 on the morning line. Out of Patience is a fit on figures and has won three times over the Santa Anita main track. This class drop from a starter’s $25,000 event could help the Miller-trained gelding get back on track, so we’ll include him as well.

 

 

RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 3-Pedro Cerrano; 4-Annie’s Candy

 

Miller has two major contenders in this seven furlong $50,000 claimer restricted to 3-year-olds, and we’ll use both in our rolling exotics. Pedro Cerrano is strong on numbers and has the proper stalking style for this extended sprint distance. The lightly-raced gelding exits a tougher race at Los Alamitos, retains Pedroza, and catches a pace scenario that projects him to be or near the lead throughout with soft early splits. Annie’s Candy is another tackling easier today and is overdue for a win. He’s a fit on figures, has good tactical speed, and ran very well over this track as a two-year-old.   A strong series of workouts at San Luis Rey Downs is further indication of a top effort. We’ll give Pedro Cerrano preference on top and have an extra ticket or two keying him in the exotics.

 

 

​​RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT.  Grade: B

Use:  2-Sleepwalker; 6-Seattle Boom; 9-Nuke Laloosh

 

This restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claiming extended sprint for 3-year-olds looks challenging, so best advice is to spread as deep as you can afford to. Sleepwalker shows up in a claimer for the first time and may have found his friends. The Eurton-trained colt chased a tougher field when fifth at Los Alamitos last month in his first outing since February and should move forward considerably with that effort behind him combined with the class drop. Look for Elliott to have this Graeme Hill gelding doing his best work in the final furlong. Nuke Laloosh was visually pleasing when beating high-priced maiden claimers two races back at Del Mar with a strong number but was sent long on the lawn in a tough allowance race in his next outing and was no factor. Back where he belongs today under conditions that he apparently prefers, the son of Lemon Drop Kid retains Espinoza and should be on or near the lead throughout. Seattle Boom is another class dropper likely to improve; the Dollase-trained gelding has won over this track in the past and has the kind of speed that should have him prominent throughout. There may be some value here at 8-1 on the morning line.

 

 

RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 1-He Will; 6-American Legion

 

First level allowance older horses compete over a mile on grass in the seventh race that may come down to He Will and American League, and these are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics. He Will rallied into the teeth of slow fractions and just missed in a photo in a similar event at Del Mar last month and today he’s reunited with Bejarano, who won on him here during the spring season. The Hollendorfer-trained colt should enjoy a ground-saving trip from the rail and if he enjoys a clear run when it matters he could easily be along in time. American Legion looked good beating a $50,000 claiming field at Del Mar with a powerful number – by far a career top – and McCarthy protects him today in a sign of confidence. If he can turn in two alike, the son of Old Fashioned will be dangerous right back.

 

 

​​​RACE 8: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade:  B

Use: 7-Brimstoned; 8-Street Moxie; 9-Saint Dermot

 

The eighth race is another highly competitive main track middle distance event. Brimstoned is winless in three starts this year but his numbers are solid, he continues to impress in the morning, and he could regain his winning form with one of his better efforts. The son of Unusual Heat does his best work when pressing the pace, so if he’s allowed to show his speed from the gate he’ll be just where he wants to be during the early stages. At 8-1 on the morning line the Bell-trained gelding has to be used. Street Moxie, third in his last pair, has speed figures that fit and won’t have to improve much to win. The Baltas-trained gelding should be prominent throughout and have every chance. Saint Dermot has burned money in each of his last three starts and may not be one to trust, but he’s back at his favorite track and switches to Bejarano so it wouldn’t be surprising if the Glatt-trained son of Ghostzapper snaps back to top form.

 

 

RACE 9: Post 5:00 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 5-Cosmic Beauty; 7-Prowling Around

 

The nightcap features bottom-rung maiden claiming fillies and mares at the extended sprint distance of seven furlongs. A little will go a long way. Debuting Cosmic Beauty couldn’t have picked an easier spot and if she can run at all she’ll be tough to beat. The Baltas-trained filly attracts Bejarano and has a steady if unspectacular set of workouts at San Luis Rey Downs. She’s a “must use.” Prowling Around, third in both of her prior starts, has modest speed figures but has the closing style that should be effective at this trip. She’s also a second-off-a-layoff play and the barn has good stats with this angle. We’ll try to get by using just these two.

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for October 15, 2016

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