Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, Bel) for June 17, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Saturday, June 17, 2017

​​

RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B+

Single: 1-Face of Victory

With the scratching of main contender True Valor, the Saturday opener appears to have one main contender and we'll use him as a rolling exotic single. Face of Victory exits a fast, productive race and can be expected to continue his improving pattern in this seven-furlong starter optional claimer restricted to 3-year-olds. The Mike Puype-trained colt must overcome the rail but should have enough early speed to gain a favorable position on or near the lead. . To watch an enhanced video analysis of this race, click here.

 

​​​RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 6-Lady Acclamation; 8-Tiz Mi Haina; 11-Jabber Now

Maiden fillies and mares sprint down the hill in a fairly competitive second race. Jabber Now, a decent runner-up over this course and distance in a strong race for the level, probably won’t have to improve much to graduate and rates top billing under Corey Nakatani. She should have enough tactical speed to settle in the second flight and then have every chance to produce a winning late bid. Tiz Mi Haina is an intriguing first-timer from the Marty Jones barn; the daughter of Tizdejavu shows a bullet six furlong workout at Los Alamitos earlier this month and is bred to like grass. Lady Acclamation, a route-to-sprint play in just her second career start, flashed speed in a hot race that already has proven to be productive and should be fitter and stick better with this turn back in trip. A bullet workout over the training track since her debut is another positive factor. To watch an enhanced video analysis of this race, click here.

  

​​RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 2-Microrithms; 5-Six Cider

The third race is an abbreviated sprint for maiden special weight runners, topped by the debuting Microrithms, from the Bob Baffert barn. The son of Algorithms has displayed excellent speed in a.m. preps and could be too quick for this group, especially at this shortened trip. The break in the weights thanks to bug boy Evin Roman doesn’t hurt, either. Six Cider also has trained well of late and most likely is much better than his only start last summer at Del Mar indicates. Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer has solid stats with layoff runners and with leading jockey Flavien Prat taking the call this son of Medaglia d’Oro looks like a live item. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top going to Microrithms. To watch an enhanced video analysis of this race, click here.

 

​​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 2-Where’s the D; 7-Warren’s Super Cat

The fourth race is an inscrutable bottom-rung claiming sprint for fillies and mares. We’ll try to get by using just two, but best advice is to include as many as you can afford to. Where’s the D hits rock bottom and it’s now or never for the daughter of Blame. In the money in two of her last three starts when facing considerably tougher foes, the Peter Eurton-trained filly will beat this field if she has one good one left, but at 2-1 on the morning line she won’t be offering much in the way of wagering value. Warren’s Super Cat is another class dropper that might snap back to good form at this level; the veteran mare, freshened since mid-April, should be dangerous from off the pace with anything close to her best effort. To watch an enhanced video analysis of this race, click here.

 

RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Junior Gilliam; 3-Forest Blue

The fifth race is a stronger-than-par entry-level allowance sprint for older runners. Horse-for-course Forest Blue, in the money in all nine of his outings over the Santa Anita dirt surface (with four wins and four seconds), returned to winning form after being claimed back by Jeff Mullins and earned a powerful figure in his most recent score vs. starter handicap rivals last month. A similar effort today makes him tough right back. Junior Gilliam can be used on a ticket or two as well, although his late-running style might not be effective from his disadvantageous rail post.   To watch an enhanced video analysis of this race, click here.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: X

Single: 4-Sircat Sally

Sircat Sally seeks to extend her unbeaten streak to seven in the first of two feature races on the program, the Honeymoon Stakes-G2 over nine furlongs on turf. There is no reason to believe she can’t or won’t, though at 3/5 on the morning line there’s little we can do with her other than as a no-value rolling exotic single. She can win on the lead or from a stalking position so jockey Mike Smith can play it by ear. To watch an enhanced video analysis of this race, click here.

