Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for October 27, 2016

USER GUIDELINES

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

Top selection indicated in bold-face. 

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

BELMONT PARK

​Thursday, October 27, 2016​

RACE 1: Post: 12:55 ET. Grade: X

Single: 3-Northern Screamer

RACE 2: Post 1:28 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 5-Majestic Mist; 9-Courtmewithcarats; 10-Hoponthebusgus

RACE 3: Post 2:01 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Becker''s Galaxy; 4-Derby Glass; 5-Onecats Chance

RACE 4: Post 2:34 ET. Grade: B

Use: 8-Samadi Sky; 10-James Lane

RACE 5: Post 3:07 ET. Grade: B+

Single: 5-Uncle Southern

RACE 6: Post 3:40 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 5-Nobody Move; 7-Jet Black; 9-Brimstone

RACE 7: Post 4:13 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 2-Roccia d'Oro; 3-Sly Tom

RACE 8: Post 4:46 ET.  Grade: B+

Use: 2-Life in Shambles; 3-Easy to Say; 9-Angry Moon

RACE 9: Post 5:19 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Ortiga; 3-Magsamelia; 10-Battle Tux

SANTA ANITA 

​Thursday, October 27, 2016

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RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 2-Ucanthankmelater; 3-Long Gone

 

Long Gone never a chance in his debut – he raced in heavy traffic from start to finish yet kept on gamely to the wire – and certainly is much better than the line will show. He moves up a level and stretches out, so conditions are different today, but the son of Pleasantly Perfect certainly is bred to improve with experience and distance, so let’s gamble a bit at or near his morning line of 8-1. Uncanthankmelater, beaten a neck while more than six clear of the rest over this track and distance earlier this month, will be tough once again if he can turn in two alike. He draws a better post today and should be prominent throughout. Both should be used in rolling exotic play.

 

 

RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Hot Sean; 5-Curley’s Waterfront

 

There’s a distinct possibility of a hot pace and speed duel in this first-level allowance main track mile event for juveniles. Chaos could result, so tread lightly. Hot Sean is 4/5 on the morning line and certainly can win, but he’s hooking other speed (Tell Me a Story) and we’re not totally convinced he’ll improve two-turning. A bullet workout since his maiden win earlier this month is a positive, so a forward move certainly is possible. Curley’s Waterfront is 6-1 on the morning line and could be the best of the closers if given that type of ride form Baze. His shows an improving pattern, ran well over this main track in his debut last summer and boasts a solid, healthy recent work tab. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics.

 

 

RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B+

Single: 8-Resistanceisfutile

The Pick-6 begins in the third race, a maiden claiming bottom-rung affair for older horses over a mile on the main track. As a nine-race maiden, Resistanceisfutile certainly is overdue. He’s stretching out for the first time, removing blinkers, and he’s also getting a significant break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Lindsay. He’ll never get an easier chance, so let’s take a stand and use the Becerra-trained gelding as a straight play and rolling exotic single.

 

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RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: C

Use: 2-Holy Moses; 3-Resky Business; 4-Perfect Cocktail

 

Resky Business may deserve a slight edge on top in this starter/optional claiming mile event for juvenile fillies, it’s a tough event that might be best left alone. There’s six starters, three of which we’ll be including in our rolling exotics, but if you feel the need to go deeper, go right ahead. ‘Business shows up for a tag and stretches out for the first time so improvement is likely; her sprint numbers are just so-so but she switches to Prat and could find herself on or near the lead throughout. Perfect Cocktail just broke her maiden for $30,000 at Los Alamitos at this distance and the number, while not fast, was a career stop so another forward move is possible. Holy Mosey is bred to handle two-turns, gets her first chance today to try it and closed with interest to be third in a first-level allowance sprint here earlier this month. Stevens stays aboard and has won with her in the past.

 

 

RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 3-Lady Pamela; 6-Sugary; 7-Lauren’s Export

 

Older maiden special weight fillies and mares meet occupy the fifth race, a nine-furlong event on grass. Sugary has been out since late July but if she returns as well as she left she can beat this field. The Jones-trained filly finished strongly but just ran out of room when third, beaten a half-length, in a similar affair at Del Mar while earning a career top number, and not much better will be needed today. Her deep-closing style should be complimented by the added distance. Lady Pamela missed by a neck in a maiden track event at Los Alamitos last month and the daughter of Tapit will try grass for the first time, a surface she’s bred to love. Desormeaux stays aboard Sise and will have her running on strongly late. Lauren’s Export was a none-threatening seventh (but beaten just over three lengths) in her debut in August over a distance of ground on turf at Del Mar and is very likely to produce a forward move with the switch to Prat. You have to use her.

 

 

​​RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: C

Use:  5-Sheswildnfree; 6-Feel the Charge

 

The sixth race is a messy affair matching restricted (nw-2) $12,500 fillies and mares at a mile on the main track. This is a proper race to pass, but rolling exotic players don’t really that luxury. Sheswildnfree finished second in a slightly tougher spot at Los Alamitos in her most recent outing and has run okay over this main track in the past, so we’ll put her on top mostly by default. Feel the Charge, off the track for almost 14 months, returns cheap for Hofmans and has won at Santa Anita in the past, so she’s probably should be included as well.

 

 

RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 4-Molly’s Honour; 6-Mangita; 8-Flamingo Lane

 

The seventh race is another tough affair, this one at a mile on grass for $40,000 claiming fillies and mares. Flamingo Lane is the logical top pick; the Miller-trained mare puts on blinkers and drops to a realistic level in a race that might find her as the controlling speed. Even if the lead is taken, the veteran mare has shown the ability to stalk and win, so Arroyo can play it by ear. Molly’s Honour, a closing second at this level in a solid Hillside event earlier this month, is another that can be very dangerous on the front end and has several two-turn races in her resume that are good enough to beat this field. Prat stays aboard for Carava. Mangita, first or second in seven of 10 career starts over the local lawn, returns to the claiming ranks and several past speed figures that are better than par for this level. She’s had a two month freshening and has run well over short layoffs in the past.

 

 

​​​RACE 8: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade:  B-

Single: 9-If You Believe

 

The nightcap is a bottom-rung maiden claiming sprint for older fillies and mares. Anything goes. If You Believe, in the money in three of her last four starts, earned a career top speed figure in her most recent start and if she doesn’t go backwards today she’ll be this field. Nothing else inspires, so let’s use her as a rolling exotic single pretty much by default.

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for October 27, 2016

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