Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for October 28, 2016

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
B=Solid Play.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

​Friday, October 28, 2016​

RACE 1: Post: 12:55 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Always a Suspect; 6-Fast Eddie E

RACE 2: Post 1:28 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 5-Palladian Bridge; 9-Jemmabelle
RACE 3: Post 2:01 ET. Grade:NR
Pass/No Play
RACE 4: Post 2:34 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Imasuperstar; 4-Morse Code; 7-Encript
RACE 5: Post 3:07 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 3-Saturday Bliss; 4-Agawa; 8-Sunset Knoll

RACE 6: Post 3:40 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Buffalo Miss; 4-Day After Day

RACE 7: Post 4:13 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Old Upstart; 2-Rockford; 8-Monster Mash
RACE 8: Post 4:46 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Grey Stark; 2-Jet Majesty

RACE 9: Post 5:19 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Rosa Dorata; 2-Beautiful Nite Sky

Friday, October 28, 2016

RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: C
Use: 1-Trinity’s Turn; 2-Olotta Shaken; 6-Public House

The opener is a restricted (nw-3) $16,000 claimer for fillies and mares that drew six runners. Let’s try to beat the 6/5 morning line favorite Midnight Candy (winless in two years) using three others in our rolling exotic play. Olotta Shaken in a solid fit on speed figures and if she runs back to her Del Mar score in mid-August she can win again. Of course, there’s a major caution – she was a voided claim in her last race – so let’s hope she has at least one good one left. Public House isn’t fast on figures but her form is improving, she’s fresh from a clever win at Fresno at this distance, and Pedroza should have her on or near the lead throughout. At 12-1 on the morning line she offers some good value. Trinitys Turn has decent recent form including a $16,000 nw-2 victory at Los Alamitos last month. From the rail she should draft into a good second flight, ground-saving position, and may be the most dependable in the field.

​RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 6-Vibe; 7-Datcastsa Gem

Vibe exits the FrontRunner S.-G1 and shows up in a high priced maiden claimer – now that’s what you’d call a class drop – and in this league the son of Astrology looks well-spotted for the Desormeaux brothers. The number he earned when third in straight maiden company two races back is good enough to beat this field, but at 6/5 on the morning line he doesn’t offer much in the way of value. In our rolling exotics we’ll also toss in Datcatsa Gem, bred to run long and getting his chance around two turns after three okay efforts sprinting. He should be prominent throughout under Pedroza.

RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 5-Hay Dude; 9-Unusual Fleet

Hay Dude is a first-off-the-claim for Miller (33% with a flat-bet profit) and also has the route-to-sprint angle we like so much. He looks on paper to be the controlling speed, so this veteran gelding should have every chance to return to winning form. Theriot, who has ridden a number of live horses for this barn lately, takes the call. Unusual Fleet is reunited with Bejarano, turns back to a sprint, and should be rolling in the final furlong. At 6-1 on the morning line he’s a “must use.” We’ll double the race in our rolling exotics and then press in the straight pool using Hay Dude on top.

​​RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: B
Single: 5-Glacken Too

Glacken Too is boosted two levels in class by Miller in a sign of confidence and looks well-spotted to score again despite the tougher assignment. The veteran gelding, a winner of two of his last three outings, has plenty of zip and should be able to deal with the kind of early challenge that Blue Anchor is likely to provide. The son of Smoke Glacken can take heat as well as dish it out, and in his present form seems more than capable of winning at this level. At 5/2 on the morning line he’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.

RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-5-Road Test; 7-Jilly

Maiden juvenile fillies sprint six furlongs in the fifth race in what looks like a softer than par race for the level. Jilly has the benefit of two prior runs and was most recently beaten just a nose in a similar event over this track earlier this month. The Baffert-trained daughter of Lookin At Lucky earned a strong figure in defeat and seems the solid choice. Road Test has done some good work in the morning for O’Neill and may be a live item in a moderate affair. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics while preferring Jilly on top.

​​RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Yodelers Way; 2-Downside Up

Maiden claiming juveniles meet over the extended sprint distance of six and one-half furlongs in the sixth race that appears to have two main contenders. Yodelers Way, in the money in his last pair and re-equipped with blinkers, switches to Bejarano and should be on or near the lead from the rail. Downside Up has numbers that fit and drops to his lowest level. He’ll have every chance from a stalking position.

​RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: X
Single: 5-Val Dori

Val Dori is listed at 4/5 on the morning line and deserves to be in this five-runner middle distance main track allowance event. A distant third in the Zenyatta S.-G1 behind Stellar Wind and Beholder, she’s facing nothing here even remotely in that class and should regain her form with anything close to her best. Let’s make her a rolling exotic single but otherwise pass the race.

​​​RACE 8: Post 4:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 3-Shane’s Girlfriend; 9-Spooky Woods

The nightcap is a split of the fifth race, a maiden sprint for juvenile fillies. Spooky Woods finished a reasonable third in the Barretts Debutante at Los Alamitos last month in her debut and seems likely to move forward considerably today with the drop to maiden special weight company and the benefit of a previous run. Drawn comfortably outside, the daughter of Ghostzapper retains Smith, has worked well since raced, and seems the solid choice. Shane’s Girlfriend is bred to be quick (Adios Charlie) and has looked good in a series of local drills for O’Neill. At 6-1 on the morning she’s worth tossing in.

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for October 28, 2016

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