Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for October 16, 2016

USER GUIDELINES

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.  

B=Solid Play.  

C=Least preferred, or pass.  

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

BELMONT PARK

​Sunday, October 16, 2016​

RACE 1: Post: 12:55 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Admiral Blue; 6-Winning Road

RACE 2: Post 1:28 ET. Grade: C

Use: 5-Flattermefabulous; 6-Summersault; 7-Sugar Mags

RACE 3: Post 2:01 ET. Grade: B

Use: 1-Conquest Prankster; 5-Sicilia Mike

RACE 4: Post 2:34 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Amapola; 4-Cherry Lodge

RACE 5: Post 3:07 ET. Grade: C

Use: 4-Storm Pursuit; 10-Regulus; 12-Pinstripe

RACE 6: Post 3:40 ET. Grade: C

Use: 2-Tuscan Getaway; 3-McIlroy; 11-Frogman Mel

RACE 7: Post 4:13 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 4-China Rider; 5-Really; 7-Heavenly Grace

RACE 8: Post 4:46 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 3-Maura's Pass; 9-Washington Song

RACE 9: Post 5:19 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Gagaoveryou; 8-Dauphine Russe; 10-Sunrise Kitty

SANTA ANITA 

​Sunday, October 16, 2016

​​

RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 1-Lily Kai; 7-Shazara

 

The Sunday program begins with a competitive first-level allowance affair over nine furlongs on turf for fillies and mares. Shazara earned a career top speed figure when finishing an excellent runner-up in a similar event at Del Mar in late August and this lightly-raced daughter of El Corredor certainly has plenty of room for further improvement. She’s reunited with Espinoza, who won on her two races back, and today’s extra half-furlong should complement her late-running style. Lily Kai was overmatched in a listed stakes at Del Mar in her most recent start but returns to reality today and is back with Bejarano, who has won on her in the past. She should draft into an ideal second flight, ground-saving position from her good rail post. Let’s use both in our rolling exotics and then press a bit with Shazara on top.

 

 

RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: X

Single: 2-Desert Madam

 

Desert Madam is the 7/5 morning line choice in this five-runner affair for second-level allowance fillies and mares over a distance of ground on dirt. She’s working on a three-race winning streak, she has five prior scores over this main track, she’s very fast on numbers and she should be the controlling speed. It all adds up to a short-priced rolling exotic single.

 

 

RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: X

Single: 6-My Prince Harry

 

My Prince Harry ran too good to lose when second in a fast, highly-rated affair for older maidens at Del Mar in late August and sports a strong, healthy work pattern since. The son of Henny Hughes won’t have to improve to beat this modest field, but we suspect he’ll continue to get faster and stronger with added experience. He’s 7/5 on the morning line and likely will go lower, so we’ll basically pass the race while using the Puype-trained colt as a rolling exotic single.

 

 

​​RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 5-Aiming Straight; 6-Flowinwiththebreez

 

The fourth race is a modest $12,500 claiming sprint for distaffers; we’ll try to advance using just two in our rolling exotics but if you feel the need to spread, go right ahead. Aiming Straight drops to her lowest level ever, has better than par recent speed figures, and looks like a live item, though the layoff (since July 24) for low profile connections is of some concern. The good news is that she’s hit the board in seven of 10 career starts and run very well fresh in the past. Flowinwiththebreez finished a good second in a similar affair over this track in June but then disappeared. The D’Amato barn has superior stats with layoff runners and this lightly-raced five-year-old, based on her best form, should be on or near the lead for most of the way.

 

 

RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 6-Silver Assault

 

Silver Assault was very impressive breaking his maiden at first asking in June at Santa Anita and probably was best in is second outing in the San Anita Juvenile Stakes the following month. A poor start cost him his best chance and the son of MacLean’s Music actually did very well to wind up third, beaten just over three lengths. The Hollendorfer-trained colt makes his first start since and has trained like he’s fit and ready. Drawn comfortably outside, he can pop and go or stalk and pounce. At 5/2 on the morning line he’s a strong straight play and rolling exotic single.

 

 

​​RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT.  Grade: B-

Use:  4-Stormy Liberal; 5-Rangi; 9-Chips All In

 

The sixth race is a grass grab bag down the hill for older $40,000 claimers. Chips All In is an old pro with four prior wins over this course and most recently finished fourth, beaten just a half-length, vs. tougher company at Del Mar. If he’s cranked up and ready to go in his first start in more than two months, the Brocklebank-trained horse should be in the battle throughout. Stormy Liberal shows up in a claimer for the first time in his first outing since April; the works at Los Alamitos look solid for O’Neill and we suspect this gelding is ready for a big effort. Two prior wins over the course add fuel to the fire. Rangi lost a toughie under similar conditions at Del Mar, going down by a neck after leading until the final yards. First or second in six of 12 career starts over the Santa Anita lawn, the Baltas-trained gelding puts blinkers on for the first time and could easily become the controlling speed. Let’s try to get by using just these three with preference on top to Chips All In.

 

 

RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 9-Global Event; 10-Marvelous Max

 

Bottom-rung maiden claimers sprint seven furlongs in the seventh race. Global Event was purchased for $685,000 at the Fasig-Tipton March Sale last year but managed to run only once as a two-year-old and finished far back. Off more than year, he returns at the bottom for Baffert, so it’s anybody’s guess as to his current condition. If he can run at all – and we suspect he can – he’ll fire fresh and handle this modest assignment. Marvelous Max, third in his last pair with solid speed figures, is the best of the “known” element and will be tough to deny if ‘Event doesn’t fire. Let’s see if we can survive this race using just these two.

 

 

​​​RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade:  C

Use: 7-Jonny’s Choice; 9-Alltheleavesrbrown

 

Low-level claiming milers occupy the eighth race; nothing in the field is what you’d call trustworthy. Use as many as you can afford to. Jonny’s Choice drops below his claim level for Yakteen, knows how to win races, and should be on or near the lead throughout. Alltheleavesrbrown, a distant third vs. restricted $16,000 foes at Los Alamitos, drops to the bottom today and should a chance at a price. At 12-1 on the morning line he’s worth tossing in.

 

 

RACE 9: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 6-C. C. Zipp; 7-Lori’s Attitude; 10-Could Be Magic

 

The finale is a better-than-average downhill slalom event for maiden fillies and mares. Could Be Magic, a closing second in her debut at Del Mar going five furlongs on grass, gets an extra furlong and a half to work with today and if she can produce a forward she’ll be along in time. Smith stays aboard for Glatt, who has superior stats with second-time starters. Lori’s Attitude, in the money in all three starts, earned her best number over this course and distance during the summer meeting and should be in the battle once again, though as a beaten choice in her last pair she may be a tad tough to trust. C. C. Zipp has had more than her share of chances (she’s a nine-race maiden) but she’s never been tried sprinting on turf and that’s what she’s bred to excel at. We have to include her.

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for October 16, 2016

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