The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
Friday, May 12, 2017
RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: X
Single: 5-Watch Me Now
Watch Me Now is listed as the 8/5 morning line favorite in the Friday opener, but we suspect she’ll go lower in a five-runner field of $16,000 sprinting fillies and mares. Drawn comfortably outside following her nine length romp in her seasonal bow from a lesser field last month, the Doug O’Neill-trained filly seems realistically spotted based on pure numbers and should have every chance to repeat, but likely will offer no wagering value. We can use her as a rolling exotic single or simply pass the race.
RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Runaway Ghost; 4-Argosy Fleet; 6-Summer’s Burst
The second race is maiden special weight sprint for juveniles. Argosy Fleet brought $250,000 at the OBS March Sale where he blazed a furlong in 9 4/5 seconds, so he clearly has plenty of speed. Locally, the son of Mineshaft put in a solid drill earlier this month (see workout) and clearly is primed for a strong effort first crack out of the box. Summer’s Burst comes from a barn that excels with debut runners and has trained well enough to warrant consideration (see workout). Runaway Ghost turned in a few noteworthy workouts at Sunland Park in New Mexico before arriving in California, and this homebred son of Ghostzapper looks like a live item for trainer Mike Machowsky. Preference on top goes to Argosy Fleet but this is the type of race that could provide a surprise.
RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-David’s Memory; 4-Bombard; 5-American League
The Pick-6 begins with the third race, a downhill turf sprint for first-level allowance horses. David’s Memory, with two wins and a second in three career starts over this course and distance, should fire another big shot today and is the likely choice and one to beat. The son of Vronsky switches to Kent Desormeaux and appears on paper to be the controlling speed. American League, first off the claim for Jeff Bonde, turns back in trip, switches to Tyler Baze, and should have every chance from a pace-stalking position. His runner-up try in a $50,000 claimer two races back charts well with these. Bombard, away since August, returns for trainer Richard Mandella and his a.m. trials (see workout) seems to indicate he’s fit enough to be a factor. We suspect he’ll be doing his best work in the final furlong. David’s Memory deserves top billing but all three should be included in rolling exotic play.
RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Magical Lucy; 2-Jill Madden; 5-Rizzi’s Honors
The fourth race is a contentious starter’s allowance sprint for fillies and mares that requires a spread. Jill Madden earned a strong speed figure when graduating from a maiden $30,000 field three weeks ago over a distance of ground and returns for new trainer Bonde in an abbreviated sprint. She can be effective at this trip, so the daughter of Grazen should be a major player. Rizzi’s Honors flopped at 50 cents on the dollar in her recent comeback, having every chance but being worn down late in a similar starter’s affair. The Dan Blacker-trained filly might have been short in that race and we suspect will be fitter and stronger today. An easy half mile drill (see workout) indicates a forward move is likely. Magical Lucy won at first asking in late March and was claimed by Doug O’Neill; she’s protected by her new connections and has a right to produce a forward move, though the rail is no bargain. She’s worth including on a ticket or two.
RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 4-Algorhythmic; 7-Lady Espionage
Algorhythmic earned a giant speed figure winning a starter’s allowance event over this course and distance last month and today tackles tougher non-winners of two competition while seeking to duplicate that career-top performance. A recent bullet half mile drill over the Santa Anita training track (see workout) is a good indication that she maintains her sharpness. Lady Espionage has rising speed figures and a recent downhill maiden special weight win, so the daughter of Lucky Pulpit looks capable of being a contender despite the class hike.
RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Tally Mo; 4-Super Echelon; 7-Caray
The sixth race is a main track maiden claiming miler with seven entrants. It’s another tough affair that has a number of possibilities. Super Echelon missed by a head under similar conditions in late March and earned a number, if repeated, that should be good enough to beat this field. Caray stretches out for the first time for trainer Richard Baltas (good stats with sprint-to-route plays). He’s bred to sprint on both sides of his pedigree, but if he’s ever going to get the trip it will be his first time trying it. Tally Mo drops to his lowest level ever in his seventh career start and should appreciate the softer company. On pure numbers he should be right there against this group.
RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 3-African Fighter; 5-Terzetto; 6-I’ll Wrap It Up
Terzetto is winless in four starts since arriving from Brazil but he’s been chasing tougher foes and might wake up with this drop into the $32,000 claiming ranks. The John Sadler-trained import could find himself on the front end without undue pressure, so at 5-1 on the morning line we’ll put him on top in what has to be a spread race for rolling exotic players. I’ll Wrap It Up is a fit on numbers but shows just three wins from 39 career starts to go along with 18 second and third place finishers. The fact that we consider him to be a major player is a clear indication of how challenging this race is. The come-backing African Fighter is another tackling easier and could regain his East Coast form if he gets some help up front. His morning tab indicates fitness (see workout) so we’ll toss him.
RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Te Amo Memo; 3-Lady Ninja; 11-War Storm
The finale is a downhill turf sprint for maiden claiming fillies and mares. War Storm catches our eye. The Vladimir Cerin-trained filly shows up in a seller for the first time, has the route-to-sprint angle we like, gets a big break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Roman, lands a nice outside post, and has speed figures that put her in the fray. She’s worth a strong look at 5-1 on the morning line. Te Amo Mamo also is exiting a pair of straight maiden affairs and seems likely to step forward at this lower level. She has enough speed to overcome the rail post if she leaves cleanly and really won’t have to improve much to win. Lady Ninja is a first-timer from the Mike McCarthy barn with a useful series of drills. With Flavien Prat taking the call, she’s a “must use.” Let’s use all three in our rolling exotics and then press a bit keying War Storm.
Friday, May 12, 2017
RACE 1: Post 1:30 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 5-Mastic; 7-Bustin the Bank
RACE 2: Post 2:01 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 7-Surprise Wonder; 8-Walk and Talk
RACE 3: Post 2:32 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Assertive; 2-Brooklyn Gerty; 4-Holy Helena
RACE 4: Post: 3:04 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Thirsty Actor; 4-Noneedtoflatterme; 8-Happy Match
RACE 5: Post 3:36 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Three Eighty Eight; 4-Five Star Rampage
RACE 6: Post 4:09 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 6-Vintage Matters; 10-Black Tide
RACE 7: Post 4:41 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Rocketry; 3-Somesville; 9-Im the Captain Now
RACE 8: Post 5:13 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Lex Vegas; 2-Heckuvashot; 3-Do Share
RACE 9: Post 5:45 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-The Zip Zip Man; 3-Tiz Shea D; 9-Portando