Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, Bel) for May 7, 2017

 

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Sunday, May 7, 2017

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RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B+

Single: 8-Tina’s Exchange

The Sunday opener is a downhill turf sprint for older maidens. Tina’s Exchange figures to be a solid favorite by virtue of his excellent runner-up performance over this course and distance last month while more than five clear of the rest in a race that earned a stronger than par speed figure. The Phil D’Amato-trained gelding has been kept on edge in the a.m. since that outing and should run at least as well today and perhaps better. Let’s make him a straight play and rolling exotic single.

 

​​​RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 1-She’sluckythatway; 3-Irish Dame

Irish Dame broke her maiden in his seventh career start and then came right back to win again when surfacing for as $25,000 tag. Today she’s in for $20,000 – she’s clearly for sale and may have problems - but if the Vann Belvoir-trained daughter of Paddy O’ Prado has one good one left, she should be able to extend her winning streak to three. However, at 8/5 on the morning she’s not going to offer much value. She’sluckythatway crushed a maiden claiming field last month and earned a competitive speed figure, so if she can produce another forward move, rail and all, the Steve Miyadi-trained filly could make a serious run for it. We’ll prefer Irish Dame on top but use both in our rolling exotics.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 4-Gonzo; 5-My Uncle Al

 My Uncle Al drops into a claimer for the first time, shortens to a sprint, and returns to the main track, all factors that should allow the Mike Puype-trained gelding the kind of form needed to win this bottom-rung maiden claimer. The son of Giacomo has several speed figures that are better than par for this level, the best of which was earned two runs back under Rafael Bejarano, who’s back aboard today. Gonzo finished a solid second with a career top figure in a slightly tougher spot recently and with continued improvement could prove a danger to the logical favorite. We’ll prefer My Uncle Al on top but use both in rolling exotic play.

 

​​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 3-California Breeze; 6-Intoitagain; 7-Secret Shopper

The fourth race kicks off the Pick-6; it’s an abbreviated sprint for maiden special weight sophomore fillies that contains several first-timers and lots of question marks. We’ll try to get by using three but not with a great deal of confidence. Secret Shopper is bred to be quick (Shackleford) and has trained well enough to warrant strong consideration in an unclassified field. The Jeff Bonde barn has excellent stats with debut runners, so we’ll assume this filly is fit and ready. Intoitagain and California Breeze are both daughters of speed sire Into Mischief and both have work patterns that indicate ability. The former, from the Mark Glatt barn, brought $105,000 in Ocala a year ago where she previewed impressively but is finally making it to the races, while the latter, from the red D’Amato barn, tuned up with a recent sharp five furlong gate spin that should have her primed for a big effort first crack out of the box. We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics while giving a very slight edge on top to Secret Shopper.

 

RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: X

Single: 6-Vale Dori

Vale Dori has won five straight, four of which have been graded stakes on this circuit, and there’s no reason to believe her streak is going to end anytime soon as long as she remains in the West. The Bob Baffert-trained South American import must pack 126 lbs. today, but she’s won twice under 125 so her high weight assignment doesn’t figure to slow her down. She likes the front end but can stalk and pounce if asked, so Bejarano can play it by ear. At 3/5 on the morning line she’s unplayable in the straight pool, so we can use her as a no value rolling exotic single or simply pass the race.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 5-Life’s Blessing; 6-Mistressofthenight; 7-Pellucid

Pellucid was quite unlucky when finishing fourth, beaten three lengths, in a similar downhill turf sprint for fillies and mares last month; if she can secure a clear run today the English-bred filly looks more than capable of producing the last run. A bullet half mile workout in 46 1/5 seconds last week should have her right on edge, and with the switch to Flavien Prat the Simon Callaghan-trained import should get plenty of support at the windows. Life’s Blessing, fourth with mishap in the Santa Paula Stakes behind Union Strike, catches an easier group today while trying grass for the first time. The daughter of Tapit has rising speed figures and at this level may be strictly the one to beat. Mistressofthenight was in too tough in the Santa Paula last month while failing to land a blow, but she might be dangerous from off the pace with some help up front. This will be her first try on turf and we suspect the switch in surface won’t be an issue.

 

RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 1-Hitters Park; 2-Atomic Action

Hitters Park laid his body down in a similar starter’s allowance sprint three weeks ago but had to settle for second behind Gigantico in a fast, highly-rated race for the level. If he doesn’t bounce off that hard, taxing effort, he’ll be hard to catch despite the seven furlong trip and the rail post position. Recent maiden claiming winner Atomic Action should draft into a good stalking trip, and if Hitters Park regresses he could be the one to pick him up. His numbers are improving for Bonde, so at 5-1 on the morning line he’s worth using, at least as a saver.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 4-Madam Stripes; 7-September Stars

The eighth race is a very strong second-level allowance event for fillies and mares over nine furlongs on turf. September Stars moves up a notch after a highly-impressive win in an entry-level affair in late March in her U.S. debut, and a similar performance today makes her the one to beat despite the hike in class. The daughter of Sea the Stars displayed a wicked turn of foot to win going away with plenty left in the tank, and her workouts since that give every indication that the Paddy Gallagher-trained filly is ready for produce a forward move. Madam Stripes also was a clever winner of a first-level allowance turf affair, has trained well since for Neil Drysdale, and should appreciate today’s extra furlong. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and then have a few extra tickets keying September Stars on top.

 

RACE 9: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 2-Out of Patience; 4-Rangi; 6-Last One Standing

The finale is an extended sprint for $20,000 claimers. Out of Patience looks fairly attractive at 6-1 on the morning line; the Jorge Periban-trained gelding is a route-to-sprint, turf-to-dirt play and gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Roman. He seems most effective around one turn and could pull off a mild surprise (he’s 6-1 on the morning line) with one of his better efforts. Rangi is the likely choice and one to beat, though he just failed at 40 cents on the dollar and may not be one to trust. A repeat of his race before last buries this group, but the English-bred gelding clearly has issues and his present condition must be questioned. He’ll be the favorite, for sure, and we’ll use him but also try to beat him. Last One Standing moves up a notch after a clever win with a career top mark; he’s being brought back pretty quickly so he could bounce, but just in case he doesn’t we’ll have him on a ticket or two.

 

 

BELMONT PARK

Sunday, May 7, 2017

 

​RACE 1: Post 1:30 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Courtmewithcarats; 4-Code Red

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​​RACE 2: Post 2:01 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 2-Chamois; 4-King of Spades; 9-Husband’s Folly

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RACE 3: Post 2:32 ET. Grade: X

Single: 5-Tu Brutus

​​​RACE 4: Post: 3:04 ET. Grade: B

Use: 4-Maddizaskar; 6-Riot Worthy

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​RACE 5: Post 3:36 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Double Mane; 3-Carolina Charge; 4-Quesney’s Angel

​​​RACE 6: Post 4:09 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Tombelaine; 4-Chiltern Street; 12-Poshky

​​RACE 7: Post 4:41 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 1-Decorator Jenn; 2-Royal Inheritance

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​​​RACE 8: Post 5:13 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 5-Chief Lion; 6-Still Krz; 8-Stallwalkin’ Dude

RACE 9: Post 5:45 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 5-Light the Vow; 8-Quai Voltaire; 11-Brooklyn Speights

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, Bel) for May 7, 2017

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