 

RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: C+

Use: 2-Liberation; 6-Rick’s Dream: 13-Kenzou’s Empire

The seventh race is a messy bottom-rung maiden claimer over seven furlongs that has upset written all over it. The morning line favorite at 4-1 is Kenzou’s Empire and he can certainly win, though he’s hardly one to trust. The Richard Baltas-trained gelding has the route-to-sprint angle we like and enough early speed to gain favorable position or even make the lead, but he’s always been suspect in the final furlong under pressure. Liberation exits a series of much better races and seems to have found his friends at this level. On pure numbers he’s a major contender and he’s also turning back from a two-turn event while making his first start as a gelding. At 6-1 on the morning line he may deserve top billing. Rick’s Dream clunked up to be third in his debut without changing lead and without really threatening but he has a license to improve with experience and distance and also makes a favorable jockey switch to hot riding bug boy Roman. The barn also has very strong stats with second timers. We’ll try to get by using just these three but nothing would surprise us. To watch an enhanced video analysis of this race, click here.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: C

Use: 3-Sky Preacher; 5-Hay Dude; 6-County Lineman; 9-Wood Machine

The eighth race is a starter handicap grass grab bag. Sky Preacher comes off an extra game score in a $50,000 claimer and makes his first start via a claim for trainer John Sadler while retaining jockey Rafael Bejarano, who seems to get the most run out of him. The son of Sky Mesa has four career wins, three of which have been earned over this turf course, and if he can turn in two alike he can win right back. Hay Dude was a brave winner sprinting down the hill recently but he can route as well and will be double tough if not pressured on the front end. County Lineman has races that put him in the fray and won’t have to improve much to make a serious run for it. Wood Machine has won five of his last seven starts, including a sharp score for $32,000 in his local debut last month. He’ll be running on late again and probably is worth using on a ticket or two as well. To watch an enhanced video analysis of this race, click here.

 

RACE 9: Post 5:00 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 3-It Tiz Well; 7-Majestic Quality

The ninth race co-feature, the Summertime Oaks-G1 for 3-year-old fillies, has tons of speed signed up, so we’re looking at a couple of late-runners to do some damage. Majestic Quality earned a career top speed figure (and one that fits very well here) in a confidence-building maiden score recently and should be the beneficiary of an extreme race shape. She’s most likely to receive the patient ride she needs from Desormeaux. It Tiz Well was no match for Paradise Woods and Abel Tasman when a distant third in the Santa Anita Oaks-G1 last time out but won the Honeybee Stakes-G3 at Oaklawn Park two races back and that race charts very well in this event. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to ‘Quality. To watch an enhanced video analysis of this race, click here.

 

RACE 10: Post 5:30 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 2-Kopitar; 11-Member State

The nightcap is a highly-contentious maiden special weight turf miler that drew a full field of 12. Kopitar, a first-time gelding, stretches out after a pair of sprints (love that pattern) and shouldn’t have any excuses after missing twice as the favorite. The son of Shackleford exits a powerful race won by future star Arms Runner and has nobody that good to worry about today. He should be prominent throughout from his favorable inside draw. Member State finished second to Beau Recall (she’s entered earlier today in the Honeymoon S.) in a strong maiden race in Ireland as a 2-year-old and makes his U.S. debut today with Lasix for trainer Simon Callaghan, who always does well with European imports. With Prat taking the call, this English-bred gelding looks very well-meant. Oregon drops back to a mile, switches to Gary Stevens, and figures tough with a repeat of his race before last. We’ll toss him in as well.   To watch an enhanced video analysis of this race, click here.

 

 

BELMONT PARK

Saturday, June 17, 2017

 

​RACE 1: Post 1:30 ET. Grade: B

Use: 6-Cool as You Like; 7-Frost Wise

​​

​​RACE 2: Post 2:01 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Air Vice Marshal; 2-Rappel; 8-Cerise’s Prince

RACE 3: Post 2:32 ET. Grade: B+

Single: 2-Clipthecouponannie

​​​RACE 4: Post: 3:04 ET. Grade: B

Use: 7-Now in a Drive; 8-Sentry

​RACE 5: Post 3:36 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 3-Itsinthestars; 8-Puparee; 11-Majestic Bloom

​​​RACE 6: Post 4:09 ET. Grade: B

Use: 2-Deltalina; 8-May Flowers

​​RACE 7: Post 4:41 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 4-Sir Bond; 5-Gentrify; 6-Rockford

​​

​​​RACE 8: Post 5:13 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 2-Penjade; 7-Puca

RACE 9: Post 5:45 ET.  Grade: C

Use: 3-Americasprincess; 10-Weekend Hottie; 12-Emiliana’s Hope

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, Bel) for June 17, 2017

Jeff Siegel's Blog |