The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
Monday, July 3, 2017
RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 5-Longstocking; 6-S Y Sky
First-level allowance fillies and mares sprint down the hill in the Monday opener. S Y Sky was most impressive in her debut with a stakes win sprinting – her last two races were routes – and we suspect she’ll eventually prove to be more effective going short than long. She has the proper style for this course and looks capable of producing the last run. Despite tackling older and moving into open company, the daughter of Grazen has sufficient numbers to handle this group. Longstocking lacks a true winning punch but she always seems to be in the thick of things in the final furlong and is a logical exacta partner with our top pick. You can use her as a saver or a back-up in rolling exotic play as well.
RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 8-Clifton Beach; 9-Blame Joe
Bottom-rung maiden claimers meet over six furlongs in the second race with the main contention drawn outside. Blame Joe was scratched Saturday for this spot and looks clearly the most dangerous of the closing types. The Peter Miller-trained gelding has speed figures that are better than par for this level and with clear sailing he could be hard to contain in the final furlong. Clifton Beach should be on or near the lead throughout, and with the addition of blinkers he could be long gone, especially with the severe drop in class and the switch to red hot bug boy Evin Roman. Let’s use both in our rolling exotics with a perhaps a very slight edge on top to Blame Joe, but this is not a race we’re planning to get too involved in.
RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Tiz a Billy; 5-Perfectly Majestic
The third race is a salty downhill turf sprint for third level allowance runners that boils down to Tiz a Billy and Perfectly Majestic, with preference to ‘Billy on top. The Tizway gelding just earned a career top number when beating a lesser field over this course and distance and he projects to be the controlling speed once again. First or second in five of six starts over this unique layout, he’s thoroughly genuine and consistent, and without undue early pressure he’ll be difficult to catch. Perfectly Majestic always has preferred to run second or third rather than win (four career wins, 15 seconds and thirds) but it’s hard to ignore his huge effort to Stormy Liberal in the Joe Hernandez Stakes two runs back that earned him a triple-digit Beyer figure. Without tactical speed, the son of Majesticperfection does his work from off the pace and is often pace dependent, which probably explains his modest win percentage. Both should be included in rolling exotic play but we’ll have extra tickets keying Tiz a Billy.
RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 4-Summertimemischief; 5-Zanab; 6-Yavrig
The fourth race is a chaotic restricted $12,500 claiming extended sprint for fillies and mares and requires a spread. We’ll use three, but not with any degree of confidence. Yavrig has been getting closer and has the proper style for this seven furlong trip; the daughter of City Zip is winless in 10 starts over the Santa Anita main track so she’s hard to trust, but at least her pattern is healthy so we’re expecting a good effort. Zanab missed by a neck in a restricted $12,500 seller at five and one-half furlongs last month but the extra furlong and a half should be of some benefit and she has a few back numbers that are much better than par for this level. Summertimemischief drops to her lowest level ever and could wake up; her maiden claiming win over this track and distance in April charts nicely here so she rates “must use” status in rolling exotic play.
RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: X
Single: 4-Run Away
Run Away was bet like he couldn’t lose in his debut and performed as expected, scoring impressively in what has proven to be a productive race. Afterwards, the plan was to invade Royal Ascot, but following a disappointing work on turf at Keeneland, training Simon Callaghan opted to return the son of Run Away and Hide to California. A nice recent five furlong drill should have him on edge, but at 6/5 on the morning line there’s no real value to be had. Let’s make him a rolling exotic single but otherwise pass the race.
RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Make It a Triple; 4-Empire Ruler
The late Pick-4 begins with the sixth race, a state-bred seven furlong maiden $50,000 claimer. Make It a Triple, a route-to-sprint play, earned a huge figure when third over a mile vs. similar in his most recent outing and with just three starts under his belt the Mike Machowsky-trained gelding most likely has room for further improvement. He should be prominent throughout from the rail and with even a modest forward move will be tough to beat. Empire Ruler is slower on figures than Make It a Triple but he’s improving with racing and has the proper style for this distance. The son of Empire Way exits a live, productive race and clearly is the most dangerous of the late-runners. Let’s prefer Make It a Triple on top but use both in our rolling exotics.
RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Banze No Oeste; 4-Hollywood Don; 6-Unusual Meeting
The seventh race is a grass grab bag down the hill with several possibilities. We’ll go three-deep and hope that’s sufficient. Unusual Meeting is a razor sharp Bay Area invader with the always-dangerous route-to-sprint angle; the veteran gelding will be doing his best work late and with a little help up front might be able to tag the speed. The Miller-trained Hollywood Don ran well under these conditions two races back and plummets to his lowest level ever while seeking his first win in a couple of years. He also gets a weight break with the presence of leading rider Roman in the saddle. Banze No Oeste provides Miller with another bullet to fire; the Brazilian-bred gelding has two prior wins over this course and with good racing luck from the rail he could be heard from in the final furlong.
RACE 8: Post 4:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Zuzu’s Petals; 6-Look Quickly
The eighth race is a starter’s handicap for $16,000 claiming fillies and mares at the abbreviated sprint distance of five furlongs. Zuzu’s Petals may be as good as any. She’s been extremely popular at the claim box lately and today finds herself in the hot Jeff Mullins barn following a facile score for $20,000 in late April. She’s primarily a late-running sprinter and this trip might be a tad sharp, but we’re expecting the veteran mare to make her presence felt in the final furlong, high weight and all. Look Quickly is a decent Golden Gate shipper that has finished first or second in 14 of 27 career starts and lands Flavien Prat. She has an effective stalking style, fits on speed figures, and probably is just as good on dirt as she is on all-weather. Let’s use both in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring Zuzu’s Petals on top.
RACE 9: Post 5:00 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 7-Plate Side; 9-Kings River King
The nightcap is a fairly competitive downhill turf sprint for California-bred maidens. Kings River King had a troubled trip in his debut under these conditions and would have been a lot closer with a clean journey, and then was badly overmatched in nine furlong turf stakes. Back to reality today, the Kenny Black-trained gelding is reunited with Tyler Baze, and with good racing luck seems capable of producing the last run. Plate Side adds blinkers after a promising debut run down the hill and seems likely to move forward with that effort behind him. The Square Eddie gelding should be the best of the pace pressers and will be double tough if he can shake loose early. Preference on top goes to Kings River King but we’ll use both in our rolling exotics.
Monday, July 3, 2017
RACE 1: Post 1:30 ET. Grade: B
Use: 7-Casino King; 8-Giant Brownie
RACE 2: Post 2:04 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Madison Blues; 3-Frosty Lady
RACE 3: Post 2:37 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Perfect Partner; 5-Spieth; 7-Funtastic
RACE 4: Post: 3:09 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Summer House; 2-Quezon
RACE 5: Post 3:41 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Pagliacci; 2-Snap Decision
RACE 6: Post 4:14 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Privy Council; 6-Heavenly Grace
RACE 7: Post 4:46 ET. Grade: B+
RACE 8: Post 5:18 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-Seymourdini; 4-Hard Study
RACE 9: Post 5:50 ET. Grade: B
Use: 3-Uncle Tbone; 5-Uncle Chester; 8-Discretionary Marq