Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for October 30, 2016

USER GUIDELINES

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

 

 

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.  

B=Solid Play.  

C=Least preferred, or pass.  

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

BELMONT PARK

​Sunday, October 30, 2016​

RACE 1: Post: 12:55 ET. Grade: C

Use: 2-Formal Summation; 3-Two Weeks Off; 6-Steve's Image

RACE 2: Post 1:26 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 9-Fear; 10-Pine Ridge Forest; 11-J. J. Jake

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RACE 3: Post 1:57 ET. Grade: B

Use: 3-Buckwellspent

RACE 4: Post: 2:34 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Bogulator; 6-Merger Arbitrage; 11-Untouch

RACE 5: Post 3:00 ET. Grade: B+

Single: 6-Stonetastic

RACE 6: Post 3:32 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Holiday Stone; 5-Tempter; 11-Fuel the Bern

RACE 7: Post 4:04 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 4-Banana Thief; 11-Excluded; 12-Tiz a Chance

RACE 8: Post 4:46 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 4-Beat the Benchmark; 5-Chubby Star; 12-Create a Dream

RACE 9: Post 5:08 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 7-Meatball Maddnes; 10-Pesky's Spirit; 11-Bea Bea

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​SANTA ANITA 

​Sunday, October 30, 2016

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RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B+

Single: 3-Cut

 

Maiden juveniles meet over a mile on turf in the Sunday opener. Cut (City Zip) is bred to move up a ton on grass and also has the two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern we like so much. The Eurton-trained colt should be quick enough to establish the pace and if he’s ever going to stay the trip, it will be in his first time trying it. The others don’t inspire, so let’s make him a straight play and rolling exotic single and hope to get close to his morning line of 2-1.

 

 

RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Kenzou’s Rhythm; 3-Proud of Our Kids

 

Maiden claiming juveniles occupy the second race, a middle distance affair that attracted just six runners. Kenzou’s Rhythm stretches out for the first time and in this context should be able to get the distance. The son of Algorithms has rising numbers, switches to Baze, and looks to be a definite gate-to-wire threat. Proud of Our Kids, a distant fourth over this track and distance in a similar spot earlier this month, had a bit of early trouble in that race and probably has some improvement in him. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics while preferring Kenzou’s Rhythm on top.

 

 

RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: C +

Use: 1-Pedro Cerrano; 4-Last One Standing; 5-El Koreano

 

Pedro Cerrano stumbled at the start and probably lost his best chance when unplaced in a $50,000 claimer earlier this month; he drops significantly in class today and may have found his friends. The Miller-trained gelding should settle into a good, ground saving, second-flight position. The one to beat is Last One Standing, fresh from a sharp win vs. $16,000 foes at Los Alamitos when earning a career top speed figure. This is a tougher group but his sharpness must be respected. El Koreano, away since failing as the choice in late August at Del Mar, switches to Pedroza and is eligible to bounce back after a brief vacation. He may be the quickest of the quick. We’ll give Pedro Cerrano a very slight edge on top but use all three in our rolling exotics.

 

 

​​RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 6-Algorhythmic; 8-Summer Lady; 10-Sea Smoke

 

The Pick-6 begins in the fourth race, a downhill turf sprint for state-bred fillies and mares. Summer Lady is overdue for a win and could return to good form with this drop back in trip. She’s run well over this course in the past and ran second the last time she sprinted on grass here last May. Sea Smoke is another dangerous route-to-sprint play and has figures that make her a fit. She’ll need strong handling from the 10-pound bug Garcia, but she’s drawn favorably outside and should draft into a good stalking spot. Algorhythmic, yet another shortening from a series of two-turn tries, broke her maiden over this course and distance in the spring, and after a brief freshening could return to her best form under these conditions. Let’s put Summer Lady on top but triple the race in rolling exotic play.

 

 

RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT.  Grade: X

Single: 2-Nextdoorneighbor

 

Nextdoorneighbor is 4/5 on the morning line after returning to winning form in his first start since being claimed back by Miller, and there’s every reason to believe he can score again while facing the same level of competition. He’s won 12 races in his career, seven of which have come over the Santa Anita main track.   Let’s make him a no value rolling exotic single.

 

 

​​RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT.  Grade: C+

Use:  2-Zealous Tale; 3-Picture Tube; 7-Chiksika

 

High priced maiden claimers traverse a mile in the fifth race. We’ll spread three-deep in our rolling exotics but otherwise play conservatively.   Zealous Tale was nosed out in a maiden $40,000 miler at Del Mar in August and earned a solid figure; he’s the one to beat today with the switch to Prat in his second off the claim for O’Neill. If you can get close to his morning line of 6-1 he may be worth a play. Picture Tube drops from straight maiden company, removes blinkers for the first time and seems sure to improve, though his low percentage connections are hard to back with any degree of confidence. However, based purely on speed figures, this son of Malibu Moon should be right there. Chiksika is a first-timer from the Walsh barn with a series of decent workouts at Los Alamitos. He won’t have to be a world-beater to act with this group, so we’ll toss him in as well.

 

 

RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 8-St. Joe Bay; 9-Chief of Staff; 10-Avanti Bello

 

The main contention appears to be drawn outside in the seventh race, a main track allowance race over a mile. Avanti Bello will have to overcome the 10-hole but he’s strong in the speed figure department, retains Prat, and should be prominent throughout. If he can avoid losing ground early, he should settle in nicely just off the pace types. Chief of Staff, third in the same race Avanti Bello just finished second in, has room to improve and may benefit from the switch to Arroyo. He’s better than h is morning line of 10-1 indicates. St. Joe Bay was overmatched in the City of Hope Mile-G2 on turf but he isn’t today. His convincing win two races back at Del Mar charts very well here and the Miller-trained gelding has been first or second in four of six lifetime starts over the Santa Anita main track. He’s also reunited with win-rider Desormeaux. We’ll give St. Joe Bay a very slight nod on top but use all three in our rolling exotics.

 

 

RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade:  B

Use: 1-Perfectly Majestic; 4-Twentytwentyvision

 

The Lure Stakes, a restricted affair over a mile on turf, looks made to order for Twentytwentyvision, an excellent third in the John Henry Turf-G2 in his most recent outing and facing considerably easier company today while also shortening from 10 furlongs to a flat mile. The Mandella-trained gelding has never been off the board in six prior starts over the local lawn and should be tough to contain in the final furlong. Perfectly Majestic, a non-threatening fourth in the City of Hope Mile-G2 behind Vyjack, should go better against this lesser field and while he likes to finish second or third more than he likes to win, the Hess-trained gelding should be making some noise in the final furlong. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and then have extra tickets keying Twentytwentyvision on top.

 

 

RACE 9: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 4-Look Twice; 6-Thunder Basin

 

The finale is a restricted (nw-3) $16,000 claiming main track miler that finds Thunder Basin is an ideal spot for a breakthrough effort. First off the claim for Hess (21% with a flat-bet profit), the son of Unbridled’s Song will be making his third start off a layoff, stretches out to his preferred distance, retains Pedroza, and shows two solid works since raced. In his only prior start over the Santa Anita main track, he missed by a nose while earning a number good enough to beat this field. We’ll prefer him on top but in rolling exotic play we’ll also include Look Twice, also stretching out to two-turns and with rising speed figures.

 

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for October 30, 2016

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